GOVERNMENT REFORM PROPOSAL

1
GOVERNMENT REFORM PROPOSAL

• Changing the rules of politics in Michigan to
  help Democrats

2
The problem A historical view

• Democrats have not controlled the entire State
  Legislature in 25 years
• Democrats have never controlled the Governor,
  Senate and House when redistricting has occurred
  in the modern one person/one vote era,
  1965-present
• Since World War II (62 years), Democrats have
  controlled the Governor, Senate and House
  simultaneously for one year 1983

3
The result

• Democrats have been reduced to a de-facto
  permanent legislative minority in Lansing,
  especially since 1990
• Democratic constituencies -- women, minorities,
  labor, consumers, the poor and environmentalists
  -- have little voice in the Legislature on issues
  such as
• Tort law Kreiner
• Campaign finance reform
• Health care reform
• Civil rights
• Canadian trash
• Etc.

4
The problem Redistricting

• Redistricting Definition
• The process by which legislative district lines
  are drawn for 10 years
• In 2002, this process was controlled by
  Republicans and led to a gerrymandered
  reapportionment plan that favored Republicans
• The next redistricting happens in 2011-12 and
  will be in effect for 2012-2021

5
Redistricting Process

• Must control Governor, Senate, House and Supreme
  Court to control the process as MIGOP did in
  2001-02 Democrats have never controlled all four
  simultaneously in a redistricting year
• Control of Supreme Court most important Court
  can overturn redistricting done by the other three

6
Redistricting Criteria

• Focus on preserving county, city and township
  boundaries
• NCEC and other studies show these criteria
  systematically biased against Democrats

7
The problem Democrats unlikely to control
redistricting in 2011-12

• 2010 elections will use the Senate and House
  districts gerrymandered against Democrats in 2002
• Many legislative Democrats in marginal districts
  term limited out in 2010
• Mid-term election Democratic turnout lower
• Continuing political fallout of 2007 Democratic
  tax increase votes
• Governors seat is open in 2010
• Democrats must defeat two of three incumbent GOP
  Justices up for re-election in 2008 and 2010 at
  10 million per election in the face of ballot
  incumbency designation an incumbent Justice has
  not been defeated since 1984

8
Controlling redistricting by typical elections

• Controlling redistricting in 2011 by winning
  Governor, Senate, House and Supreme Court (or
  even just the Supreme Court) is an extremely
  expensive and very long shot proposition

9
The problem 2010 and beyond

• Without significant reform of legislative
  redistricting and the Supreme Court before 2010,
  the historical pattern will continue
• Michigan Democrats likely will not control
  Michigan State Government during 2012-2021
• GOP control of Governor, Senate and House is more
  likely than Democratic controlin 2010-2020
  another Engler era quite possible
• Harm to Democratic constituencies will continue
  labor and tort reform, erosion of civil rights
  and environmental protections, budget cuts,
  privatization

10
Redistricting reform in 2008 or 2010?

• Redistricting reform by itself will not be
  approved by the voters
• As failed ballot proposals during 2005 in
  California and Ohio demonstrate, redistricting
  reform by itself is very difficult to enact
  complex topic, issue becomes partisan
• To succeed, redistricting reform must be a small
  part of a larger, popular state government reform
  proposal

11
The path to change the political rules
Streamline state government

• In 2008, use the publics very negative mood and
  high level of discouragement about state
  government (the worst in 25 years) to enact a
  ballot proposal which comprehensively reforms
  state government, including changing the
  structural obstacles to Democratic control of
  state government in 2012-2021

12
Research

• Focus groups
• Polling
• Ballot testing
• Affordable way test a specific ballot proposal by
  giving voters the actual ballot language and
  re-create the voting process as faithfully as
  possible

13
The bleak mood of Michigan

• Based on nine focus groups and two statewide
  polls from May-October 2007 performed by
  Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
• 82 believe Michigan on wrong track
• Highest wrong track in 27 years of polling
• 12 approval of legislative job performance
• 25 approval of governors job performance
• 66 oppose recent tax increases

14
Quinlan environment is ripe

• The current environment in Michigan is ripe for
  enacting major reforms to the state government.
• voters express broad support for a package of
  reforms to all three branches of the government
  and the electoral process.
• They support these reforms because they make
  government more accountable for its actions and
  get government back to focusing on the most
  important problems.
• Voters react very favorably when introduced to
  the proposed ballot initiative. In the focus
  groups, about three-quarters of participants say
  they would vote for it, and similarly,
  respondents in the survey begin with nearly
  four-to-one support, 77 to 20 percent.

15
Reforming the Legislative Branch

• Legislators benefits after leaving office to be
  the same as retired state employees
• Stop the revolving door between the Legislature
  and lobbying with one- or two-year lobbying ban
• Require annual public disclosure of income and
  assets by all legislators
• Reduce legislative salaries by 25 percent back
  to 2002 levels

16
Reforming the Legislative Branch

• Reduce the Senate from 38 to 28 and the House
  from 110 to 82
• Redistricting done once per decade by a
  nine-person nonpartisan commission
• Commission must create equal number of Democratic
  and Republican leaning districts, while also
  creating swing districts
• No judicial appeals

17
Reforming the Judicial Branch

• Judicial benefits after leaving office to be the
  same as retired state employees
• Reduce judicial salaries by 25 percent
• Toughen disciplinary and conflict of interest
  requirements
• Require annual public disclosure of income and
  assets for all judges and justices

18
Reforming the Judicial Branch

• Add 10 judges to the lower courts
• Reduce the number of Supreme Court Justices from
  seven to five two GOP Justices eliminated
• Reduce the Court of Appeals from 28 to 20 judges,
  most of them Engler appointees

19
Reforming the Executive Branch

• Benefits after leaving office for the four
  statewide elected officials to be the same as
  retired state employees
• Reduce the salaries of the four statewide elected
  officials by 25 percent
• Stop the revolving door between the executive
  branch and lobbying
• Require annual public disclosure of income and
  assets for the four statewide elected officials

20
Reforming the Executive Branch

• Reduce the constitutional cap on the number of
  state government departments from 20 to 18
• Reduce the number (250) of state boards and
  commissions to 200

21
Election reforms

• Make the Bureau of Elections independent of
  partisanship
• Allow no-reason absentee voting.
• Require post-election audits of election
  procedures
• Require paper trails for all voting systems
• Ban election official campaign role(s)
• Enact anti-fraud measures
• Prohibit illegal immigrants from registering and
  voting

22
Quinlan Analysis of Ballot Proposal

• Disclosure, reduced salaries and benefits are the
  most well-received proposals
• Overwhelmingly, voters are favorable toward some
  of the changes affecting judges, statewide
  elected officials, and legislators
• Annually disclose income and assets (66 percent
  strongly support, 83 percent total support)
• Reduce health care benefits after leaving office
  (59 percent strongly support, 76 percent total
  support)
• Reduce their salaries by 25 percent (57 percent
  strongly support, 76 percent total support)

23
Quinlan Analysis of Ballot Proposal

• Voters feel that theyve suffered a lot in this
  economic recession, and that the government
  should share in their burden.
• Voters are also supportive of reducing the number
  of state boards and commissions from 250 to 200
  (52 percent strongly support, 80 percent
  support).

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Keep but reduce both houses

• Reducing both houses is the most favorable way to
  cut the Legislature
• Voters have reservations about a unicameral
  Legislature
• Dramatic change with no foreseeable benefits
• Also reservations on part-time legislature
• Voters want a legislature that is working
  overtime to help move the state in a better
  direction, not one that is scaled back in its
  commitment to the state
• The survey confirms that voters are generally
  favorable to reducing both houses, and attacks
  that it would create political mayhem generate
  just mild concerns

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Legislative redistricting

• Voters initially favored the redistricting
  reforms, 75-22
• Maintained majority support even after a series
  of tough attacks based on illegal immigration,
  cost and implementation
• The key to its passage is packaging it with the
  other very popular reforms

26
Term limits taint entire proposal

• Voters do not favor expanding term limits
• Including a term limits repeal or revision could
  tank the reform proposal
• 60 percent of voters say expanding term limits to
  12 years in each house would make them less
  likely to vote for the proposal
• Only 33 percent said expansion of term limits
  would make them more likely to vote for the
  proposal

27
Reorganizing the courts

• One half of those surveyed heard the judicial
  cuts as originally proposed (cuts only)
• Cutting Supreme Court 50 percent favor, 40
  percent oppose
• Cutting Court of Appeals 58 percent favor, 31
  percent oppose
• Other half heard an alternative plan to
  reorganize the number of judges at each level
  (cut Appellate and Supreme Court while adding
  local judges)
• Reorganizing courts 70 percent favor, 20 percent
  oppose
• This preference for an adjustment in the courts
  instead of cuts fits with the core of this
  proposal making the government more accountable
  and focused on the states priorities

28
Executive changes well-received

• Voters react favorably to the proposed cuts to
  the executive branch.
• 52 percent of voters say that they strongly favor
  reducing the number of state boards and
  commissions from 250 to 200
• 45 percent say they strongly favor reducing the
  number of state government departments from 20 to
  18.

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Election reforms

• Election reforms are popular, according to
  polling from 2005-06
• Can pass as part of a package
• However, allowing registration on Election Day or
  within 30 days of an election jeopardizes the
  proposal
• Anti-fraud and illegal immigrant provisions added
  to preempt attacks

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Budget Petition drive

• 500,000 Signatures 1,250,000
• (10 of 2006 gubernatorial vote 25 cushion)
• x 2.50/signature
• (includes printing)
• Legal 150,000
• Drafting petition
• Board of Canvassers
• Litigation
• _at_ 300/hr. x 500 hrs.)
• Staff supervision of petition drive MDP
  in-kind
• Compliance MDP in-kind
• Petition total 1,400,000

31
Budget Fall campaign

• Media (3 weeks statewide TV) 2,500,000
• Phone-mail-phone (targeted _at_ women) 475,000
• Literature (1,000,000 x 0.10) 100,000
• Polling (1 baseline and 3 trackers) 55,000
• Administration (office, computers, phones, etc.)
  40,000
• Compliance MDP in-kind
• Legal (350/hr. x 100 hrs.) 35,000
• Staff 306,000
• Director (8 months _at_ 7,000/mo.) 56,000
• Deputy Director (6 mos. _at_ 6,000/mo.) 36,000
• Communications Director (8 mos. _at_ 5,500/mo.)
  44,000
• Press Secretary (6 mos. _at_ 5,000/mo.) 30,000
• Fundraisers (2 for 6 mos. _at_ 5,000/mo.) 60,000
• Volunteer Coordinator (4 mos. _at_ 4,000/mo.)
  16,000
• Taxes 27,000
• Health Insurance (500/mo.) 22,000
• Mileage 15,000
• Campaign total 3,511,000

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Grand total

• Petition drive 1,400,000
• Fall campaign 3,511,000
• Total 4,911,000

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Budget analysis

• Less than half the cost of trying to beat an
  incumbent GOP Supreme Court Justice
• More is spent every four years trying to win the
  House and Senate, usually unsuccessfully
• Less than half the cost of a presidential
  election year Coordinated Campaign
• If the proposal passes, it will reduce the cost
  and increase the prospects of winning the State
  Legislature every cycle

34
Calendar

• Dec. 2007 Jan. 2008
• Petition drafting
• By Feb. 1, 2008
• Petition drive begins
• July 7, 2008
• Signatures due