The Art and Science of Predicting Volcanoes

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The Art and Science of Predicting Volcanoes!

• Is it possible for scientists to predict when a
  volcano will erupt next?
• Alicia Muirhead

This paper will discuss different methods for
predicting volcanoes. Methods range from simple
observations to sophisticated, involving newly
developed techniques and equipment. The paper
will include examples of the different
measurement techniques currently being used and
their potential to predict an eruption.
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Signs of a Pending Eruption

• Earthquakes
• Rising pressure due to magma levels rising
• High gas emissions
• Swelling in the slopes
• Sounds of movement and explosions from within the
  volcano

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Gas Emissions

• Gases from the volcano are monitored
• Sulfur Dioxide, Carbon Dioxide, and Hydrogen
  Sulfide
• Steam from ground water/snow
• Rising gas levels indicate magma moving towards
  or near the surface

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Moving Walls

• Tiltmeters detect the slightest movements in the
  slope of the volcano
• Radar satellites can be used to detect swelling
• Movement means that gas and magma are moving into
  the chambers of the volcano

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Ground Shifts

• Global-positioning instruments document movements
  created by building pressure
• Pressure created by a cap or dome
• Rocks crack under the mounting pressure

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Earthquakes

• Seismometers are in various locations
• Detect the tiny tremors caused by moving magma
  and shifting rock
• The more quakes means that an eruption could
  happen soon

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Explosions

• Microphones are positioned around the top of the
  volcano
• They listen for material being ejected at high
  speeds within chambers
• Material is moved by the rising magma

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Previous Eruptions

• Scientists can look at the layers of lava and
  pyroclastic flow in the area and date them
• Sometimes a pattern can be formed
• Not a precise method

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New and More Accurate Predictions

• Bernard Chouet discovered that monitoring sound
  patterns can help one to predict an eruption
• Tremors that originate in molten rock move
  through underground channels like air through a
  pipe organ
• Chouet predicted the eruption of Mt. Redoubt in
  Alaska just days before it occurred

• This is a very promising new method of prediction

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Conclusion

• Although scientists are still not able to
  reliably predict volcanoes, new methods are being
  developed and tested that will make predictions
  more accurate in the future