P1249325488pulVD

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21st ECRS Kosice, 2008
Cosmic Rays and Global Warming
A.D.Erlykin1,2, G. Gyalai3, K. Kudela3, T. Sloan4
and A.W. Wolfendale2
1. Lebedev, Moscow 2. University, Durham 3.
Academy, Kosice 4. University, Lancaster
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Low cloud cover anomalies and CR
intensity (Huancayo) Svensmark (2007)
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Global monthly cloud anomalies (Svensmark, 2007)
(a)
a high clouds (lt440 h Pa) b middle (440
680 h Pa) c low (gt680 h Pa)
(b)
(c)
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A Basic Problem for LCC, CR correlation
Typical Cumulus
sharp transition
0.4km
diffuse transition
Much of CR-induced cloud will be below ( and
above ) the existing cloud and will not
contribute to the measured LCC.
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Peak to peak 11 year cycle in NM data vs VRCO
compared with ionization calculations of Usoskin
and Kovaltsov (2006).
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NM
Us. et al.
Dip depth vs VRCO
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Ions as condensation centres for clouds ?
But
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Effect of charge and radius on supersaturation. 5
x 10-18g of dissolved salt.
Z 0
Z 1000
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Charges on drops
A literature survey gives the following mean
charges (e) in the normal atmosphere
Can be much higher in thunderclouds.
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Evidence from radioactive events
Chernobyl
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Nuclear Bomb Tests
Eg. BRAVO - Bikini Atoll, March 1, 1954.
15 Mt radioactive particles, 10 -
100?
300 miles from Ground Zero, dose rate 100
Rh-1, after 4 days. Yields 5.107 ions cm-3 s-1
Averaging over space and time and allowing for
size distribution yields.
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Radon
Radon is an important contributor to
atmospheric ionization over land. Indian hot
spots, particularly in the SW. Scans of low CC
over two regions show no excess and
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Cosmic rays or Solar Irradiance ?
SSN
Evidence from the power spectra
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CR and its power spectrum
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Low Cloud Cover
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Temperature Changes
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CR change over last 40 years too small to
affect temperature.
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Different responses of clouds to solar input
- Voiculescu et al. (2006)
Faction of Globe having correlation of CC with UV
or CR ionization ( correln. minus correln.)
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Time dependence of cloud cover
Extended Edited Cloud Report Archive (Warren
Hahn via Norris, 2004), in comparison with Climax
CR rate.
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Cloud Top Pressure
Extra solar energy at SSN max. increases cloud
heights and increases HCC. Just as expected for
SI opposite to expectation for Cosmic Ray
Ionization.
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Conclusions
Causal correlation of LCC and CR highly unlikely,
because
1. Cloud Geometry saturation. 2. Radon,
Chernobyl Bomb tests no signal. 3. Charges on
condensation nuclei far too small. 4. No change
of dip with CR rigidity. 5. High Cloud Cover in
anti-phase with CR. 6. HCC vs time (last 50
years) anti-correlated with CR.
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LCC and SI probably related because
1. Power spectra match better than for LCC
CR. 2. Energetics much more reasonable (108 x).
3. Geographical distribution of stronger
correlations, fits LCC vs SI. 4. From 1960 to
present Temperature profile fits SSN better
than CR.