North Korea prospects for peace

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North Korea prospects for peace

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Drugs, counterfeit cigarettes, counterfeit currency ... Military is strong but western observers discount possibility of coup ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: North Korea prospects for peace


1
North Korea - prospects for peace
  • Tim Beal
  • Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
  • United Nations Association, Wellington
  • Thurs 12 July 2007

2
Setting the scene
  • Thanks
  • Title
  • Why not US Prospects for Peace?
  • A brace of characters

3
This (real) gentleman
4
Met a fictitious one in 1757
  • The occasion?
  • Admiral John Byngs execution
  • Fictitious one Voltaires Candide

5
John Byng and Candide
  • Byng is executed
  • in this country, it is wise to kill an admiral
    from time to time to encourage the others
  • Byng was not close enough to the French fleet,
    but Candide asked
  • Werent the French as far from the English, as
    the English from the French?

6
US - NK US
  • Just as NK is as far from US as US is from NK, so
    negotiation has two sides
  • Media exclusively focuses on denuclearisation of
    NK
  • What does NK think?
  • Two aspects

7
NK on denuclearisation
  • Not just NK but SK and other countries (i.e. US)
    in respect of Korean peninsula
  • US nuclear weapons in SK land and waters, and
    long-range weapons elsewhere
  • Nuclear programme to
  • Deter US from attack
  • Force US to drop hostility

8
Hostility
  • NK wants US to accept peaceful coexistence
  • Lift sanctions
  • Large responsibly for devastation of economy
  • Hundreds of thousands of deaths
  • Malnutrition
  • Barrier to rehabilitation and development
  • In effect, adhere to UN charter
  • Let us ask Candidian awkward questions

9
The importance of questions
  • Often it is the asking of questions that is
    important
  • The answer falls into place
  • Similar to the little boy observing that the
    emperor was naked
  • Power does not like questions

10
The portrayal of things
  • Events and issues are often portrayed as if the
    received interpretation is unquestionable
  • Vital to ask naive questions
  • Such as?

11
Examples
  • Which country threatens peace, NK or US?
  • Which country threatens the other, NK or US?
  • Does US have a moral right to nuclear weapons
    denied to NK?
  • If we are concerned about nuclear weapons, should
    we not look at the country which has 10,000
    rather than the country which has none?

12
In this spirit let us examine some issues
  • NK, US and the UN
  • NK Missile tests July 2006
  • NK Nuclear test October 2006
  • US allegations about UNDP in NK January 2007
  • BDA affair
  • Agreement of 13 February 2007
  • Prospects for peace

13
Forthcoming article
  • December issue of NZ Journal of Asian Studies

14
Tests gtresolutions
  • Both sets of tests led to unanimous
    condemnatory resolutions, imposing sanctions
  • Unanimous is misleading
  • Opposition from China and Russia but veto is out
    of fashion
  • Water down and then often ignore

15
South Korea
  • Also opposed but
  • Does not have a veto
  • Cannot openly defy US
  • Caught in dilemma and does contradictory things
  • Eg suspends aid but continues Kaesong Industrial
    Complex

16
Missile tests
  • July 2006 gtgtJapanese sponsored resolution 1695

17
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18
Candide would be bemused
  • Reaffirming that proliferation of nuclear,
    chemical and biological weapons, as well as their
    means of delivery, constitutes a threat to
    international peace and security,
  • Why proliferation rather than possession
  • Once you ask the question you know the answer
  • US possesses, US enemies proliferate

19
Why concern at NK ballistic missiles?
  • Expressing grave concern at the launch of
    ballistic missiles by the Democratic Peoples
    Republic of Korea (DPRK), given the potential of
    such systems to be used as a means to deliver
    nuclear, chemical or biological payloads,

20
Candides questions
  • Dont all missiles (even US ones) have this
    potential?
  • Why specify ballistic missiles rather than
    missiles?
  • NK missiles are ballistic, US tends to employ
    non-ballistic (i.e. cruise) missiles
  • Britain alone has up to 2000 Storm Shadow and
    unknown number of Tomahawks

21
Moratorium
  • Registering profound concern at the DPRKs
    breaking of its pledge to maintain its moratorium
    on missile launching,
  • Wasnt this moratorium (Clinton 1999)
    self-imposed and contingent on US negotiations on
    issue continuing?
  • Bush had broken off negotiations

22
Missile tests
  • Not illegal
  • Very common
  • For instance in period June-November 2006 many
    countries conducted tests of long range missiles
  • Minor tests and exercises not reported
  • Unless NK

23
Tests
  • France
  • India
  • Pakistan
  • Russia
  • US
  • 3 tests of Minuteman missiles across Pacific
  • UK
  • No major tests but decided to replace Trident

24
October nuclear test
  • UN condemnation replicated double standards of
    July
  • US currently does not conduct physical tests but
    may return to it
  • Developing new generation of nuclear weapons and
    delivery systems
  • Policy of first use
  • And the track record

25
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26
Purpose of NK tests
  • Force US back into negotiations
  • In abeyance because of BDA affair
  • Combined with other factors was successful
  • Middle East
  • Mid-term elections
  • Negotiations were resumed and this led to
    Agreement of 13 February 2007

27
BDA and UNDP affairs
  • This agreement was to implement the initial
    stages of the Joint Statement of 19 September
    2005
  • JS had been suspended by the Banco Delta Asia
    (BDA) affair
  • In Sept 2005 US Treasury designated BDA as a
    primary money laundering concern under Section
    311 of the USA Patriot Act

28
BDA charges
  • Treasury claimed that BDA was laundering
    hundreds of millions of dollars for NK
  • Drugs, counterfeit cigarettes, counterfeit
    currency
  • Produced no evidence, even in private to SK or
    China
  • Audit by Ernst Young cleared BDA

29
Reasons for BDA action
  • Derail Joint Statement/ Six Party Talks
  • Warning or test against China
  • Exercise of extraterritoriality against Chinese
    bank on Chinese territory
  • Practice at using Patriot Act against other
    enemies eg Iran

30
Effect of BDA
  • Froze 25m NK money in BDA accounts
  • More important, expelled NK from international
    banking system
  • financial sanctions

31
Treasury/State conflict
  • From late 2006 to date there has been a battle
    between Treasury and State
  • Rice apparently got Bushs agreement to negotiate
    with NK and lift financial sanctions
  • Talks in Berlin January 2007gtgtAgreement of 13
    February
  • Financial sanctions to be lifted in 30 days

32
Treasury down but not out
  • Treasury forced to unfreeze accounts but barred
    BDA from US banking system
  • Ensuring sanctions remained
  • Four months struggle by State to lift sanctions
    so Agreement could go ahead
  • Successful?
  • For the moment yes

33
Meanwhile, UNDP affair
  • January 2007 Deputy U.S. Ambassador to UN Mark
    Wallace alleged that NK was diverting hundreds of
    millions of dollars from UNDP operations there
  • Also complained that UNDP was paying local staff
    in hard currency
  • Wallace
  • Protégé of John Bolton

34
UNDP rebuts charges
  • If it paid in won it would need to buy that with
    hard currency, so effect would be the same
  • It was only spending a few million in NK each year

35
Ban Ki-moon
  • Ban widely seen as Americas man immediately
    order external audits on UN operation in NK
  • 1 June Ban announces audit clears UNDP
  • US returns to attack with fresh charges

36
Charges flimsy
  • One was NK had spent money on embassy property
    abroad at same time as UNDP had been spending
    money in NK
  • But currency is fungible
  • To Mr. Wallaces charge that the program had
    transferred 7 million to its counterpart agency
    in the North Korean government, the program said
    that the amount actually had been 175,000 and
    that most of it had gone for workshops on
    vegetable growing and seed processing

37
Even ridiculous
  • Most risible was complaint that UNDP had funded a
    project on arms control and disarmament, and
    supplied books
  • The one the Americans singled out was

38
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39
End of Western civilization?
  • Jacques E. C. Hymans
  • Smith College, Massachusetts
  • Cambridge University Press
  • 17.99

40
Prospects for peace
  • Positions of governments
  • Power of governments
  • Rogue elements

41
Japan
  • Wants crisis to continue in order to facilitate
    remilitarisation (and perhaps nuclearisation)
  • Uses abduction issue
  • NK wants Japan out of Six Party Talks
  • SK, (Russia, China) and even Rice have expressed
    annoyance at Japanese

42
China and Russia
  • Want peaceful resolution
  • Want NK to survive and thrive

43
SK
  • Wants peaceful resolution
  • Wants NK to survive, develop and eventually unify
    with SK
  • Even opposition GNP softening its line on NK

44
NK
  • Peaceful coexistence with US
  • Removal of US military threat
  • Lifting of sanctions and barriers to economic
    development

45
US
  • Much more difficult to pin down
  • Ambivalent, incoherent, fluctuating
  • Depends on who has bushs ear at any particular
    time

46
Power of governments
  • Unlikely that there are rogue elements to
    disrupt policy
  • China, Russia (for war)
  • Japan (for peace)
  • However Abe unpopular and Upper House election 29
    July
  • The Koreas?

47
NK
  • No doubt some/many in military would prefer
    present situation to continue or are worried
    about danger of détente
  • Giving up nuclear deterrent is no easy thing
  • Cf discussion in Britain
  • No sign of effective opposition to Kim Jong Il

48
Kim Jong Il
  • How long will he continue?
  • 65
  • Reports of bad health - diabetes, heart disease,
    operations
  • However, photo of meeting with Chinese FM on 3
    July indicates he is well, and has lost weight

49
Kim and Chinese FM Yang Jiechi
50
South Korea
  • Military is strong but western observers discount
    possibility of coup
  • Incidents may be another matter
  • Defusing of tension will disadvantage right in
    forthcoming Presidential elections

51
United States
  • Bush and Strategic incoherence
  • Who speaks for US government
  • State or Treasury?
  • Bush, Cheney, Rice.?

52
mixed signals on Terrorism List
  • In Feb Agreement US agreed to remove NK from
    terrorism list
  • 27 April press conference with Abe Shinzo Bush
    said that dependent on Japanese satisfaction on
    abductee issue
  • Ie never
  • However Rice told Abe that abductions no bar to
    delisting

53
Prospects for peace
  • Mainly depends on US
  • Washington is unpredictable
  • Depends on who has the ear of the president
  • There are also two landmines
  • Financial sanctions
  • Heavy enriched uranium

54
Financial sanctions
  • No certain that they have really been removed
  • Treasury is still powerful
  • NK has hinted that it is watching progress, but
    is for the moment giving Hill the benefit of the
    doubt

55
HEU
  • Ostensible reason for Bush tearing up Agreed
    Framework that Clinton had signed
  • Claimed NK had clandestine uranium weapons
    programme
  • Hill has backtracked somewhat but difficult to
    see how NK (or Hill) can satisfy US right

56
Prospects
  • Unstable, lame duck administration, beset with
    difficulties
  • Washington full of important people, in and out
    of office, who oppose settlement with NK
  • And then there are the landmines
  • Prospects are problematic

57
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