Voting and Elections

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Voting and Elections
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• October 29, 2007

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Republican Candidates (2008)
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• Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City
• Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas
• Duncan Hunter, U.S. Representative
• Alan Keyes, former U.S. Ambassador to the United
  Nations Economic and Social Council
• John McCain, U.S. Senator from Arizona
• Ron Paul, U.S. Representative from Texas and 1988
  Libertarian Presidential nominee
• Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
• Tom Tancredo, U.S. Representative from Colorado
• Fred Thompson, former U.S. Senator from Tennessee

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Democratic Candidates (2008)

• Joe Biden, U.S. Senator from Delaware
• Hillary Clinton, U.S. Senator from New York and
  former First Lady
• Christopher Dodd, U.S. Senator from Connecticut
• John Edwards, former U.S. Senator from North
  Carolina and 2004 Democratic Vice Presidential
  candidate
• Mike Gravel, former U.S. Senator from Alaska
• Dennis Kucinich, U.S. Representative from Ohio
• Barack Obama, U.S. Senator from Illinois
• Bill Richardson, Governor of New Mexico and
  former Secretary of Energy

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Who decides who the party nominee will be?
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• In the past, party activists made the decision at
  the national convention
• Now (since the 1970s) voters decide through
  caucuses and primaries
• These contests determine how many delegates a
  candidate receives.
• The rules play a role in influencing what types
  of candidates will win

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Caucus
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• A meeting of candidate supporters
• Democratic caucuses allow any registered
  Democratic to participate
• Republican caucuses are less open some limit
  participation to party officials and workers
• Systems used include winner-take-all and PR

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Primaries
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• Elections to decide nominees
• Closed primaries
• Only party members can vote
• Open primaries
• Any registered voter can select a partys primary
  and vote in it

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Shorter Primaries
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• Schedule for the 2008 Presidential Primaries

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Iowa and NH can help the Underdog
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• Underdogs (outsiders) have seen their support
  rise from an early win in Iowa and NH.
• Carter in 1976 (up 12 percent)
• Hart in 1984 (up 27 percent)
• Tsongas in 1992 (up 26 percent)
• Buchanan in 1996 (up 20 percent)
• McCain in 2000 (up 15 percent)

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Expectations in NH
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Source NH Poll, American Research
Group http//americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/
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Voters in New Hampshire
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Impact of New Hampshire Primary
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Front loading
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• 70 of all delegates are chosen before the end of
  March
• Benefits the front runner
• Benefits the candidate who can raise the bulk of
  the money before the nomination process
• Increases the importance of the invisible
  primarythe year prior to the official
  nomination season when candidates raise money

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Why do early primaries play such a large role?
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• Importance of momentum
• Those who are expected to win receive more news
  coverage and more contributions
• This makes it easier for front runners to win and
  more difficult for followers to catch up.

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Consequences
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• Carter was the only candidate to win the Iowa
  caucus and go on to win the nomination (prior to
  2004)
• In every year since 1980 the front-running
  candidate who led in the last poll conducted
  before Iowa still ended up winning the
  nomination.
• Compact schedule (front loading) can kill the
  momentum from New Hampshire

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Deck is stacked against outsiders, under dogs
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• Half of the Republican delegates awarded after
  the first six weeks.
• News coverage and public interest fades shortly
  after the primary season begins

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Example of the Consequences of Front-loading in
2000
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1,034 delegates needed to win