Nuclear Weapons: From the Cold War to the Present

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Nuclear Weapons From the Cold War to the
Present
The views expressed are solely those of the
author and do not represent the views of the Air
Force Research Institute

• Dr. Adam B. Lowther
• Research Faculty
• Air Force Research Institute

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The Atom Bomb

• The Manhattan Project (1939-1946)

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Hiroshima and Nagasaki
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Continued

• Video 1 Video 2

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Schelling v. Kahn
V.
Counter-force v. Counter-value
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Deterrence

• Deterrence The prevention from action by fear of
  the consequences. Deterrence is a state of mind
  brought about by the existence of a credible
  threat of unacceptable counter-action.DoD
• Deterrence, on the other hand, involves
  preventing an action that has not yet
  materialized from occurring in the first
  place.Byman, Waxman, and Larson

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Dissuasion

• This report defines dissuasion as actions taken
  to increase the targets perception of the
  anticipated costs and/or decrease its perception
  of the likely benefits from developing,
  expanding, or otherwise undesirable from a US
  perspective.Krepinevich and Martinage
• Dissuasion is the flip side of the popular
  recommendation that the U.S. strategic force
  choices be informed by the expectation that U.S.
  restraint would inspire opponents restraint, a
  la the action-reaction model. With dissuasion,
  the contention is that in some cases active U.S.
  acquisition policies rather than inaction will
  discourage opponents from competitionPayne

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Denial

• The fear of being captured or killed may serve
  as a punitive threat, and the expectation of
  serious operational challenges with the prospect
  of mission failure may lead an opponent to
  another course, or to postpone its action until
  success seems more likelyi.e., deterrence by
  denial.Payne
• Denying the target the possibility of achieving
  benefits can compel abandonment of only those
  specific interests.Pape

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Threat

• The power to hurt.Schelling
• An expression of intention to inflict evil,
  injury, or damage.Webster

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Compellence

• Compellence involves attempts to reverse an
  action that has already occurred or to otherwise
  overturn the status quo, such as evicting an
  aggressor from territory it has just conquered or
  convincing a proliferating state to abandon its
  existing nuclear weapons program.Byman, Waxman,
  and Larson
• The threat that compels rather than deters often
  requires that the punishment be administered
  until the other acts, rather than if he
  acts.--Schelling

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Shaping Model
Possible Examples
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Means
Active and Passive Defense
Global Strike
Global Situational Awareness
Force Projection
Strategic Communication
ISR/Spacelift
Air Refueling and Airlift
Information Operations
Counter air, land, sea, and space
Strategic Attack, Special Operations, Air
Refueling
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Abolitionists

• The Cold War is over. The United States must
  reduce and eliminate its nuclear arsenal.
• Terrorism is the real threat facing the United
  States, not nuclear war.
• As long as there are nuclear weapons there is a
  threat of accidental detonation, miscalculation
  leading to war, and proliferation.
• Conventional PGMs can accomplish the same
  objectives as nuclear weapons.
• 1,000 is enough.

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Modernizers

• Every President since George H. W. Bush has
  revised American nuclear weapons policy (START,
  SORT, de-alerting bombers, etc)
• 199124,000
• 20095,400
• 20102,200-1,700
• Terrorism is the most recent threat, but not a
  threat to sovereignty.
• There has never EVER been an accidental
  detonation, nuclear war from miscalculation, or
  transfer of nuclear weapons.
• Conventional weapons do not achieve the same
  psychological effect as nuclear weapons.
• Nuclear weapons cause their owners to become risk
  averse, not risk acceptant. (India v. Pakistan)
• No nuclear powers have ever fought one another.
• Nuclear weapons are inanimate objects they have
  no moral standing.

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Dr. Strangelove

• Video