Southern California Earthquake Center Transition

1
Topics

• Brief Introduction (motivation)
• Overview of framework
• How to add new site-effect modules?
• Adding vector-valued analysis
• and/or waveform modeling?
• (5) Interface to loss codes?

2
Status of Seismic Hazard Analysis (SHA)

• SHA needs a more physics based approach to
  modeling.
• Lack of consensus means well have multiple
  options.
• All viable models need to be considered for
  proper SHA.
• SHA needs a computational infrastructure capable
  of handling a potentially great number of
  arbitrarily complex models
• (a Community Modeling
  Environment).

3
Goal of SHA
The probability that some
Intensity-Measure Type (e.g. Spectral
Acceleration) will exceed a specified
Intensity-Measure Level
(e.g. 0.5 g)
4
SHA has two model components
5
More physics multiple models
No consensus on how to build these types of
models.
Thus, the RELM working group is developing a
variety.
6
More physics multiple models

• Intensity-Measure Relationship (IMR)

Gives Prob(IMTIML) for a given site and
fault-rupture event
Attenuation Relationships (traditional) (no
physics)
Lack of physics can lead to non-physical results
(e.g., a mean PGA of 14 g predicted for the Yucca
Mt Repository).
7
More physics multiple models

• Intensity-Measure Relationship (IMR)

Gives Prob(IMTIML) for a given site and
fault-rupture event
Potentially more accurate, but
Computation limits with respect analyzing many
scenarios, high frequencies, and uncertainties
associated with the structural model and slip
distribution.
8
More physics multiple models
9
Status of Seismic Hazard Analysis (SHA)

• SHA needs more physics
• Lack of consensus means well have multiple
  options

10
Status of Seismic Hazard Analysis (SHA)

• SHA needs more physics
• Lack of consensus means well have multiple
  options
• All viable models need to be considered for
  proper SHA (SSHAC Report, 1995)

To account for epistemic uncertainties in the
hazard estimate. We have yet to achieve this.
11
Status of Seismic Hazard Analysis (SHA)

• SHA needs more physics
• Lack of consensus means well have multiple
  options
• All viable models need to be considered for
  proper SHA (SSHAC Report, 1995)
• SHA needs a computational infrastructure capable
  of handling a potentially great number of
  arbitrarily complex models (a Community Modeling
  Environment)

OpenSHA SCEC ITR CME
12
OpenSHA
A framework where any arbitrarily complex (e.g.,
physics based) SHA component can plug in for
end-to-end SHA calculations.

• open source
• object oriented
• platform ind.
• web/GUI enabled
• distributed (potentially)
• Java (or wrapped code)
• validated

13
OpenSHA
SHA Models Implemented
Intensity-Measure Relationships (Attenuation
Relationships) Boore et al. (1997) Abrahamson
Silva (1997) Campbell (1997) Sadigh et al.
(1997) Field (2000) Abrahamson (2000) Campbell
Bazorgnia (2003) ShakeMap (2003) SEA (Spudich et
al., 1999) USGS Combined (2004) Wells
Coppersmith (1994)
Earthquake Rupture Forecasts PEER Area PEER
Non-Planar Fault PEER Multi-Source PEER Logic
Tree Poisson Fault ERF Fault Rupture ERF USGS/CGS
(1996) STEP So. Cal. (2003) STEP Alaska Pipeline
(2003) WGCEP (2002) USGS/CGS (2002)
14
OpenSHA
Applications Available
(to anyone from www.OpenSHA.org)
3) Hazard Map Data Calculator
4) Hazard Map Plotter
15
Advanced IT Elements
(made possible by the SCEC ITR collaboration)
A) Components can be geographically distributed
(using web-services and distributed object
technologies)

• Wills et al. (2000) map and CVM (for setting site
  types)
• GMT Map Making Service
• Earthquake Rupture Forecasts (ERFs)
• e.g., WGCEP-2002 Forecast as wrapped Fortran
  Code

Makes applications lightweight and puts
maintenance onus on the host.
16
Advanced IT Elements
(made possible by the ITR collaboration)
A) Components can be geographically distributed
(using web-services and distributed object
technologies)
B) GRID computing for full hazard maps
Idle UNIX workstations in USCs Condor pool are
used to get the job done faster (by more than an
order of magnitude).
17
Advanced IT Elements
(made possible by the ITR collaboration)
A) Components can be geographically distributed
(using web-services and distributed object
technologies)
B) GRID computing for full hazard maps
C) Digital libraries used to store large datasets.
18
OpenSHA
Pathway 1
NGA models next
19
OpenSHA
Time Span
Earthquake- Rupture Forecast List of
Adjustable Parameters
Intensity-Measure Relationship List of Supported
Intensity-Measure Types List of
Site-Related Independent Parameters
Site Location List of Site- Related Parameters
Intensity Measure Type Level (IMT IML)
Hazard Calculation
Prob(IMTIML)
20
Inside the black box
Time Span
Rupture n,i Magnitude Probability Ave.
Rake Rup. Surface Hypocenter Param. List
Earthquake- Rupture Forecast Source1 Source2 Sou
rcei SourceI
Site Location List of Site- Related Parameters
Intensity Measure Type Level (IMT IML)


Source i Rupture1,i Rupture2,i Rupturen,i Ruptu
reN,i
Intensity-Measure Relationship List of Supported
Intensity-Measure Types List of Site-Related
Independent Parameters


Rupture probability
Conditional probability of exceedance
21
Various IMR types (subclasses)

Attenuation Relationships
Gaussian dist. is assumed mean and std. from
various parameters
IMT, IML(s)
Multi-Site IMRs compute joint prob. of exceeding
IML(s) at multiple sites (e.g., Wesson
Perkins, 2002)
Site(s)
Rupture
Intensity-Measure Relationship List of Supported
IMTs List of Site-Related Ind. Params
Vector IMRs compute joint prob. of exceeding
multiple IMTs (Bazzurro Cornell, 2002)
Simulation IMRs exceed. prob. computed using a
suite of synthetic seismograms
22
Now implementation details
Time Span
Earthquake- Rupture Forecast List of
Adjustable Parameters
Intensity-Measure Relationship List of Supported
Intensity-Measure Types List of
Site-Related Independent Parameters
Site Location List of Site- Related Parameters
Intensity Measure Type Level (IMT IML)
Hazard Calculation
Prob(IMTIML)
23
Object Orientation
All that exist are different types of objects
All you can do with an object is communicate with
it (via one of its methods of communication)
24
Inside the black box
Time Span
Rupture n,i Magnitude Probability Ave.
Rake Rup. Surface Hypocenter Param. List
Earthquake- Rupture Forecast Source1 Source2 Sou
rcei SourceI
Site Location List of Site- Related Parameters
Intensity Measure Type Level (IMT IML)


Source i Rupture1,i Rupture2,i Rupturen,i Ruptu
reN,i
Intensity-Measure Relationship List of Supported
Intensity-Measure Types List of Site-Related
Independent Parameters


Rupture probability
Conditional probability of exceedance
25
Object Orientation
All that exist are different types of objects
All you can do with an object is communicate with
it (via one of its methods of communication)
ProbEqkRupture
setMag(double) getMag() returns
double setProb(double) getProb() returns
double setAveRake(double) getAveRake() returns
double setRupSurface(GriddedSurface) getRupSurface
() returns GriddedSurface
Rupture Magnitude Probability Ave. Rake Rup.
Surface Hypocenter Param. List
26
Object Orientation
All that exist are different types of objects
All you can do with an object is communicate with
it (via one of its methods of communication)
All objects of the same type have the exact same
set of methods (the same API)
27
Time Span
Earthquake- Rupture Forecast List of
Adjustable Parameters
Intensity-Measure Relationship List of Supported
Intensity-Measure Types List of
Site-Related Independent Parameters
Site Location List of Site- Related Parameters
Intensity Measure Type Level (IMT IML)
Hazard Calculation
Prob(IMTIML)
28
HazardCurveCalculator
getHazardCurve(myFunction, mySite, myIMR, myERF )
This returns the DiscretizedFunction with y
values filled in
29
Time Span
Earthquake- Rupture Forecast List of
Adjustable Parameters
Intensity-Measure Relationship List of Supported
Intensity-Measure Types List of
Site-Related Independent Parameters
Site Location List of Site- Related Parameters
Intensity Measure Type Level (IMT IML)
Hazard Calculation
Prob(IMTIML)
30
Earthquake-Rupture Forecast API(methods of
interacting with an ERF)
getName() returns String getAdjustableParamete
rs() returns ParameterList getApplicableRegion(
) returns GeographicRegion getTimeSpan(timeSpan
) returns TimeSpan setTimeSpan(timeSpan) setPa
rameter(name, value) updateForecast() getNumSour
ces() returns int getNumRuptures(int
ithSource) returns int getRupture(int
ithSource, int nthRupture) returns ProbEqkRupture
31
Web-Based Tools for SHA
Time Span
Earthquake- Rupture Forecast List of
Adjustable Parameters
Intensity-Measure Relationship List of Supported
Intensity-Measure Types List of
Site-Related Independent Parameters
Site Location List of Site- Related Parameters
Intensity Measure Type Level (IMT IML)
Hazard Calculation
Prob(IMTIML)
32
Intensity-Measure Relationship API(methods of
interacting with an IMR)
getName() returns String getSupportedIntensit
yMeasures() returns ParameterList
getSiteParameters() returns ParameterList
getOtherAdjustableParameters() returns
ParameterList
setIntensityMeasure(desired_IMT) setSite(mySite) s
etProbEqkRupture(myEqkRup) setIntensityMeasureLeve
l(iml)
getExceedProbability() returns double
33
HazardCurveCalculatoragain
34
More on Objects
Inheritance
35
More on Objects
Inheritance
ProbEqkRupture
ObsEqkRupture
setProb(double) getProb() setMag(double) getMag(
) setAveRake(double) getAveRake() setRupSurface
(Surface) getRupSurface() setHypocenter getHypoc
enter
setOriginTime(Time) getOriginTime
() setMag(double) getMag() setAveRake(double)
getAveRake() setRupSurface(Surface) getRupSurface
() setHypocenter getHypocenter
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More on Objects
Inheritance
ProbEqkRupture extends EqkRupture, plus
EqkRupture
setProb(double) getProb()
subclasses
setMag(double) getMag() setAveRake(double) getAv
eRake() setRupSurface(Surface) getRupSurface() se
tHypocenter getHypocenter
ObsEqkRupture extends EqkRupture, plus
setOriginTime(Time) getOriginTime()
Code more efficient
More flexibility e.g., getShakeMapData(region,I
MR,EqkRupture)
37
Various IMR types (subclasses)

Attenuation Relationships
Gaussian dist. is assumed mean and std. from
various parameters
IMT, IML(s)
Multi-Site IMRs compute joint prob. of exceeding
IML(s) at multiple sites (e.g., Wesson
Perkins, 2002)
Site(s)
Rupture
Intensity-Measure Relationship List of Supported
IMTs List of Site-Related Ind. Params
Vector IMRs compute joint prob. of exceeding
multiple IMTs (Bazzurro Cornell, 2002)
Simulation IMRs exceed. prob. computed using a
suite of synthetic seismograms
38
Intensity-Measure Relationship
getName() getSupportedIntensityMeasures() getSiteP
arameters() getOtherAdjustableParameters() setInt
ensityMeasure( imt ) setParameter(name,
value) setSite( Site mySite ) setProbEqkRupture(my
EqkRup ) setIntensityMeasureLevel(iml
) getExceedProbability()
subclass
Attenuation Relationship
Extends IMR, plus
getMean() getStdDev() getIML_AtExceedProb(double)
getEqkRuptureParams() getPropEffectParams() getM
eanIndependentParams() getStdDevIndependentParams(
) getExceedProbIndependentParams() getIML_AtExceed
ProbIndParams()
39
Attenuation Relationship Application
40
Topics

• Brief Introduction (motivation)
• Overview of framework
• How to add new site-effect modules
• Adding vector-valued analysis
• and/or waveform modeling?
• (5) Interface to loss codes