Climate Change in Rocky Mountain National Park

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Climate Change in Rocky Mountain National Park
including some interactions with nitrogen
deposition
Jill Baron US Geological Survey Natural Resource
Ecology Lab Colorado State University Fort
Collins CO 22 March 2007
Pushing the envelope. How about you?
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Western Climate is Warming
Temperatures warm more rapidly after 1950
Precipitation? Variable
Mote et al. 2003 (taken from Udall, WWA)
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Hoerling, 2006
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Daily Temperatures Are Increasing
For Tmin Tmax, difference in monthly means from
1996 to 2005, versus historical averages
(Yellowstone area)
Clow et al. 2003
Saunders et al. 2006
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Local temperature trends
Elevations Niwot D1 3743 m Grand 2274
m Boulder 1672 m Larimer 1525 m
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We are seeing record-breaking extremes
Record-breaking high March temps, lack of
precipitation in 100 yr record
Record-setting peak snowmelt
Pagano et al. 2004, EOS
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Under various greenhouse forcings Climate models
yield 1. fairly narrow range of warming
scenarios and (amidst a broad overall range) 2.
tendency for little precipitation change in
California and most of the West.
20 of 23 in this range
19 of 23 in this range
cm/month
cm/month
Dettinger, 2005
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Observed Changes in Climate

• Warming
• Erratic precipitation
• Extreme drought
• Extreme storms (Mount Rainier)
• More warming projected

So what??!!
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Earlier onset of spring snowmelt less snowpack
Snow season 16 days shorter in CA NV (1951-1996)
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Warming ? significant hydroclimatic changes
Less snow/more rain
Earlier greenup
TRENDS (1954-94) in Lilac first-bloom dates
Cayan et al., 2001
Knowles et al., 2006
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The Glacier Next Door
Boulder Daily Camera
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Where will the largest (snowmelt) temperature
effects occur?
How many days/year historically were just below
freezing?
Computed from UWs VIC model daily INPUTS (Bales
et al, in press)
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Expected changes in FROZEN-SEASON LENGTH 30-60
days/year less in 2050 for ROMO
2025
Derived from monthly IPCC GCM-grid pdfs, and UWs
VIC model daily inputs, 1950-1999
2050
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Large wildfires increased suddenly and
dramatically in mid-1980s in West

• More large wildfires
• Longer wildfire durations
• Longer wildfire seasons
• Strongly associated with increased spring and
  summer temperatures and earlier spring snowmelt

Westerling et al. 2006
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Larger fires with drier, warmer
climates Climate is trending warmer
COLORADO
Precip
0
0
Temp C
McKenzie et al. 2004
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McKenzie et al. 2004
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Climate Change, Wildfire, and Conservation

• If longer, more severe fire seasons are indeed
  an outcome of climate warming, the probability of
  losing local populations of species that depend
  on late seral habitat will increase.
  contemporary landscapes have been altered by
  timber extraction, agriculture, and human
  settlements. Options for suitable postfire
  habitat have been reduced, creating the potential
  for severe bottlenecks in space and time,
  particularly for species that have narrow habitat
  requirements, restricted distributions, or low
  mobility.

McKenzie et al. 2004, Cons Biol.
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Observed Changes in Wildlife at Gothic, CO
Marmots emerging 38 days earlier than in 1977
Robins arriving 14 days earlier
Inouye et al. PNAS 2000
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Some flowering plants strongly linked to snowpack
Dwarf Larkspur
PhotoDaniel Mosquin
Saavedra et al. GCB, 2003
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Grinnell Resurvey, YOSE

• Trapping 1914, 2002-2005
• Four new species moved into YOSE
• Four species have contracted their ranges
• Several species have shifted ranges up to 2000 m
  higher
• One species extirpated

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Ptarmigan model results under climate scenarios
Ptarmigan on Thatchtop August 2005
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Some Species Like it Warmer!

• Elk (Wang et al. 2002)
• Pine Bark Beetle (Hicke et al. 2006)
• Cutthroat trout (Cooney 2003)
• Whirling Disease (Covich and Cooney 2003)
• West Nile Virus (CDC)

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Greenback Cutthroat Trout
The endangered Greenback Cutthroat Trout require
water temperatures above 5 C to successfully
spawn
and 472 growing degree days for young trout to be
able to overwinter
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Other changes that could occur (besides earlier
snowmelt, more wildfire) 1. Increased insects
and disease 2. Narrowing of tundra regions,
reduction of obligate tundra spp. habitat 3.
Synergies with air pollution 4. More visitors 5.
More elk 6. More cutthroat trout habitat, but
also more potential for whirling disease
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Climate Change and Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition

• Synergies and Antagonisms

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NO3 NH4 NOx NO NO2 NH3
NOx
NH3
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NO3 NH4 NOx NO NO2 NH3
NOx
NH3
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Pathways and Effects of Excess Nitrogen Deposition
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Assessing ecological and biogeochemical
responses to changing atmospheric nitrogen and
sulfur depositionand climate for diverse
ecosystems

• Melannie Hartman1, Jill Baron1,2, Dennis Ojima 1

1 Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado
State University, Fort Collins, CO 2 USGS
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2 National Parks, 4 LTER sites
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Great Smoky NP (GRSM) Noland Divide
Mount Rainier NP (MORA) Lake Louise
Niwot Ridge (NWT) Green Lakes Valley
Coweeta (CWT) WS 2
HJ Andrews (HJA) WS 10 (clear cut 1975)
Hubbard Brook (HBR) WS 6
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Methods

• Calibrated DayCent-Chem on a subset of years with
  measurements (Q, stream soil chemistry, NPP,
  mineralization, SOM)
• Pre-scenario 1980-2000
• drivers measured meteorology, NADP, CASTNet
• Scenario 2001-2050 with future climate and N,S
  deposition

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Deposition Scenarios

• CMAQ modeling system (U.S. EPA COMMUNITY
  MULTISCALE AIR QUALITY).
• wet and dry amounts N and S species
• 2001 Base case
• 2010, 2015, 2020 CAIR (Clean Air Interstate Rule)
• Linearly interpolate for years in between
• Each day annual deposition / 365

Climate Scenarios

• MM5 (Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model)
• 1976-2075 daily climate (lat, lon).
• no trend in precipitation for most sites
• 0.02-0.03 C/year

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The deposition scenarios for all sites
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The climate scenarios for Niwot Ridge
Change from 85 to 60 snow
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Ecosystem responses to N, climate change
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Stream chemistry responses to N, climate change
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Interactions of climate change and nitrogen
deposition

• Higher elevations likely to see longer, warmer,
  growing seasons more N uptake, greater plant
  productivity
• Shifts in communities (Walker et al. 2006)
• Less N leaching to aquatic systems (Baron and
  Hartman 2002, Hartman et al. in prep)
• More productivity, more fuel (Fenn et al. 2003)
• More N content in leaves, more palatable to
  insects (Fenn et al 2003
• N promotes carbon (and N2O?) loss in peat bogs
  (Bragazza et al. 2006)

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Interactions of climate change and nitrogen
deposition

• Lower elevations likely to see effective drought
• Lakes and streams receive less N (Schindler et
  al. 1996)
• Warming, drought, and acid change food web
  structure (algae, zooplankton switched to
  stress-tolerant species Christensen et al. 2006)
• Storms can cause high N pulses into waters (Fenn
  et al. 1996)

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Summary

• Climate change trends already apparent
• Ecological responses range from simple
• Phenology, migration, extirpation
• to complex
• Interactions of climate, fire, snowmelt, snowpack
  with habitat, species, diseases, pests
• Interactions with nitrogen appear subtle

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Barriers to Adapting to Climate Change
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What to do?
Time to make a plan