AMPS Moving into the Next Phase

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AMPS Moving into the Next Phase
Jordan G. PowersMesoscale and Microscale
Meteorology Division, NCAR

• ? Background
• ? AMPSs Next Phase Plans
• ? Future Possibilities

www.mmm.ucar/rt/mm5/amps AMPS Users Workshop
2004 10 June 2004
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I. Background

• Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)
  At-a-glance
• NCAR Polar Met. Group, BPRC, The Ohio State
  Univ.
• Plus SPAWAR contributions
• ? Real-time, high-resolution mesoscale model
  over Antarctica (since 2000) Polar MM5
• ? Support of Antarctic forecasting and
  science operations
• ? Tailored to needs of
• (1) SPAWAR forecasters and the USAP
• (2) international community

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• Phase 2 Goals
• October 2002September 2004 (current phase)
• New Data Assimilation Capability 3DVAR
• 3-Dimensional Variational data assimilation
• Polar Physics Development
• Ex Upper boundary condition
• Verification
• Seasonal forecast verification

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• Phase 2 Additional Gains
• ? 10-km Antarctic Peninsula grid
• ? Expansion in international support
• ? Scientific field activity support
• ? GLOBEC (Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics)
• ? NASA P3 Pine Island Bay operations
• (flights investigating calving glaciers)
• Archive-derived climatologies for Raytheon
  support
• ? Rescues Flight Assistance
• ? September 2003 (South Pole medevac)
• ? April 2004 (McMurdo medevac)

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II. AMPSs Next Phase Plans
Next Phase October 2004September 2006 ?
Implementation of the Weather Research and
Forecasting Model (WRF) ? Enhanced
Grids Ex 30 km Antarctica grid ? ? 20 km
grid NB Dependent on
computing hardware ? Data assimilation
Explore new approaches Ensemble Kalman
Filter New data sources E.g COSMIC
GPS radio occultations (2006)
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? New Physics Blowing snow
parameterization Cloud-radiation interaction
representation of downwelling longwave
radiation Treatment of horizontal
pressure-gradient force ? Verification
Evaluation of new physics Analysis of event
performance ? Climatological Database
Web-based tool to allow compilation of
climatology of locations, using archive
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• ? Assistance to International Antarctic
  Activities
• Italy (PRNA) Terra
  Nova Bay
• British Antarctic Survey Rothera
• Germany Neumayer
• Australia . Casey, Davis, Mawson
  (Bureau of Met.)
• South African (S.A. Weather
  Service)
• Russia Novolazarevskaya
• Japan Syowa
• Chile Eduardo Frei
• Norway Troll

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The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model
36h WRF Precip Forecast

• Designed for both research and operational
  applications
• Extensive use for real-time forecasting
• Registered users as of June 1, 2004 845
• WRF Partner/Collaborators
• NCAR
• NOAA National Centers for Environmental
  Prediction
• NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory
• Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)
• Federal Aviation Administration
• Naval Research Laboratory

10 km WRF
Analyzed Precip
27 Sept. 2002 Hurricane Isidore
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WRF Frontal Forecast 24-hr WRF fcst Valid 00
UTC 25 October 2001 (12-km grid)
WRF vertically-integrated cloud water
IR imagery
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WRF AMPS Test Forecast 72-hr WRF fcst Valid 12
UTC 17 Nov 2003 (30-km grid)
WRF
MM5
SLP interval 4 mb
SLP interval 4 mb
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III. Future Possibilities

• ? Application of New Verification/Analysis
  Techniques
• ? Field Campaign Support
• ? Enhanced International Collaborations and
  SPAWAR Involvement

Eduardo Frei Stn.
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? Applications of Kinetic Energy Spectra from
AMPS Real-Time Verification System
Power spectra of wind and ? computed from
aircraft data (Nastrom and Gage 1985) k-3 and
k-5/3 power curves shown GASP data (Global
Atmospheric Sampling Program)
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• AMPS Kinetic Energy Spectra
• Spectra computed from u, v, w through 525237 mb
  layer
• Hr. 24 Fcst init 1200 UTC 3 Sept 2003
• Grid ?x indicated

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Spectra for 10-km and 3.3-km AMPS grids Hr. 24
Fcst init00 UTC 03 Sept 2003
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Height (m) Interval10 m
Wind speed (m/s) Interval 2.5 m/s
400 hPa height and wind speed on 10-km AMPS
grid Hr. 24 Fcst init00 UTC 03 Sept 2003
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10-km AMPS Spectra (Hr 24) Area / subarea of
domain indicated
Spectral analysis may illuminate effects of
high-resolution grids traditional error
statistics might not reveal Application of
high-res grids over Antarctica may improve
representation of the variance of tropospheric
flows (i) Better reproduction of observed power
laws on the mesoscale (ii) Greater power
variance on the mesoscale
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• Field Campaign Support
• 1) Antarctic RIME Antarctic Regional
  Interactions Meteorology Experiment (A-RIME)

Field phases Dec. 06 Jan. 07 Dec. 07 Feb.
08 Sept. 08Feb. 09
Planned measurement sites for RIME
instrumentation deployments. A few existing
AWSs shown as small green circles. (Many AWSs
not shown.)
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Pre- A-RIME Studies ? Analysis of AMPS
archive for instrument siting and
information for logistical issues ? Case
studies to identify meteorology issues for
exploration in A-RIME A-RIME
Logistics ?Special AMPS products and
windows Ex Ferrell close-up
coverage, time series soundings for
A-RIME points ? Higher-resolution experimental
grid(s) Ex 1-km one-way nests (e.g., Ross
Air Stream)
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Field Campaign Support (contd) 2) ANTCI
Antarctic Tropospheric Chemistry
Experiment First field phase Nov.Dec.
2005 Twin Otter flights to sample PBL
AMPS Support ? Flight forecasting and
specialized products ? Model datasets for
event analysis
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ANTCI Flights Yellow areas focused on sulfur
species Green areas focused on reactive
nitrogen compounds Blue areas focused on both.
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• Future Possibilities (contd)
• Enhanced International Cooperation and Support
• Contributions to/collaborations in AMPS
  operations
• Involvement of COMNAP in support of AMPS (?)
• (Council of Managers of National Antarctic
  Programs)
• SPAWAR Involvement
• Participation in AMPS operations during field
  seasons
• Establishment of AMPS liaison
• Ex Product coordinator

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• Summary
• AMPS next phase (20042006) planning in progress
• Implementation of new model for AMPS WRF
• Improved system capabilities
• Polar physics development
• Data assimilation improvement
• Strengthen Antarctic observationalforecastingmo
  deling operational research collaborations,
  including international efforts