Perspectives on Vulnerability

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Perspectives on Vulnerability

• Oran R. Young
• GCP SSC 4
• Paris, 15 June 2005

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Vulnerability

• Definition (Turner et al 2003)
• Vulnerability is the degree to which a system,
  subsystem, or system component is likely to
  experience harm due to exposure to a hazard,
  either a perturbation or stress/stresssor.

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Vulnerability

• Systems vulnerability of what to what?
• Communities to natural hazards (draughts, floods,
  storms, famines)
• Special case of individuals/families/neighborhoods
  
• Institutions (e.g. resource regimes) to
  environmental change/anthropogenic change
• Ecosystems/biophysical systems (e.g. carbon
  pools) to anthropogenic change
• SESs to environmental change (e.g. climate
  change)
• Human-environment interactions

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Vulnerability

• Elements of vulnerability analysis
• Exposure/sensitivity/coping capacity or
  adaptability
• Scale and scalar effects
• Differences across spatial/temporal scales
• Interactions across scales can increase/decrease
  vulnerability

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Vulnerability

• Focus on exposure
• stresses/threats/ hazards/ perturbations/risks
• Types/characteristics of stress
• Individual
• Multiple
• Interactive
• Cumulative
• Narrow/broad
• Gradual/sudden/abrupt

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Vulnerability

• Focus on sensitivity
• Resistance to external pressure/disturbance
• Some factors leading to variations in degrees of
  sensitivity
• General health/robustness
• Knowledge/skills
• Reserves (e.g. wealth)
• Entitlements (e.g. rights to food, water)
• Availability of help from other systems

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Vulnerability

• Focus on response/coping capacity
• Role of resilience in this framework
• Resilience resistance adaptability
• Forms of response
• Anticipatory/reactive
• Mitigation/adaptation
• Defensive/collaborative
• Adaptation/learning/intentional change
• Stress management strategies
• Prevention, preparedness, response
• Trial runs

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Vulnerability

• Vulnerability as the DV
• Measurement issues
• Can we devise a general/generic measure of
  vulnerability or is vulnerability issue or case
  specific?
• Does it matter?
• Can we make progress without such a measure
• Possible indicators of vulnerability
• Compare other indicator efforts e.g. DJIA for
  health of the economy HDI for state of human
  welfare, numerous efforts to measure SD

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Vulnerability

• IVs explaining/predicting variations in
  vulnerability
• Some relevant factors
• Diversification
• Substitutability
• Natural and social capital
• Reserves/stored resurces
• Aptitude for learning
• External support/subsidies
• Idea of syndromes
• Recurrent combinations (e.g. Sahel Syndrome)

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Vulnerability

• Consequences of vulnerability
• What happens when stresses mount?
• Maintenance with little change
• Adaptive management
• State changes
• Multiple equilibria
• Thresholds, triggers, flips, domains of
  attraction
• System change/transformation
• Transitions vs. state changes

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Vulnerability

• Applications to our case
• The importance of focusing on coupled or
  social-ecological systems
• Scientific importance
• Mandate of GCP as an ESSP project
• Policy relevance

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Vulnerability

• Application to our case (contd)
• The value of focusing on one or two cases
• And bearing down on the SES issues
• Selection criteria
• Probability of occurrence
• Consequences for society
• Scientific tractability
• Opportunity to improve understanding of
  social-ecological systems

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Vulnerability

• Application to our case (contd)
• Proposal boreal and tropical forests
• Biophysical processes
• Anthropogenic drivers
• Human responses

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ORAN R. YOUNG Director Young_at_Bren.ucsb.edu
Phone [phone] Fax [phone]