Workpackage 3 Definition of 3 scenarios

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Workpackage 3 Definition of 3 scenarios

• STEPS final meeting
• Gé Huismans, Albert Jansen, SenterNovem
• June, 15th 2005, Gothenborg

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Aim and tasks

• Aim develop scenarios to be modelled and
  calculated in Workpackage 4 and assessed in
  Workpackage 5.
• Tasks
• 1 Synthesis of trends into dimensions
• 2 Definition of the scenarios
• 3 Definition of regional impact
• 4 Building and formulating the scenarios
• 5 Essay form

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Task 1

• Synthesis of trends into dimensions
• Trends to variables
• From variables to dimensions
• Clustering in a matrix
• Definition of the scenarios

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Task 1.1 gt trends to variables

• Subsystems
• Social-economic and cultural system
• Spatial System
• Private transport system
• Freight transport system
• Transport Energy System
• Energy supply and demand

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(No Transcript)
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Task 1.2 gt variables to dimensions
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Task 1.2 gt variables to dimensions
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Task 1.3 gt clustering into a matrix

• Systemvariables (indicators) WP2 Long list
• Clustering into two groups
• (availability) (regulation of demand)

• Exogenous variables
• Globalisation
• European integration
• Economic growth, (GDP)
• Demographics,
• Technological progress
• Availabilty of Energy Resources
• Spatial development
• Transport costs

• Policies
• Liberation of the energy market
• Environmental policy
• Spatial planning
• Technological Innovation policy
• Transport policy
• Fiscal Policy
• Energy Policy

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Task 1.4 gt definition of the scenarios

• Clustering into two groups
• Exogeneous (availability)
• Policies (regulation of demand)
• Energy Demand Regulation
• BAU
• Technological/ investment
• Regulation/taxation
• Energy supply
• Trend forecast (IEA EU) 2/a
• Worst Case 7/a

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Task 1.4 gt definition of the scenarios
Policies (energy demand) Policies (energy demand) Policies (energy demand)
BAU reference policies 2005 Investments Technology Infrastructure Demand Control Taxation Regulations
Energy supply Generally accepted energy supply forecast A0 A1 A2
Energy supply Worst case energy supply forecasts Scarcity B0 B1 B2
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WP4 15 scenarios/ WP3 6 scenarios

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Task 2 gt definition of the scenarios

• BAU actual practiced policies, including expert
  guesses on feasable policy development towards
  2030
• BAUINVEST direct investments in infrastructure,
  technology and innovation systems (energy
  efficiency, skills/knowledge, production capacity
  alternative fuels and rolling stock)
• BAUDEMAND REGULATION taxation of car use,
  taxation of fuel, regulation of urban development
  towards transit orientation and node development

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Task 2 gt definition of the scenarios E-supply

• Trend consumption 60 in volume (A)
• Worst case 7 /a rise in end-user price (B)

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Task 3 gt definition of regional impact

• Two ways
• Planning families
• Density and networks

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planning families

• Germanic
• Napoleonic
• Scandinavian
• East European
• British

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Urban density
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networksroad
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Networksrail
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proximity
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Task 3 gt definition of regional impact

• Four European Regions
• 1. Northern Denmark, Finland, Sweden, (Norway)
• 2. Eastern Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland,
  Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Czech Republic,
  Hungary
• 3. Southern Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal,
  Malta, Cyprus
• 4. Western Germany, Austria, United Kingdom,
  Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium, France,
  Luxembourg

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Task 4 gt building and formulation the scenarios

• Desciption of each scenario
• General introduction the basics of that specific
  scenario
• A more detailed qualitative description of the
  scenario, on variable level (based on the 21
  variables selected)
• On a EU-level impact on the transport and energy
  system. This qualitative description is the basis
  for the quantification of the variable
• On a regional scale
• Scenario is finalised by summarising the scores
  of all relevant variables within the scenario
  this quanitified description is the basis for WP4

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Task 4 gt building and formulation the
scenarios measures and indicators used
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Task 4 gt building and formulation the
scenarios measures and indicators used
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Task 4 gt building and formulation the
scenarios measures and indicators used
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Task 4 gt building and formulation the
scenarios measures and indicators used
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Task 4 gt building and formulation the
scenarios measures and indicators used
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Task 1.4 gt definition of the scenarios
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Social-economic system gt BAU

• BAU
• General
• GDP, average incomes and demographics (1-P hh)
  drivers transport demand
• Car-use culturally and socially dependent
  national, regional, local differences
• Car-sharing
• No special actions for car-sharing car ownership
  increases (new EU Member States and rural
  regions)
• Taxation on fuels
• Excise rates grow, affecting New Member States.
• Change in taxation from purchase to use in
  general tax burden more or less the same, softens
  the higher fuel prices
• Kerosine will be taxed

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Social-economic system gt BAU DR

• Demand Regulation
• Car-sharing
• Legislative profits when car-sharing
  Europe-wide, upto local levels
• Higher taxes when purchasing and using the car
  restricted entrance for non-sharing cars
• Regional differences ...
• Taxation on fuels
• Excise rates grow rapidly and heavily, especially
  for the more pollutionate fuels
• Increased fuel prices are not compensated
• Kerosine will be heavily taxed to create a
  level-playing-field between modes
• Regional differences

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Social-economic System
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Spatial System gt BAU

• BAU
• General
• Urban sprawl continued (residential, office,
  retail)
• No Daily Urban System Minimum mixed-use
• Some central and nodal developments and
  browfield rest greenfield
• Regional differences ...
• Floor Space Destination incr/decr (fsi/ zone/land
  use)
• small/ no increment in central urban area
  res/office/retail
• moderate increment inner urban res/office/retail
• huge increment outer urban res/office/retail
• biggest effects in new member states
• Regional differences ...

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Spatial System gt BAU DR

• Demand Regulation
• Floor Space Destination incr/decr (fsi/ zone/land
  use)
• Legislation to mix activities (all spatial
  levels), disables greenfield/hypermarket
  developments tax on land take, land banks,
• End to domination of urban sprawl (2015 onwards)
• Daily Urban System more close, more dense, more
  local, more regional, more mixed, more slow modes
  based
• Inner cities and (inner urban) nodal developments
  extremely popular, just as new cities around rail
  near existing cities
• Brownfields (incl. former office locations)
  highly mixed, medium/high density
• Regional differences ...

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Spatial System
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Passenger Transport System gt BAU

• BAU
• General
• no decoupling GDP / pass. Kms
• Growing incomes spent on transport
• Car major role in local and regional transport
• Aviation dominates intra-European travel
• Regional differences
• Investment in local public transport
  infrastructure
• Decrease (national, regional, local)
• End-user cost increase
• Regional differences ...

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Passenger Transport System gt BAU (2)

• BAU
• Investment in European Rail Networks
• Slight increase Ten-T and TINA networks planned
  construction unclear and dependent on extra
  investments
• Regional differences ...
• Investment in regional rail
• Decrease (national, regional, local)
• End-user cost increase
• Slight shift towards rail due to congestion
• Private companies entering the PT-business
• Regional differences ...

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Passenger Transport System gt BAU (3)

• BAU
• Speed reduction
• Some cities and regions introduced speed
  reduction measures
• 10 of the EU-network speed reduction
  measurements Regional differences ...
• Road Pricing
• Some cities and regions introduced road pricing
• Regional differences ...

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Passenger Transport System gt BAU (4)

• BAU
• Lower transport for PT users
• Some measures for lower cost free fares in
  parts of the urban area
• Increase of transport cost
• Regional differences ...
• Extending telework
• Few initiatives taken EU-wide
• No significant change in commuting trips
• Regional differences ...

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Passenger Transport System gt BAU T

• Investment in local public transport investment
• increase investment 100 free lanes, extended
  lines, new (light weight material), ICT, service
  providers
• Investment in European Rail Networks
• Most of the planned lines built bottlenecks
  eliminated, new lines built or extended
• Investment in regional rail
• increase investment 100 free lanes, extended
  lines, new (light weight material), ICT, service
  providers

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Passenger Transport System gt BAU DR (1)

• Speed reduction
• Legislation 40 of the network speed reduction,
  especially urban areas
• Road Pricing
• legislation from 2009 on all cities gt 80.000
  inhabitants introduced road pricing
• entrance permissions for specific cars only

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Passenger Transport System gt BAU DR (2)

• Lower transport cost for PT users
• Legislative measures exclusive (free) PR
  facilities and the use of certain streets in
  urban areas exclusively for PT
• Subsidies re-introduced (paid by congestion
  charging), e.g lower VAT when buying tickets
• Extending telework
• Half of EU-Member States started promoting
  telework from 2009 onwards
• ALL Regional differences ...

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Passenger Transport System
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Passenger Transport System (2)
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Freight Transport System gt BAU (1)

• BAU
• General
• Increased GDP gt More freight no decoupling
• More trucking (100)
• Better logistics higher load factor
• Speed reduction
• Some cities and regions speed reduction measures
• On 10 of the EU-network speed reduction
  measurements, especially for freight
• Regional differences ...
• Road Pricing
• Some cities and regions introduced road pricing
• Regional differences ...

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Freight Transport System gt BAU (2)

• City Logistics to improve efficiency of urban
  freight distribution
• Few cities and regions introduced freight
  distribution policies, e.g restricted delivery
  times, weight etc
• Improving freight rail infra and services
• Few investments
• Increased road tax more demand rail, not met by
  extra investmentsgt higher prices
• Speed slightly higher
• Improving freight ship infra and services
• Few investments in inland waterways (small share)
  and short sea shipping (great share)
• Speed slightly higher

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Freight Transport System gt BAU T (1)

• City Logistics to improve efficiency of urban
  freight distribution
• huge investments in e.g. trackingtracing, city
  logistics centres, delivery/city boxes, other
  modes (bikes, small electric cars) for the last
  mile, coöperation between different logistic
  firms, budgets for marketing and implementation
  of these concepts to overcome market barriers
• Improving freight rail infra and services
• 100 extra investments new and extra rail,
  electrification of networks, new rolling stock
  (lightweight, aerodynamic)
• higher demand met with extra slots
• higher speed

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Freight Transport System gt BAU T (2)

• Improving freight ship infra and services
• 100 extra investment extra short sea and
  inland
• improved ships
• More and improved infrastructure related to
  (inland) harbours, waterways new and longer
  docks, deeper harbours, cranes, container
  facilities, techniques and infrastructure for
  easier passing locks, improved possibilities for
  intermodal freight
• Faster shipment

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Freight Transport System gt BAU DR (1)

• Speed reduction
• Legislation 40 of the network speed reduction,
  especially in urban areas, supported by infra
  measures (drive slow go fast)
• Road Pricing
• Legislation from 2009 on all cities over 80.000
  inhabitants have introduced road pricing
• 3/4 of the EU-Member States charges toll for
  freight
• Entrance permissions for specific cars only,
  related to weight, emission factors, etc

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Freight Transport System
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Freight Transport System (2)
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Transport Energy System gt BAU (1)

• BAU
• Improving energy efficiency for car
• Investments decrease
• Ongoing improvements in energy efficiency, e.g.
  direct injection, lightweight materials, and
  better aerodynamics - legislation on emissions
  (air quality) gt slight annual decrease fuel
  consumption
• Investments in alternative vehicle technologies
• Investments decrease
• Decreased emissions (Euro every 9 years 50
  reduction)
• Slow decrease conventionals (75), slightly
  growing share for alternatives

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Transport Energy System gt BAU (2)

• BAU
• Investments in alternative vehicle technologies
• Hybrids 15 share (2004 already small share,
  growing share due to marketing and lower prices)
• CNG 10 share, implementation quite easy
  already infra for gas distribution. Beneficial
  air quality legislation
• Electric max. 1 share niche market (fleets
  local authorities, etc)
• Hydrogen some 2 share, grow after 2020

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Transport Energy System gt BAU (3)

• BAU
• Improving energy efficiency for train
• no mayor investments, only fleet renewal
• Improving energy efficiency for ship
• no mayor investments, only fleet renewal

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Transport Energy System gt BAU T (1)

• BAU
• Improving energy efficiency for car
• Investments increased government and (due to
  that) private companies gt share 15 of sales
• Sped up improvements gt direct injection,
  lightweight materials, modestly powered cars,
  better aerodynamics legislation on emissions
  (air quality) gt moderate annual decrease fuel
  consumption
• Investments in alternative vehicle technologies
• Investments 100 (also private companies)
  lightweight, low noise, energy efficient cars,
  engines on biofuels, batteries fit for electric
  cars, fuel cell technology etc, ready to fit in
  modern logistic concepts.

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Transport Energy System gt BAU T (2)

• BAU
• Investments in alternative vehicle technologies
• Sped up decrease of emissions (Euro every 5yrs
  -50)
• Faster decrease conventionals (55 share)
• Faster growing share for alternatives
• hybrids 20 share gt 2005 small share growing
  share due to marketing, lower prices, lightweight
  batteries, improved traction, improving
  recharging, accompanying legislations on
  emissions
• CNG 15 share gt implementation quite easy and
  sped up already infra for gas distribution.
  Beneficial air quality legislation

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Transport Energy System gt BAU T (3)

• BAU
• Investments in alternative vehicle technologies
• Electric 5 share gt improved batteries, expanded
  niche market towards mainstream (fleets local
  authorities, cars for local and regional use)
• Hydrogen 5 share, faster growth after 2020

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Transport Energy System gt BAU T (4)

• BAU
• Improving energy efficiency for train
• 100 extra investments, (lighter) materials for
  trains, engines, traction, use of low-energy
  consuming devices for passengers (light,
  heating), etc. Research on even better
  streamline, lay-out etc of the trains itself and
  on the most energy efficient mode (diesel vs
  electricity) and re-use of the braking energy gt
  faster
• Improving energy efficiency for ship
• 100 extra investments, research on other
  (lighter) materials for ships, motors, traction,
  etc. Research on even better streamline, lay-out
  etc of the ship itself, ...

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Transport Energy System (1)
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Transport Energy System (2)
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WP3 Scenarios

• Thank you for the attention and discussion