Kein Folientitel

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ESPON 2.1.1 Territorial Impact of EU Transport
and TEN Policies Nils Schneekloth / Roberta
Capello
ESPON Seminar October 6 Matera,Italy
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Spatial impact of transport and ICT policies

• Transport policies have an impact on the spatial
  structure of the economy through
• affecting costs and times for freight
• affecting costs and times for passenger travel
• Relevant policies are
• infrastructure investments
• pricing policies (charging of infrastructure,
  fuel taxation, taxation of car and truck
  operation) 
• regulation/deregulation

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Spatial impact of transport and ICT policies

• ICT policies have an impact on the spatial
  structure of the economy through
• affecting the ICT infrastructure and, hence, ICT
  supply
• affecting adoption capabilities and, hence, ICT
  demand and the actual use of knowledge and
  information
• affecting locations of the ICT service industry
• Relevant policies are
• ICT infrastructure policies
• education, training and ICT adoption support
  policies
• ICT's service promotion policies

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CGEurope model structure

• Main features
• Spatial price equilibrium
• Final demand represented by utility maximizing
  household
• Production presented by profit maximizing firms
• Income-expenditure loop is closed
• Production is diversified, with different
  varieties produced at different locations
• Firms and households choose supply sources
  according to relative prices, which include
  interregional transfer costs
• International trade imposes extra costs on trade
  due to international and cultural impediments

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CGEurope model structure

• How do policies enter ?
• Freight cost changes affect prices in respective
  origins and destinations directly and prices in
  other locations indirectly
• Generalised travel cost changes affect costs of
  communication between suppliers and customers,
  which in turn affect returns in the origin and
  costs in the destination directly and prices in
  other locations indirectly
• Higher output prices, lower input prices or lower
  costs of business travel of firms translate into
  higher factor incomes and, hence, higher
  households utility
• Lower consumer goods prices reduce the price
  index and, hence, increase households utility

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SASI model structure
Change of travel time, change of travel costs
Change of Accessibility
Quasiproduction function
Change of GDP per capita
Change of employment
Change of unemployment
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Summary of transport policy scenarios
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Outcomes of the TIA

• Results by NUTS-3 region
• Comparison of with and without for 10
  scenarios
• Change of regional welfare, equivalent income
  measure
• Change of GDP per capita
• Change of accessibility
• Change of employment

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CGEurope Aggregated Effects by Policy Scenario,
Percent of 1997 GDP
CGEurope Correlation of GDP per Capita and
Relative Welfare Impact
 
/ Weak/strong cohesion effect disparities
are reduced / Weak/strong anti-cohesion
effect disparities are increased / Short term
anti-cohesion and long-term cohesion effect
0 Little or no effect  
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SASI model GDP/capita cohesion effects
/ Weak/strong cohesion effect disparities
are reduced / Weak/strong anti-cohesion
effect disparities are increased / Short term
anti-cohesion and long-term cohesion effect
0 Little or no effect  
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Territorial impact of EU ICTs policies

• Available results
• maps on
• accessibility absolute growth rate
• Internet absolute growth rate
• pc GDP average annual growth rate
• (at 2020 in the three scenarios)
• cohesion indicators
• Lorenz curves
• Gini coefficients
• maps on differences in pc GDP average annual
  growth
• typologies of regions by ICTs policies impact

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STIMA model structure
Change of ICTs investments
Change of ICTs endowment
Quasiproduction function
Change of GDP per capita
Change of absolute GDP
Change of virtual accessibility
Change in regional disparities
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Data

• Scarce availability of disaggregated territorial
  data on ICTs
• at Nuts 3 no availability
• at Nuts 2 EOS Gallup Survey 1999
• survey conducted in households in the 15
  Countries of the European Union
• data collected through face-to-face interviews
• by means of a quantitative questionnaire
• on a representative sample in each Member State

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EOS Gallup sample

• Country Sampling Plan Real Sample
  Nuts level used for sampling
• Belgique 2000 1961 NUTS 1
• Danmark 2000 2060 NUTS 3
• Deutschland 5000 5139 NUTS 1
• Ellada 2000 2000 NUTS 2
• España 5000 5000 NUTS 2
• France 5000 5301 NUTS 1
• Ireland 1400 1397 NUTS 3
• Italia 5000 5134 NUTS 1
• Luxembourg 1000 1009 NUTS 1
• Nederland 2000 2037 NUTS 1
• Österreich 2000 2000 NUTS 1
• Portugal 2000 2138 NUTS 2
• Finland 2000 2002 NUTS 2
• Sverige 2000 1951 NUTS 2
• United Kingdom 5150 5211 NUTS 1
• Total 43550 44340

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Scenario Hypotheses

• Scenarios based on hypotheses on regional
  distribution of EU ICTs investments
• among regions
• lagging vs advanced
• among ICTs policies suggested by eEurope 2002 (DG
  Information society)
• accessibility
• internet connections
• high-tech employment

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Distribution of ICTs investments according to
different ICTs policies scenarios
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Forecasting methodology

• 2 of average annual ICTs investments in 15 EU
  member states
• estimate of marginal efficiency of investments in
  accessibility, internet connections and high-tech
  employment
• forecast of pc GDP average annual growth rate in
  20 years
• cohesion indicators (lorenz curve, gini
  coefficient)

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Scenario A pc GDP average annual growth rate
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Scenario B pc GDP average annual growth rate
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Scenario C pc GDP average annual growth rate
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Cohesion indicators
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Typology of regions by ICTs policies impact
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Framework for Horizontal Policy Analysis
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EU/National Policy Interaction Summary
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Conclusions and Policy recommendations

• Transport policies have only small effects
  compared to macro trends
• Large increases in regional accessibility
  transform into small changes in regional economic
  activity
• Regions in the periphery especially with
  underdeveloped transport and ICT networks are
  most positively affected by investments in
  infrastructure
• Past and future transport infrastructure policies
  show positive impact on cohesion in EU-27
• Uniform pricing policies have a slightly negative
  impact on cohesion in EU-27
• ICT policies can have a considerable effect on
  spatial development depending on the way of
  implementation (balanced vs concentrated)
• Transport policies in peripheral regions may
  weaken agglomeration advantages, whereas ICT
  policies are supposed to be generally growth
  enhancing and improve peripheral access to
  information and communication
• Comprehensive transport policy must be a coherent
  single policy in Europe, not a menu from which
  each member can pick

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Further Research

• Cross-validation of results of SASI and CGEurope
• Refinement of regional production function of
  SASI model
• Inclusion of maritime transport and inland
  waterway in CGEurope and SASI
• Causality analysis of regional production and
  accessibility
• Model refinement of STIMA according to data
  availability
• Model integration of SASI and STIMA
• Polycentricity, operational measurement concept
• Analysis of overloaded corridors, depending on
  data availability from external sources
• Polycentric connectivity
• Qualitative analysis of specific policies