Spranger 1

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Application of critical loads in European air
pollution abatement strategies

• T. Spranger
• German Federal Environmental Agency
• and many other Europeans!

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• Organisation
• Methods
• Results
• Critical Loads
• Critical Load Exceedances
• Future
• Summary

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Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air
Pollution (CLRTAP)

• Framework Convention (1979) and 8 specific
  Protocols
• science and effects-based gtgt1000 experts and
  scientists networked
• Scientific support from 3 core activities
• atmospheric measurements and modelling
• effects
• integrated assessment

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CLRTAP approaches

• BAT Technical emission standards
• Effects-based approach Emission abatement
  policy driven by critical load exceedances
• Integrated assessment modelling Least-cost
  emission abatement optimization
• National Emission Ceilings per pollutant

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Use of CLs in Integrated Assessment Models
European deposition data/maps
Integrated Assessment Models
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Executive Body
Working Group on
StrategiesReview
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Focus of ICP MM

• Critical Loads
• acidification
• eutrophication
• Cd, Pb, Hg effects
• Dynamic models ? Target Loads
• Nitrogen effects modeling
• Links to climate change and biodiversity
• Harmonization of data methods
• Manual _at_www.icpmapping.org

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• Effects thresholdsfor sustainable protection
  from air pollutionshould
• reflect cause-effect relationsscientifically
  founded
• be simple to apply in IAMs
• be regionally variable (ecosystem specific)
• be constant in time

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Critical Load

• the highest deposition of () below which
• harmful effects in ecosystem structure and
  function
• do not occur
• according to present knowledge
• long-term ecosystem capacity
• eutrophication, acidification, heavy metal
  effects
• terrestrial and (non-marine) aquatic ecosystems
• SMB and empirical
• used as sustainability indicators for policy
  guidance

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Eutrophication CLnut(N)
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Acification CLmax(S)
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Biases and uncertainties

• Method harmonization (Manual) and control
• Cross-border comparisons
• Analysis of NFC data submissions by CCE
• But in the end, it is only useful to analyze
  b.u. in an Integrated Assessment framework
• RAINS Review (Grennfelt et al. 2004)
• model design, uncertainties, abatement
  technologies costs, communication
• general conclusion RAINS is a reliable and
  scientifically defendable tool for policy advice
• various recommendations

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Main results of CLRTAP negotiations

• National Emission Ceilings (2010) for European
  countries
• Emission reductions 1990 - 2010 SO2 -60
  NOx -40 NH3 -17
• Eutrophication gtgt Acidification
• Exceedances (N and Ac) dominated by ammonia
  emissions from intensive animal husbandry
• Additional (health) effect from S and N
  emissions Secondary particles

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Exceedance eutrophication
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Exceedance acidification
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Future I

• Three protocols being reviewed
• Focus on particulate matter, nitrogen,
  hemispheric transport, ships, renewables,
  non-technical measures
• parallel process with European Community (using
  CLRTAP data and methods concerning effects)

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SO2 emissions by sector EU-15 kt
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SO2 emissions by sector New EU Member States
kt
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NOx emissions by sectorEU-15 kt
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NOx emissions by sector New EU Member States kt
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Emissions from shipping of land-based EU-25
emissions
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NH3 emissions EU-15 kt
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NH3 emissions New Member States kt
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Future II

• Coupled models
• Nr other air pollutant effects,
• climate change,
• biodiversity

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The Netherlands 1960
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Use of biogeochemistry-biodiversity models for
the Convention

• Great potential
• Current application predict biodiversity
  impacts of emission scenarios
• Future application should be define
  biodiversity-based critical/target loads

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Use of critical loads outside the Convention

• National legislation
• EU CAFE
• Convention on Biodiversity
• EU Habitat Directive

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But nitrogen is more than LRTAP The nitrogen
cascade
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Global Nr fluxes
ca. 1850
1890
J. Galloway et al. 2002
today
1990
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Integrated approach to Nitrogen pollution?
C
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Conclusions (also for U.S.)

• Environmental and health risks due to air
  pollution in parts of N America similar to Europe
• include ammonia!
• Effects-based emission abatement policy has been
  cost-effective and successful in Europe,but CLs
  are still widely exceeded
• Eutrophication gt Acidification
• will be increasingly linked to biodiversity and
  climate change policies and targets
• Multi-media and multi-effect research and policy
  development needed to
• reduce uncertainties
• link optimize management and abatement
  strategies

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More information UNECE Convention
www.unece.org/env/lrtap EMEP
www.emep.int WG on Effects www.unece.org/env/wg
e ICP MM www.icpmapping.org RAINS IAM _at_
IIASA www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/ EU CAFE
ec.europa.eu/comm/environment/air/cafe/ Internl
Nitrogen Initiative www.initrogen.org
Thank you for your attention!
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The Protocols

• Implementation of and compliance with Protocols
  in force
• 1985 and 1994 Sulphur Protocols
• 1988 NOx Protocol
• 1991 VOC Protocol
• 1998 Heavy Metals Protocol
• 1998 POP Protocol
• 1999 Gothenburg Protocol
• multi-pollutant multi-effect
• three most recent Protocols under review
• particulate matter!

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History of effects-related CLRTAP bodies
No. of Parties having participated in Task Force
meetings and/or provided data, as of 28 Feb 2005
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Working Group on Effects
ICP Forests
41
ICP Waters
24
ICP Materials
19
ICP Vegetation
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ICP Modelling and Mapping
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(formerly Task Force on Mapping)
ICP Integrated Monitoring
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Joint Task Force on Health
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Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling of
the Working Group on Strategies and Review
1999 Gothenburg Protocol
16
1998 POPs Protocol
22
1998 Heavy Metal Protocol
24
1994 Sulphur Protocol
25
1991 VOC Protocol
21
1988 Nitrogen Oxides Protocol
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1985 Sulphur Protocol
22
1984 EMEP Protocol
41
1979 Convention
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1980
1990
2000
2005
1979
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
number of ratifications, as of 28 Feb 2005
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Working Group on Effects, Sep 2005

• Effects-based emission reduction strategies
• New long-term strategy
• New critical and target loads
• acidification (CL, TL)
• eutrophication (CL)
• heavy metals (CL Pb, Cd, Hg)
• Cooperation between CCE and CIAM
• Importance of the EECCA region (Eastern Europe,
  the Caucasus and Central Asia)

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Long-term effects strategy

• Priorities
• monitoring, assessment, exposure-response
• combination of stresses and feedbacks
• air pollution, climate change and biodiversity
  links
• modelling and mapping
• validation and uncertainties
• new heavy metals and POPs
• Benefit assessments

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Dynamic models

• reconstruction
• prognosis
• CL validation

Damage delay time
Recovery delay time
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If at present
Acidification
Critical Load (CL) is
Not exceeded
Exceeded
Not violated
Chemical criterion is
TL Target Load DDT Damage Delay Time RDT
Recovery Delay Time
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Reduced exceedance of CL(acid)1990 - 2010
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Reduced exceedance of CLnut(N)1990 - 2010
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How to link d(emissions) to d(CL
exceedances) Impact coefficients for
eutrophication
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Impact coefficients for acidity
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Common 2006 workplan items

• Report
• support of effects-based approaches for the
  review and possible revision of the Convention
  protocols (to be defined by the Executive Body)
• Summarize
• dose-response functions
• stock at risk
• Review
• links between field observations and critical
  loads

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European Transboundary Nitrogen Activity
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NitroEurope Challenges

• What are the quantitative components of nitrogen
  budgets for European ecosystems and how do these
  respond to the drivers of global change?
• How much does nitrogen control carbon exchange
  and net greenhouse gas budgets for European
  terrestrial ecosystems?
• How could a European N emissions strategy
  contribute to EU objectives in reducing
  greenhouse gas emissions?

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COST 729 Challenges

• Much knowledge on causal chain and interaction
  with other cycles
• Development and extension of IAM necessary
• Source receptor modelling, including atmosphere
  biosphere interactions and climatic influences
• Non-linearities and coupling with other cycles
• N effects climate (N2O, aerosols)
• Climate change affects SRM through meteo and
  chemistry
• Feedback mechanisms

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ESF Project Nitrogen in Europe

• Assessment of alteration of (European) N cycle
• Scientific Network Programme (5 years)
• Overviews of literature, current studies,
  databases and models relevant for the N cascade
• Grants for exchange visits
• Workshops
• Summer schools
• Conferences
• Databases, models
• Webpage, dissemination

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Nr production in 1995 and 2050 Tg N/y
2050 production scaled to
-
gt Population increase relative to 1995
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gt N. American per capita Nr production
after Galloway and Cowling, 2002