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Vulnerability to climate change

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Respiration temperature, soil water, photosynthesis ... Photosynthesis, Respiration and Net Ecosystem Productivity for a 50-y-old Douglas-fir stand ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Vulnerability to climate change


1
Climate Change and Douglas-fir Dave
Spittlehouse, Research Branch, BC Min. Forest
and Range, Victoria
2
Outline
  • Climate changes for PNW
  • Implications for Douglas-fir
  • Management vulnerability assessments and
    adaptation

3
(Adapted from IPCC - Climate Change 2007 The
Physical Science Basis)
4
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Climate change and Douglas-fir
9
Change in Douglas-fir climates in US
? 4?C warming
(Rehfeldt et al. 2006)
10
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13
Environmental factors
  • Photosynthesis light, nutrition, soil water,
    temperature, CO2
  • Respiration temperature, soil water,
    photosynthesis
  • Physiology (e.g., carbon allocation, bud set)
    temperature - chilling, frost
  • Genetics
  • Disturbance fire, insects, disease,
    harvest/reforestation, weather (wind, frost)

14
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17
Water availability and growth
  • Precipitation in fall, winter and early spring gtgt
    evaporative demand
  • Amount of water in May through July to meet
    evaporative demand
  • Summer water availability (May, June July
    Rainfall) 60 of water storage capacity of the
    root zone
  • Water storage capacity f(texture, stone
    content, depth)

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19
Influence of climate change
  • ?Temperature ?Evaporative ?Summer water C
    demand () balance (mm)
  • 1 3 2 7
  • 3 10 4 15

? ppt -10 -20 -20 -32
-25 -40 -30 -45
-40 -53
(Spittlehouse 2003)
20
Change in growth by 2050 for the CGCM2-A2 scenario
  • Evaporation Precipitation 10
    reduction in volume
  • Temperature 15 reduction in NPP
  • Total 25 reduction over 50 y

21
Reforestation
  • Increased risk of failure due to drier summers

22
  • Possible offsets?
  • CO2 fertilization
  • Increased water use efficiency

23
Disturbance
  • Fire 4?C temperature - Increase length fire
    season 4 to 20 days - Increase severity
    ratio by 0 to 50 (Flannigan et al.
    2005)
  • Insects and disease - ?

24
Vulnerability to climate change
  • Timber supply for the next 50 years
  • Reforestation and trees for gt50 years
  • Forest operations
  • Water quality and quantity
  • NTFP
  • Wildlife habitat
  • Conservation

25
Adaptation
  • Reduce vulnerability - Minimise negative
    effects - Take advantage of opportunities
  • Biological - Adapt the forest to the changing
    climate
  • Societal - Adapt to the response of forests to
    the changing climate

26
Challenges
  • When will we know enough to respond?
  • Which climate scenario?
  • Species/provenance climate sensitivity
  • Developing interim adaptive actions
  • Who manages the risk?
  • Scale

27
Summary
  • Significant change in the area of climate
    suitable for Douglas-fir
  • Provenances and optimum climate
  • Reductions in productivity - increase in
    respiration - increase in water restriction to
    photosynthesis
  • Increase in fire, reforestation failure
  • Vulnerability assessments
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