Deliberative Approaches to Manage Systemic Risks

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Deliberative Approaches to Manage Systemic Risks

• ESOFStockholm, 24-29 August, 2004
• Ortwin Renn
• University of Stuttgart and
• DIALOGIK gGmbH

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Part 1

• What is special about risk ?
• Important Lessons for Analytic-deliberative
  Processes

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Risk CharacteristicsThree challenges of risk
management

• Complexity in assessing causal and temporal
  relationships
• Uncertainty
• variation among individual targets
• measurement and inferential errors
• genuine stochastic relationships
• system boundaries and ignorance
• Ambiguity in interpreting results

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Modern Systemic Risks

• Characteristics
• complex
• second order uncertainty
• ambiguous
• open system boundaries
• Problems
• uncertain probabilities and damage potential
• ripple effect beyond risk source
• high social mobilization

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Need for different risk management strategies

• Dealing with routine, mundane risks
• Dealing with complex and sophisticated risks
  (high degree of modeling necessary)
• Dealing with highly uncertain risks (high degree
  of second order uncertainty)
• Dealing with highly controversial risks (high
  degree of ambiguity)
• Dealing with eminent dangers (need for fast
  responses)

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Risk Management Strategies Five management
regimes

• Routine Risk Management
• Sufficient knowledge of key parameters
• Little complexity, clear causal knowledge
• Standard Assessment
• Risk-Benefit Analysis
• Risk-risk-comparisons
• Risk-Based Management
• High complexity
• Little uncertainty and ambiguity
• Expanded risk assessment
• Risk standards with safety factors
• Risk-Benefit Comparison

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Risk Management Strategies Five management
regimes

• Precaution-Based Management
• High uncertainty or ignorance
• Adverse effects plausible
• Appraisal of uncertainty
• Goal avoidance of irreversible effects
• Instruments
• Negotiation between too little and too much
  precaution
• classic ALARA etc.
• new containment, diversification, monitoring
  substitution

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Risk Management Strategies Five management
regimes

• Discourse-Based Management
• High ambiguity
• Goal to find consensus.infomred dissent or
  tolerance
• Instruments
• stakeholder involvement
• public debate
• Prevention
• clearly intolerable risk
• banning or substitution
• exception extreme benefit

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Application to Deliberation

• For routine risk management, communication should
  include
• Information on the process of risk management
• Information on potential protective behavior
• Information on routine risk management actions
• If necessary, a hot-line for questions and
  observations
• For highly complex risks, communication and
  deliberation should include
• All of the above
• Discourse among experts on range of risk
• Additional effort for collecting feedback

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Application to Deliberation

• For highly uncertain risks, communication and
  deliberation should include
• All of the above
• Involvement of major stakeholders
• Possibly, public hearings
• Complete documentation and publication of all
  steps of decision making
• For highly ambiguous risks, communication and
  deliberation should include
• All of the above
• Involvement of all parties affected by the risk
  decision

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The Risk Management Escalator (from simple via
complex and uncertain to ambiguous phenomena)
Risk Tradeoff Analysis and Deliberation
Necessary Risk Balancing Necessary Risk
Assessment Necessary Types of Conflict cognitive
evaluative normative Actors Risk
Managers External Experts Stakeholders such as
Industry, Directly Affected Groups Representatives
of the Public(s) Discourse participatory Ambiguo
us
Risk Balancing Necessary Risk Assessment
Necessary Types of Conflict cognitive evaluative
Actors Risk Managers External Experts Stakeholder
s such as Industry, Directly Affected
Groups Discourse reflective Uncertain
Scientific Risk Assessment Necessary Types of
Conflict cognitive Actors Risk
Managers External Experts Discourse cognitive Com
plex
Routine operation Actors Risk managers Discourse
internal Simple
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Part 2

• A model of analytic-deliberative decision
  making for risk management purposes
• The Cooperative Discourse Model

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Candidates for Participation Models

• Organized stakeholders
• Hearing
• Round Tables (Forum, Dialogue Processes)
• Negotiated Rulemaking
• Mediation and Alternate Conflict Resolution
• General public
• Ombudsperson
• Public Hearings
• Citizen Advisory Committees
• Citizen Forum, Planning Cells, Citizen Juries
• Consensus Conferences (Danish Model)

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The Cooperative Discourse Model I

• Three components
• Criteria and values from organized stakeholders
• Facts and cognitive judgments from experts
• Balancing and assignment of trade-offs by
  representatives of the general public (or
  affected citizens)
• Procedure
• Identification of values, concerns and criteria
  through stakeholder deliberation
• Assessment of factual consequences of each option
  on each criterion though expert workshops
• Option evaluation and recommendations by randomly
  selected citizens

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The Cooperative Discourse Model II

• Methods and Techniques
• Value tree analysis for eliciting stakeholder
  concerns
• Group Delphi technique for expert judgments and
  assessments
• Planning cell methods relying on
  multi-attribute-decision techniques for
  incorporating public preferences and values
• Advantages of three-step approach
• Fairness through random selection and systematic
  selection of stakeholders
• Competence through involvement of experts and
  decision makers

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Application of the Cooperative Discourse Model

• Germany
• Energy scenarios for 1. German Enquete Commission
• Waste disposal management plans for the Northern
  Black Forest Area
• Switzerland
• Siting of a landfill in the Canton of Aargau
• USA
• Sludge disposal planning in New Jersey

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Part 3

• General Conclusions
• Requirements for deliberation

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Summary I

• Five risk management regimes should be used to
  deal with risks
• routine risk management standard risk
  assessments
• risk-based management expanded risk assessments
  risk-benefit ratios
• precaution-based management negotiated safety
  level under uncertainty containment
• discourse-based management more public input and
  stakeholder involvement
• prevention phasing out except for special
  benefits

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 Summary II Deliberative requirements  - tech
nical, social, and cultural competence - integra
tion of different constituencies - anecdotal as
well as systematic evidence - deliberative and
representative modes of decision
making Potential model Cooperative
discourse  - values and options through
stakeholders - factual assessments by expert
workshops (Group Delphi) - evaluation by
citizen panels
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 Final Note Deliberative processes for
involving stakeholders and the general public are
instruments of art and science They require a
solid theoretical knowledge, a personal
propensity to engage in group interactions, and
lots of practical experience