Coastal erosion risk mapping

1
Coastal erosion risk mapping
2
In the next 15 minutes Ill give you An update
on National Erosion Mapping Project Youll give
me Advice support on Timing Publication

3
Why are we producing erosion maps?

• Making Space for Water
• to widen publicly available risk mapping to
  include coastal erosion probabilities and risk
• Environment Strategy
• good quality information is available at the
  point where people make decisions

4
Our shared inheritance
5
(No Transcript)
6
How reliable are the maps?

• Best available science to improve existing
  information
• Data from
• Future Coast
• Local Authority data
• SANDS database
• Latest RACE methodology
• Joint EA /LA approach
• dedicated teams
• Support from CLG and Defra

• SMPs
• UKCP09

7
How do we show the risk?

• 2 scenarios
• No Active Intervention
• SMP2 policy
• 3 epochs
• 0 20 years
• 20 50 years
• 50 100 years
• 3 confidence bands
• 5
• 50
• 95
• For residential and commercial properties

8
Three Big Issues

• People trust locals and not the government

Being Alarmed by erosion maps
Ignorance and myths
9
Distrust of non-locals
10
Alarmed by the maps

• The worries people had were....
• Wont this blight everyone's houses on the
  coast?
• Will it affect insurance / mortgage?
• How can I trust the map is correct?

User Quotes I don't think it's a good idea,
because erosion is too difficult to predict. It
could cause a lot of grief for the public.
Professional
User Quotes My first instinct is, are the public
going to be interested in it at all? I am
concerned how useful it will be. You have to be
very careful how people are going to use this.
This is an poorly understood science.
Professional
11
Fundamental disagreement
The professionals recommend.....
12
Ignorance Myths
Notinterested
13
Proposals for presentation for the public

• Existing maps
• Aims for this information
• Format is to be easily accessible for the public
• Link publication of the information with SMP2s
• Additional public engagement activities to
  support publication of the maps.
• Interactive, web-based format
• Complex information, simple format

14
Concerns about existing map

• Complex information
• Epochs
• Range of erosion rates / confidence bands
• Scenarios
• Unrealistic impression of certainty
• Doesnt reflect what really happens

15
Proposal Landing page
16
Detail page

• Interactive, web-based format
• Complex information, simple format
• Need your input in
• Operating authorities
• Info on local works
• Stories

17
(No Transcript)
18
Proposals for professional partners

• High level statistics
• Erosion rates per length for each Local Authority
• GIS database format
• Coordinates along the coast
• 18 data points for each coordinate
• Guide on how to use the data / produce maps for
  SMP2s
• SMP2 addendum
• Assessment of impact on SMP2 policies
• We dont anticipate major changes to SMP2
  policies

19
Timing

• Batched with SMPs
• As soon as ready

• By Region / LA
• LA small sections
• Regions delayed publication

or
Publication
or

• Through Regions
• Link to approval of SMPs
• Regional lead on engagement

• Through Coastal Groups
• Stronger link to SMP
• Reinforces
• LA lead on erosion
• Joint approach

20
Business transition action plan

• Business Users Group
• Developing procedures for updating the maps.
• Communications strategy
• Internal / external
• Coastal engagement activities
• Funded by Defra
• Recruitment underway
• Awareness days / training
• for Area teams / Local Authorities
• What are your concerns? Are there / communication
  gaps / omissions, or wider implications for you,
  us and the public?

21
Summary

• Update
• Your advice support for
• Format public / professional partners
• Timing with SMPs
• Published jointly / Coastal Group lead
• Business transition
• Engagement approach
• We are improving our understanding of coastal
  erosion and informing people about it now, so
  that we can all adapt together to our changing
  coast