Aeronautical Decision Making

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Aeronautical Decision Making

• AF 202

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Objectives

• Intro
• Decision Making
• Risk Assessment
• Hazardous Attitudes
• Hazard Detection
• DECIDE model

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ADM

• Aeronautical Decision Making
• A systematic approach to risk assessment and
  stress management
• Helps us understand how personal attitudes
  influence decision making
• Helps us see how we can modify those attutudes

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ADM

• Progress is being made to improve aircraft
  equipment and systems along with pilot services.
• However the human factor of flight remains the
  same
• 80 of all aviation accidents are attributed to
  the human factor

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Percentage of Accidents
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Judgment

• The FAA believes that good judgment is something
  you can be taught not just a by-product of
  experience
• Do you think it is possible to be taught good
  judgment?
• If so, what can prevent someone from being taught
  good judgment?

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Decision Making
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Decision Making

• How to improve your decision making
• Identify personal attitudes hazardous to safe
  flying
• Learn behavior modification techniques
• Learning how to recognize and cope with stress
• Developing risk assessment skills
• Having the ability to evaluate your ADM skills
  (self honesty)

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Risk Assessment

• The two defining elements of ADM are hazard and
  risk
• Hazard being the condition, event or circumstance
  encountered
• Risk is the assessment of the seriousness of that
  hazard

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Risk Assessment

• Pilots can come to different assessments of the
  same hazard
• Pilot experience
• Pilot training
• Pilot attitude
• It is not a guarantee that a, say, less
  experienced pilot will always under-asses a
  hazard. The pilot could think it more serious
  than it really is

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Hazardous Attitudes

• One of the first risks is pilot attitude
• The FAA groups 5 hazardous attitudes
• Hazardous attitudes are not as easily dealt with
  by just reading a book. WHY?

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Hazardous Attitudes

• Some of these attitudes may be temporary due to a
  bad day
• However much of the danger behind hazardous
  attitudes is because they can be rooted in our
  mentality, personality, and cultural influence
• This makes identification very personal

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Hazardous Attitude

• Anti Authority
• Dont like anyone telling you what to do
• Thinks the rules are silly or unnecessary
• You always question authority
• Subtly can be present simply by the easy lack of
  respect of persons in authority

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Hazardous Attitudes

• Risk
• Ignore rules meant for safety or reasons that you
  may not know about
• Wont take seriously the lessons or wisdom taught
  by those in authority which could help you in the
  end
• In reality, if it doesnt kill you or get you in
  trouble, it will probably get you fired

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Hazardous Attitude

• Impulsivity
• Impulsive shopping may leave you with credit card
  debt, but impulsive flying could leave you DEAD!
• Reacting to situations without thinking about
  them
• Assessment of the seriousness of the risk is
  usually wrong

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Hazardous Attitudes

• Risk
• If you over-react to a non-serious risk you could
  make a non-serious situation more serious
• Improper assessment could lead you to the wrong
  action for the situation
• You basically are ignoring what you have been
  taught. All wisdom goes out the window

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Hazardous Attitudes

• Invulnerability
• False sense of security
• All that stuff happens to other people
• Could be an over estimation of your ability
• It happens to them because theyre idiots

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Hazardous Attitudes

• Risk
• Too relaxed on procedures and precautionary
  actions (i.e. clearing turns, position reporting)
• Not fully prepared when a situation actually does
  happen to you
• A better chance youll take more foolish risks

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Hazardous Attitudes

• Macho
• The pilot disease
• Prove yourself to others or just to get attention
  (or impress a girl so you can have a valentines
  date)
• Think you need to be better than everyone

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Hazardous Attitudes

• Risk
• You do stupid stuff!!
• The desire to be better, to be liked, to impress,
  to be recognized, to be applauded by other people
  can be stronger than your reason if left
  unchecked
• It can backfire on you quick

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Hazardous Attitudes

• Resignation
• Give up because whats the use? I cant make a
  difference.
• Its all based on luck, karma, the alignment of
  the stars anyway
• Leave the response to the situation up to others
• You dont question others when you should just
  because you are a nice guy.

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Hazardous Attitudes

• Risk
• A fixable situation never gets fixed
• Other people do things they shouldnt because you
  were to nice to confront them
• You are really an ineffective pilot because the
  majority of training is not so you can stay
  level, but deal with hazardous situation.
• After all a computer can stay level so why do we
  need you?

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Operational Pitfalls

• Honestly, though most issues are not able to be
  summed up by 5 attitudes and many issues are a
  combination of them
• Operational pitfalls are classic behavioral traps
  which pilots often fall into (Can you see which
  hazardous attitudes come into play?)

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Operational Pitfalls

• Peer Pressure
• An emotional response to what others think about
  you
• Mind Set
• Inability to recognize or cope with changes that
  are different from anticipated or planned

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Operational Pitfalls

• Get-There-Itis
• Fixation on the goal or destination impairs good
  judgment and disregards any alternative course of
  action (like not going!)
• Duck-Under Syndrome
• Sneak a peek by ducking under minimums on an
  approach because you assume there is a fudge
  factor for obstacle clearance

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Operational Pitfalls

• Scud Running
• Pushing pilot and aircraft limits trying to
  maintain visual contact with terrain while trying
  to avoid it
• Continuing VFR into IFR
• Just stupid (especially if not Instrument rated)

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Operational Pitfalls

• Getting behind the aircraft
• Allowing the situation to control you instead of
  controlling the situation
• Constantly surprised. moments of blank thought
  since you dont know what to do
• Lost of situation awareness
• Like getting behind the aircraft but specifically
  related to keeping track of where you are

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Operational Pitfalls

• Operating without adequate fuel reserve
• Simply ignoring the rules so you dont have to
  stop for refuel and can stretch it that extra
  mile.
• Flying outside the envelope
• Flying a little overweight or a little out of CG
  range. After all there is probably fudge
  factor built in.

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Operational Pitfalls

• Neglect flight planning/preflight
• Is the plane really safe?
• Do you really know where youre going
• Are you really prepared for what could happen?
• Is the weather really going to cooperate?

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Hazard Detection
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PAVE Checklist

• P for Pilot
• Am I ready for this trip?
• Mentally Hazardous Attitudes, stress
• Physically IMSAFE checklist
• Experientially Do I meet proper currency
  requirements

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PAVE Checklist

• A for Aircraft
• Am I familiar with this aircraft
• Is it equipped properly and functioning
• Do I have the proper runway length
• It is weighted properly
• Can it make it high enough to clear all obstacles
  or terrain?
• Is the plane properly and sufficiently fueled

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PAVE Checklist

• V for enVironment
• Current weather here, enroute, and at destination
• Will a slight change in un-forecasted weather be
  hazardous
• Am I comfortable with the weather situations I
  could encounter
• Can I handle the terrain I am over
• Do I know all I can about the airport
• Do I know all airspace I may encounter

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PAVE Checklist

• E for External Pressures
• Job pressures (dont disappoint the passenger)
• Desire to prove yourself or impress
• Personal goal
• Pride to meet a challenge that may be above your
  experience level

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Decide Model
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ADM

• While making decisions is often an automatic
  process, knowing whether you have the proper
  thought process is important
• Without knowing your thought process you can
  easily be led into impulsivity

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ADM

• The DECIDE model with an engine failure during
  cruise flight
• Detectthat something has changed
• Hey my engine has failed on me, that is different
  than it was before
• Most people get this part

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ADM

• Estimatethe severity of the situation and a need
  to react
• I think my engine being failed is pretty serious
  and something should be done about it
• Again this is usually obvious to people

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ADM

• Choosea desirable outcome
• What would be the best outcome to this engine
  failure?
• Most students show, by their actions, that the
  best outcome is to land in a field
• Wouldnt the best outcome be that the engine
  starts again???

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ADM

• Identifynecessary actions to reach the desired
  outcome previously discussed
• If you want the engine to start, do the engine
  restart procedure, not look for a field
• In all honestly this procedure in a 172 takes 7
  seconds (assuming you know the engine restart
  procedure)

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ADM

• Dothe actions you just identified as necessary
• So do the engine restart procedure
• EvaluateThe effects of the actions
• Hey the engine started so were ok, maybe I
  should go home though
• Hey the engine is still dead, go back to Choose

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ADM

• While this may seem silly, it is to prove a
  point. That point beingTHINK!!
• What outcome is best and if it is in your power
  to do something about it, then DO IT!
• If that outcome does not happen then what is
  second best.

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