Gmb Verification PowerPoint PPT Presentations

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Zonal mean crossing section. Area mean vertical plots. Instantaneous global map plots ... 264 hrs after = 0Z 8 30 6 500mb .2841 .1233 -.3993 .1642 ...

Raw operational & hind-cast data for all ... Include hind-casts to permit user ... Sample size larger (hind-casts important for longer leads with ...

USAGE: Construct forecast pdf based on finite sample ... Construct distribution of verifying observations (analysis), given selected fcst ...

SINGLE FORECASTS Statistical rendition of pdf. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS NWP ... record (even for hind-casts) Statistical significance in comparative verification ...

(Round Robins) Define Test Method Variability (Precision) ... Proficiency Sample Programs (Round Robins) Increase Number of Samples (n) ...

Title: PowerPoint Presentation Last modified by: Fanglin Yang Created Date: 1/1/1601 12:00:00 AM Document presentation format: On-screen Show Other titles

Independent sample at District Lab ... Independent Verification - Plant. District Materials takes two samples per 12,000 tons ... Independent Verification. Roadway ...

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Representing model errors in ensemble forecasting ... http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/THORPEX/PI-shop-2006.html. 4 ... Univ. of Miami/CIMAS ...

FOCUS: Increase reliability by adjusting width of forecast PDF ... Possible positions (rank) For the Verification: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11. Uncalibrated ...

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/index.html ... Use same algorithms/codes at both MSC and NWS ... AND CORRESPONDING CLIMATE PERCENTILES (SHADES OF COLOR) ...

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The Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (ATREC) was a collaborative effort ... These new results supersede preliminary NCEP evaluation ...

Identify High impact weather (HIW) events ... SDMs collect all the information and pass to Yucheng Song. Run NCEP ETKF targeting software, generating Siberia ...

INITIAL CONDITION RELATED ERRORS. Sample initial errors. Run ensemble of forecasts ... Poorly predictable large scale wave. Eastern Pacific Western US ...

Adaptive approach to collection of observational data: ... W 20070212 -1 -1 -1 -1 110W ,32N 36. E 20070212 1 1 1 1 77W ,38N 60. W 20070215 1 -1 1 1 120W ,45N 24 ...

Average 2-day advantage. Prob. Evaluation (cost-loss analysis) ... All three multi-model ensembles are better than NCEP's ... simple multi-model ensemble ...

Title: Use of AQUA radiances in the NCEP GDAS Author: rtreadon Last modified by: mlhart Created Date: 4/5/2004 12:02:45 PM Document presentation format

Title: 1 Author: user Last modified by: administrator Created Date: 12/14/2006 3:47:37 AM Document presentation format: Company

Tenth ECMWF Workshop on Meteorological Operational Systems WCMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom 14-18 November 2005 Summarized By

Write into BUFR file PREPQC as the only obs to make sanl using SSI to ... improvement from using the ECMWF IC (even as pgbanl 1x1) in fact, ECMWF ...

NCEP Chemistry Modeling Overview and Status (With a focus on NEMS AQ development) Sarah Lu NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center with acknowledgments to many ...

Stephen Jascourt and Bill Bua. COMET NWP resources. Stephen. ... Baldwin-Schichtel diagnostic algorithm. Tends to have bias against SN in Eta; overforecasts ZR ...

The quick-reference/main-points version. Stephen Jascourt Stephen.Jascourt@noaa.gov ... Comparison with the Baldwin algorithm and example skew-T plots from the model ...

Title: Synthesized Compact Models (SyCaMore) for Mixed Signal Design and Noise Analysis Robert W. Dutton Stanford University Author: Dutton Group

Probabilistic evaluation: simple measurement. Probabilistic evaluation: multi-categories ... Reliability measurement, system bias detected. positive/negative ...

A Severe Weather Proxy Developed from the NOMADS Real Time Data Base of an ... GFS model run history, including unpacking the model GRIB files and organizing ...

Title: Ensemble Data Author: NCEP_USER Last modified by: ztoth Created Date: 5/19/2004 7:37:42 PM Document presentation format: On-screen Show Company

DingChen Hou and Ken Campana EMC. David Michaud, Brent Gorden and Luke ... ETIM is better than AEMN. Hurricane Track Errors (All Basins: 08/20-09/30/2005) Cases ...

Adaptive Use of AQUA Brightness Temperatures in Winter Storm Reconnaissance Case ... as determined through WSR (areas containing 90% or more of maximum sens. value) ...

Projection (extrapolation) of ... Projection (interpolation) of coarse resolution info onto finer scales ... Interpolation in. Space. Time. Across variables ' ...

... (MAC) established August 2004 by Jack Hayes Director, NWS Office of ... Contacts: Jaime Daniels NESDIS (b) (a) (c) NESDIS' GOES Effective Cloud Amount ...

David Michaud, Yuqiu Zhu, Brent Gordon NCO. Hua-Lu Pan, Steve ... and Palmer, 2004), Cellular Automaton Stochastic Backscatterused to determine the perterbation ...

LAND REFORM AND FOOD SECURITY IN SOUTHERN AFRICA: A GENDER PERSPECTIVE

CRP. BSS. RPSS. EV. ROC. NH. 2 Meters Temperature Scores (NCEP .vs NCEPb) ... CRP Skill Score is. 21. Ranked Probabilistic Score ...

Adjust mask to tune initial perturbation. Fixed bugs for calculating re-scaling factors ... Tuning initial perturbation size is for reducing spread for short ...

Expand forecasting with new dimension of uncertainty ... Expand NDFD/NDGD database to include forecast uncertainty (ST) ... of expanded forecast process ...

80 members per cycle, 2 cycles per day from MSC & NWS ... NOAA / MSC high level agreement about joint ... Determine weights and combine MSC and NCEP ensemble ...

PERTURBATION VS' ERROR CORRELATION ANALYSIS PECA

CASE DEPENDENT ESTIMATE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. PROPAGATION OF ... Major impediment to improved services. Telecommunication gap. Serious bottleneck. 22 ' ...

... Washington, US (www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov) (2) : UCAR Visiting Scientist, NCEP/EMC, Washington, US ... EXTRA INFORMATION FOR USERS? 5 'PREDICTING PREDICTABILITY' ...

NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) Prepared by Zoltan Toth Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP USA November 14, 2005

Air quality/dispersion, tropical cyclones, extra-tropical storms, fire weather, etc ... dry and wet spells (CONUS) Quantitative extreme river flow forecasting ...

3rd Qtr FY09 4th Qtr FY09. HWRF - Include gravity drag and wind-driven ... 4th Qtr FY09 2Qtr10. AQM ... 3rd Qtr FY09 1st Qtr FY10. Global Multi-Grid Wave Model ...

Zoltan Toth (NWS) & Andre Methot (MSC) Ackn. ... Andre Methot (CMC Development) Peter Houtekamer (Science) Zoltan Toth (Science) ...

Corrosion Training CP Designed Part 1 Galvanic Anodes (current requirement testing), Insulators, Test stations, Coatings Learning Over View Part One Current ...

Business Source Complete Advantages vs. BSP

What does 'Lean' really mean? Six Sigma. Lean Six Sigma ... see most often in popular culture the Cult of Lean, as it were but is only one aspect. ...

Make all forecasts look like model analysis. Independent of lead time ... Most likely value (expected value of forecast pdf) provided only ...