Technology Foresight

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Technology Foresight
Lecture 1 (Week 2)
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Introduction
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Technology Foresight?
The process in systematically attempting to look
into the longer term future of science,
technology, the economy and society with the aim
of identifying the areas of strategic research
and emerging generic technologies likely to yield
the greatest economic and social benefits
(Martin, 1993)
Reference



Martin, B
(1993)


Technology
Foreisght 6 A Review of Recent overseas
Programmes. Office of Science and Technology,
United Kingdom
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Five technological revolutions in 230 years
Main industries and infrastructures
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Five technological revolutions in 230 years
Main industries and infrastructures
(cont.)
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A brief history of technology
foresight
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A brief history (1)
Technology foresight is as old as human
existence. But it become a conscious activity
when man started to contemplate nature where
regularity of events caught their attention. The
discovery of natures regularities marked the
beginning of conscious effort of forecasting. In
the earlier times, the lack of scientific
knowledge had led man to attribute natural
occurrences to the supreme power of the divine.
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A brief history (2)
Technology forecasting began to unfold during the
industrial revolution - social change was
accelerated with new scientific discoveries and
technology inventions. But, at the time, many
forecasts were done by individuals who fantasized
about future technology invention. They wrote
scientific fictions with their wild imagination
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A brief history (3)
Technological forecasting was only approached
systematically in the mid-thirties of 20th
century with the introduction of USs National
Research Council. However, with the eruption of
2nd World War and later the inception of Cold
War, technological development was heavily driven
by the military for more sophisticated weapons.
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A brief history (4)
Technology forecasting gained increasing
recognition in the mid 1960s, with the
publication of Journal of Technological
Forecasting and Social Change in the 1967.
Also, the emergence of numerous groups and firms
engaged themselves with the future movement,
seeking to further explore and plan the future.
However, the euphoric quest and confidence in
technological forecasting faded in the 1970s as
participants were disillusioned by inaccurate
predictions. In US, there was also suspicion on
whether technology planning is necessary.
Proponents of pluralism prefer a laissez-faire
approach
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A brief history (5)
In the 1990s, the idea of forecasting was changed
into the idea of foresight and this has caused a
global resurrection in pushing various
countries to systematically analyze the future
prospect of their technological development
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Definition
From forecasting to foresight
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Forecasting
Before the introduction of the la prospective
(French) by Godet in 1982 and forecasting
(English) by Martin in 1995, the idea of
systematic future planning were based on the idea
of prediction and forecasting Prediction
To find out the one most probable future, only
one possible future. Forecast Not be obsessed
quest for accuracy. It allows a range of possible
futures to be included in the conclusion
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Forecasting
The definition of technology forecasting has been
defined in the as
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Forecasting
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Foresight
The process in systematically attempting to look
into the longer term future of science,
technology, the economy and society with the aim
of identifying the areas of strategic research
and emerging generic technologies likely to yield
the greatest economic and social benefits (Ben
Martin, 1993)
A systematic means of assessing those scientific
and technological developments which could have a
strong impact on industrial competitiveness,
wealth creation and quality of life (Luke
Georghiou, 1993)
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ATTENTION! This idea of foresight is similar to
the idea by Michel Godet on La Prospective. We
will discuss this further in the tutorial, where
you will be requested to read a paper by Goget
entitled "Forecasting" to "La Prospective A
New Way of Looking at the Future
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Important aspects of technology foresight

• Attempts to look into the future must be
  systematic to be called foresight

The exercise scoping, building expert and
stakeholder panels, reaching consensus and
prioritization, reporting, dissemination,
evaluation etc
The methods Extrapolative methods, creative
methods, priority setting methods etc
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Important aspects of technology foresight
(2) Foresight is concerned with longer term
vision, which is beyond normal planning horizon.
It usually goes beyond 5 years.
Long term
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Important aspects of technology foresight
(3) Foresight concentrates on emerging
technologies where there is a legitimate case
for government support. This is because companies
are often unwilling to fund strategic research
with limited prove of success in the market
Phase 1 Emergence
Phase II Early Growth
Phase III Late Growth
Phase IV Maturity
Degree of Maturity
Emerging Stage
Time
The Life Cycle of a Technology Source Perez and
Soete, 1988
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Worldwide publications related to fuel cell by
year of publication (1955-2005)
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Cumulative fuel cell units installed worldwide
(1991-2006)
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Important aspects of technology foresight
(4) Attention need to be given to social and
environmental impacts, not just those concerned
with wealth creation. This has led to some
technology foresight exercises to adopt more
problem oriented perspectives from the outset.
Economic development
Sustainable Development
Environmental protection
Social welfare
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Important aspects of technology foresight
(5) Science/technology push (capacity to conduct
scientific and technological research) needs to
be balanced with market pull (demand) and its
complex interaction.
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The Innovation Process
Definition of innovation

Broadly it means change but in
innovation studies it usually means profitable
technological change
Definition of technology

A body of knowledge,
tools, technique, derived from both science and
practical experience, that is used in the
development, design, production and application
of products, processes, systems and services
(Abetti, 1989)
Definition of technological innovation

A process
which includes the technical, design,
manufacturing, management and commercial
activities involved in the marketing of a new (or
improved) product or the first use of a new (or
improved) manufacturing products or equipment
(Freeman, 1987)
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The Innovation Process
(1) First generation Technology push

• Simple linear sequential
• Emphasis on RD
• Market is receptacle for the fruits of RD

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The Innovation Process
(2) Second generation Market pull

• Simple linear sequential
• Emphasis on marketing
• Market is the source of ideas for directing RD.
  
• RD has a reactive role

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The Innovation Process
(3) Third generation Coupling model

• Sequential but with many feedback loops
• Combination of push and pull
• Balance between RD and marketing
• Emphasis on integration between RD and
  marketing

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The Innovation Process
(4) Fourth generation Integrated model

• Parallel development with integrated development
  teams
• Strong supplier linkages
• Close coupling with leading edge customers
• Emphasis on integration between RD and
  manufacturing
• Horizontal collaboration

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THANK YOU! Any questions??