Technology Foresights: Renewables

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Technology Foresights Renewables

• Marianne Haug, Director of Office of Energy
  Efficiency,
• Technology and RD
• Debra Justus, IEA
• International Energy Agency
• Stavanger Forum
• 26 May 2004

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Renewable Energy Technologies
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2000 Fuel Shares of World Total Primary Energy
Supply
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Renewables in World Electricity Production
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IEA Total Primary Energy Supply 1970 - 2001
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Shares in TPES in 2001IEA
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IEA Electricity Production, 1970 - 2001

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IEA Renewables Supply1970 - 2001
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Average Annual Growth Rates of Renewable Energy
Sources in IEA
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Possible Strong Growth 2000 - 2010
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Focus for the Future

• RD and Innovation
• Technology Deployment
• Energy Policy 3 Es
• Energy security
• Economic development
• Environmental protection

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IEA Government Energy RDD Budgets
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RDD Budgets in IEA Countries by Technology

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IEA Government Renewable Energy RDD Budgets
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Shares of Renewable Energy Technologies in Total
Energy RDD Funding, 1987 - 2002
Solar photovoltaics 2.7 Biomass 1.6 Wind
power 1.1 Geothermal 0.9 Solar heating
and cooling 0.7 Solar thermal
electric 0.5 Ocean energy 0.1 Large
hydro 0.1 Small hydro 0.04
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RDD Priorities for the Future Photovoltaics

• Cost reductions- crystalline silicon-based cells,
  thin-film approaches and alternative cell
  concepts.
• Materials that are environmentally justifiable
  with security of raw supply.
• PV power plants with optical concentration and
  stacked solar cells.
• Module encapsulation technologies for longer
  module lifetime.

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RDD Priorities for the Future Solar Thermal

• Advances in materials for parabolic troughs,
  solar towers, Fresnel-principle and parabolic
  dishes.
• Materials suitable for high temperature phase
  change for energy storage concepts.
• Use of solar thermal waste heat for seawater
  desalination.

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RDD Priorities for the FutureBiomass/Biofuels

• Biomass intensified RDD on small-scale Stirling
  CHP systems gasification and pyrolysis.
• Biofuels advanced processes for conversion of
  cellulosic crops (grass, wood) and wastes ( crop,
  forestry, municipal).

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RDD Priorities for the FutureGeothermal

• Adaptation of drilling and reservoir management
  for hydrothermal and hot dry rock resources.
• Advanced materials for heat exchangers.
• Improvements in Organic Rankine Cycle and Kalina
  Cycle systems for power generation

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RDD Priorities for the FutureDistributed
Generation and Grid Optimisation

• Electricity and heat storage systems.
• More intelligent components and buildings that
  can receive, evaluate and respond to information
  from outside.
• Unified infrastructure for technical
  communication and integrated communication
  interfaces and protocols in individual components.

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Techno-economic development

• Technology-market relationship
• Improve performance and develop new designs --gt
  RD
• Optimise size and application --gt economy of
  scale
• Open up markets --gt increase of manufacturing
  volume

• Technology-market relationship
• Improve performance and develop new designs --gt
  RD
• Optimise size and application --gt economy of
  scale
• Open up markets --gt increase of manufacturing
  volume

Improved / new products
Lower prices
Additional Customers (groups)
Additional applications
TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
MARKET DEPLOYMENT
New feedback
Higher volumes
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Costs - investment
Investment costs in Euro2000 per kW
Emerging
Mature
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Average Wind Turbine Size at Market Introduction
Sources NET Ltd., Switzerland. Raw data is from
Durstewitz (1999) and Systèmes Solaires/EurObserv
ER (2003).
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Installed Wind Capacity in IEA Countries
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Cost and Capacity Trends in Wind Power, 1980-2001
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Annual World PV Module Production and
Building-integrated PV System Costs, 1983-2003
Sources NET Ltd., Switzerland PV News,
February 2002.
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Evolution of Cell Efficiency
Sources IEA-PVPS Task 7 (2003), Education and
Training Materials for Architects, Utrecht.
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Strategies to Reduce Cost

• To reduce the overall cost of bringing renewables
  into the mainstream, focus public investment on
• Long-term RD
• Manufacturing processes
• Market learning from projects in
  high-resource locations

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Virtuous Cycle in a Supportive Policy Environment
Source NET Ltd. Switzerland based IEA / OECD
2000.
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The Future for Renewable Energy Technologies.

• Drivers will remain to be the resource base,
  technology options and costs.
• In niche markets and where resources are
  abundant, renewables are competitive, however,
  significant cost reductions are needed to bring
  renewables into the cost range of traditional
  fuels.
• If CO2 is priced, then renewables will have to
  compete with other zero emission technologies.