Il mercato del gas

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Il mercato del gas
Rome Energy Meeting 2004 Competizione globale e
mercato dellenergia

• Giacomo Luciani
• Programma Mediterraneo
• Centro Robert Schuman
• Istituto Universitario Europeo

Roma, 26 aprile 2004
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Gas Market Liberalisation

• Longer than one year has passed since the gas
  market was formally liberalised.
• Some new players have entered the field, but
  competition remains very limited .
• The national nut must be cracked open.
• The global gas environment is evolving rapidly.

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The new global gas market
NATIONAL
EUROPEAN
GLOBAL
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End introversion

• We keep discussing the Italian gas market in
  isolation from the rest of the world
• Italian demand, Italian imports, the famous
  Italian Gas Bubble
• This is dead end psychology and will lead to a
  dead end market

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Global trends

• The market for gas has been regional rather than
  global (North America, Europe, the Far East)
• There was little arbitration between regions
  (indeed, within as well, except North America)
• This is changing
• The US as the new global destination
• Qatar as the new global source

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Net Gas-Trade Flows, 2000
Bcm
Bcm
Most gas trade today is concentrated on European
East Asian (Japan, Korea and Taipei) markets
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Net Gas-Trade Flows, 2030
Bcm
The Middle East overtakes the transition
economies as the worlds biggest gas-exporting
region
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US LNG import forecast

• US gas production has recently plateaued despite
  ample, available domestic gas resources, because
  they are becoming increasingly costly to recover

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Henry Hub the long view
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Henry Hub the last year
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Henry Hub Futures
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US LNG import projects
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LNG Ministerial Summit

• Organised in December 03 by the US DOE
• Reveal innovative approaches to meeting the
  challenges facing the growth of US LNG
• Provide a perspective of expected LNG market
  growth over the next two decades
• Identify significant US market and investment
  opportunities
• Explore concerns and issues that producing
  nations need to discuss to ensure a successful
  and fast-growing US LNG market.

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Qatar is the global source

• 15 mta contract to supply US
• Bought Rovigo offshore terminal project from
  Edison, requested capacity increase from 4.8 to 8
  BCMY
• Will supply 10 BCMY to the UK (Milford Haven)
• Supplies Far East, India, France, Spain etc.

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Other Med developments

• Shah Deniz development Azerbaijan-Turkey
  pipeline
• Fast progress of Egyptian LNG (including BG to
  Italy)
• Initial Turkey-Greece link
• Algerian expansion projects
• Shell in Libya

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Italian Gas Hub or Dead End?

• If Italian import capacity remains tailored
  exactly to Italian demand, there will be no
  competition and the Italian market will remain a
  dead end.
• If import capacity significantly exceeds domestic
  demand, Italy can become a European hub of global
  significance.

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The way forward

• Shed parochial view
• Make Snam Rete Gas independent of ENI
• Streamline regulatory framework to encourage
  creation of capacity
• Move quickly to establish an active gas exchange