The climate challenge in Latin America and the Caribbean

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The climate challenge in Latin America and the
Caribbean

• OAS Permanent Council Meeting
• Wvergara_at_worldbank.org
• September 10, 2008

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We are worse off than we thought just last year
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Climate hotspots in the region
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Projected warming of the American Cordillera by
end of Century
Mountain peaks
Limited data
Limited data
South
North
Promedio de 8 simulations usando escenario A2
Source Bradley , Viuille Diaz and Vergara, 2006
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The collapse of Chacaltaya Glacier
1982
1940
1996
1998
2000
2002
2003
2005
Julio 2005
April 2008
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The loss of glacier surface is dramatic and is
accelerating
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Glacier retreat in the central range of the
Colombian Andes
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Estan cambiando las condiciones ambientales en
Los Andes? Valle de Los Frailejones. Cordillera
Central Colombia, fotos de enero 2005 y enero 2006
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Variations in surface temperature in the
Caribbean
Fuente Ashida y Curry, 2007
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Coral bleaching event of 2005
DHW () Indice termico (grados semana). Por
encima de verde claro hay mortandad masiva de
corales
? 4 DHWs ? blanqueo de corales ? 8 DHWs ?
mortalidad masiva
(Fuente A. Strong, 2006)
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Historical variation in the intensity of
hurricanes in the North Atlantic
(Webster et. Al. 2005)
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Cartagena and sea level rise
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Observed and Modelled Relationships between N-S
Atlantic SST Index and West Amazonian Rainfall
(July-October)
Observed 1901-2002 Mean
Estimated 2005 Anomaly
X
Observations 1901-2002
Model 1901-2002
Model 2003-2100
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CDD
Change (Day)
Present 1979-1988
Future 2075-2084
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Assessing the costs of climate impacts

• Costs of warming in the Andes
• Costs of hurricane intensification
• Aggregated costs in the Caribbean
• Cost associated to health impacts
• But, a full accounting of costs need to include
  the damage associated with species extinction and
  destruction of ecosystems and to social cohesion
  and communities

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The cost of glacier retreat to the power sector
in Peru
Los impactos en la region incluyen la disminucion
de regulacion de agua de ecosistemas de montana
y la intensificacion de ENSOs, que
reduce Potencialmente la oferta hidrica
Fuente Vergara et. al., EOS, 2007
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The costs of glacier retreat for water supply to
Quito
Investment needs Rios Orientales project with
and without climate change
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Projected damage ca. 20202025 in millions of
2007 U.S. dollars, 4 different scenarios
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The cost of climate impacts in the Caribbean
The estimated total annual impacts of potential
climate change on CARICOM countries circa 2080
are estimated at US 11.2 billion). As the
total GDP of all 20 CARICOM countries in US
2007 prices is US 99,395,601,590 (US99.3
billion), the estimated total annual impacts is
about 11.3 of total annual GDP of all 20
CARICOM countries.
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Incremental health costs induced by climate
change in Colombia
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CO2 emissions in 2004
Source World Development Indicators, 2007
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Climate change strategy in Latin America and the
Caribbean

• a) To support low carbon economic growth, in
  particular for the energy and transport sectors,
  which represent the bulk of emissions in the
  region and promote avoidance of deforestation
• b) To support the process of adaptation, focused
  on key vulnerabilities and
• c) To support the linkages between knowledge and
  capacity building and decision making.

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Current status of portfolio

• Work started in 1997
• Regional strategy since 2004
• 52 Kyoto protocol mitigation projects
• 9 adaptation projects
• 30 technical assistance and sector work
  activities
• Low carbon growth assessments
• Flagship study
• Amazon dieback risk analysis
• Social dimensions of climate impacts

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Jepirachi Wind farm carbon offset project 20
MW Start up 2003
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Monterrey land fill gas capture and use 14 MW
Start up 2004
Power from landfill gas to light city at night,
move metro during day.
Agreement for reforestation of denuded lands
using ejidarios Supply of renewable energy to
Ejido (solar, wind) Recycling program with
pepenadores
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Adaptation measures in coastal zones of the West
Indies (SPA,-US7 m)

• Measures addressing impacts of climate change on
  coastal areas.
• Water desalinization using wind energy for the
  Islands of Bequia and Union (St. Vincent the
  Grenadines)
• Strengthened critical coastal infrastructure in
  the Castries area (St. Lucia).
• Recovery and accretion of coral reefs (St.
  Lucia).
• Climate resilient management plan for national
  parks (Dominica)
• Approved Sept 6, 2006

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Adaptation to climate impacts in Glaciarized
basins (Bolivia, Ecuador Peru)- SCCF, 32 million

• Water supply
• Development of alternative sources
• Demand management
• Engineered storage
• Energy supply
• Diversification of supply
• Agriculture
• Alternative crops,
• Advanced irrigation systems
• Approved May 24, 2008

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Convey information on climate into the
development process

• Provide a bridge between science and development
  ensuring access to data, tools for modeling and
  planning
• Support RD and international cooperation to
  develop and transfer low carbon and adaptation
  technologies
• Amazon dieback risk analysis
• Analysis of impacts on hydrology in the Andes
• Policy options for barrier removal for renewable
  energy in Colombia
• Climate monitoring (science and local communities)

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Support for modeling of future climate and impacts

• Application of Earth Simulator (MRI) results
  (Training, data compilation and interpretation)
• Glaciarized Basins Coastal Wetlands, Coral
  Reefs, Amazon basin
• Use of ensemble results from regional models
• Development and application of new tools for
  simulation of future impacts

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Support for long-term climate observation
systems.

• Network of stations for SST and SL in the
  Caribbean
• Network of stations in glaciarized basins of
  immediate economic relevance.
• Remote sensing (ALOS) of six basins in the Andes
  (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru
• Coral bleaching observation (Jamaica)
• Paramo observation system Colombia)

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Concluding remarks

• The costs of climate impacts is already
  substantial and likely to increase, they can no
  be fully accounted for unless losses of natural
  capital are included
• There are significant opportunities to reduce
  emissions and shift future growth to low carbon
  options in Latin America and the Caribbean
• Transport and energy
• Waste management
• Avoided deforestation
• The regions first priority is adaptation
• With World Bank assistance there is now a Strong
  basis for large adaptation programs
• Need to convey information to guide policy makers