Background for climate negotiations

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Background for climate negotiations

• Rules and practices

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Content

• Science recap
• Dirty job
• One step backward
• Practicalities

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Science recap
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• .stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations
  in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
  dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
  climate system.
• Such a level should be achieved within a
  time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to
  adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that
  food production is not threatened and to enable
  economic development to proceed in a sustainable
  manner.

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• The ultimate objective of this Convention and any
  related legal instruments that the Conference of
  the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in
  accordance with the relevant provisions of the
  Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas
  concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
  would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
  interference with the climate system. Such a
  level should be achieved within a time-frame
  sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally
  to climate change, to ensure that food production
  is not threatened and to enable economic
  development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

Environment
Society
Environment
Economy
Society
Economy
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Key messages of science (AR4, Stern)

• Human-induced change is unequivocal
• Faster than expected
• Impacts generally negative
• Compounding poverty, fragility, inequality
• Warming beyond 2C danger (EU promoted)
• Prevention is cheaper than cure (globally)
• Early action costs less than inaction
• Stern 5 to 20 times less (global estimate)
• Pathway to safety will knock lt3 off global GDP
  growth to 2030
• lt0.12 per annum

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Global average temperature increases above 2C
are expected to cause significant ecological and
social disruption
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Scenario A1B
IPCC AR4 worstcase scenarios
Temperature above preindustrial
1º C
2º C
3º C
4º C
5º C
1. Weather
More intense storms, forest fires, droughts,
flooding, and heat waves
2. Water
Changes in water availability, threatening up to
a billion people
Threat to local water supply as glaciers melt
Major cities around the world threatened by
sea-level rise
3. Food
Falling yields in many developed regions
Falling crop yields in many developing regions
4. Ecosystem
Ecosystems extensively and irreversibly damaged
Many more species face extinction
5. Social
More than a billion people may have to migrate
increasing the risk of conflicts
6. GDP
Loss of up to 20 of global GDP
Loss of GDP in developing countries
SOURCE Stern Review IPCC, 4TH Assessment
Report, Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report
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Impacts evolution of knowledge (2001-2009)
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Sea level rise -projection
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Dirty job
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Projected global temperature increase
Continued global emission growth means1.1ºC -
6.4ºC global average temperature increase during
21st century
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Projected and observed fossil fuel emissions
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The Risk
Indicator Emissions Probability of ecxeeding 2ºC Probability of ecxeeding 2ºC
    Intervallum Representative case
Total CO2 emission 200049 886 Gt CO2 837 20
  1,000 Gt CO2 1042 25
  1,158 Gt CO2 1651 33
  1,437 Gt CO2 2970 50
Total Kyoto gas emission 200049 1,356 Gt CO2 eq. 837 20
  1,500 Gt CO2 eq. 1043 26
  1,678 Gt CO2 eq 1551 33
  2,000 Gt CO2 eq. 2970 50

• An emission budget of a trillion tonnes CO2
  during the first 50 years of this century.
• Of that budget, we already used up a third in
  the first nine years
• At present rates of emissions, we will use up
  the remaining two-thirds in another 20 years, by
  around 2030

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Current proposals leave us on track to 3 degrees
or more!
2050
Global GHG emissions and pathways for GHG
stability
GtCO2e per year
Low range of proposals
High range of proposals
Probability of temperature increase under 2C
Expected temperature increase
3.0C
15-30
2.0C
40-60
1.8C
70-85
Source IPCC WG3 AR4,, den Elzen, van Vuuren
Meinshausen Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve
v2.0 Catalyst analysis C-ROADS
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Delay in peaking of emissions
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The developing country financing need can be met
by a combination of direct and indirect carbon
market financing and public finance

Financing needs and sources assuming 25 caps in
developed countries, billion, annual average
2010-20 rounded to nearest 5 billion

• Could be delivered through
• Government offset purchases ( 5 billion)
  potentially increased by market interventions (
  0-5 billion)
• AAU auctioning ( 5-30 billion) - as per
  Norwegian proposal

10-15
65-100
10-20

• Could be mobilised through
• AAU offset purchases ( 5 billion)
• AAU market intervention ( 0-5 billion)
• AAU auctioning ( 5-30 billion) - as per
  Norwegian proposal

5-15
55-80
5-20
10-20
45-50
10-20
10-25
Mitigation
Adaptation
Public fiscal revenues
Total need
Internat- ional transport levies
Concess-ional debt
Public finance
ETS auction revenues
Carbon market inter-ventions
Direct carbon markets
ETS markets
Source Project Catalyst analysis
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One step backward
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Per capita fossil fuel CO2 emissions
Today 1750-2007
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Interest groups top 25 footprints
Top 25 in Population
Top 25 in GDP
(Taiwan), Netherlands, Argentina
Turkey
USA, China, EU25, Russia, India, Japan, Germany,
Brazil, UK, Italy, France, Mexico, Indonesia,
Iran, Thailand
Canada, Rep. Korea, Australia, S.
Africa, Spain, Poland
Egypt, Nigeria, Vietnam, Philippines, Bangladesh,
Ethiopia, Pakistan
Myanmar, D.R.Congo
Top 25 in CO2 emissions (incl. LUCF)
Saudi Arabia, Malaysia
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Assessing the problem

• Negotiations are driven by science
• Growing confidence in IPCC assessments
• Caveat re Summary for policy-makers
• Motivation to act is highly variable
• Low spatial correlation between cause and effect
• Large variation in capacity to cope
• Many losers - but some short-term winners

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Debate of the appropriate response

• Mitigation or Adaptation?
• Mitigation division, confrontation
• Vulnerability unifying condition
• Adaptation unifying message
• Adaptation first?

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Lost in translation?

• Responsibility
• common but differentiated responsibilities
• historical responsibility (equity)
• responsibility for the future
• national circumstances,respective capabilities
• burdens or opportunities

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Mitigation strategyoptions

• 5. Targets
• National OR sectoral
• Absolute OR intensity
• 6. Policies
• Market-based (top-down) OR
• Technology-driven (bottom-up)
• 7. Vision
• Low-hanging fruit (energy efficiency, reducing
  deforestation) OR
• Low-carbon future technologies

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Effectiveness, fairness, responsibility,
potential (Data for 2000, 6 KP gases - except
1950-2000)Source CAIT
World emissions World emissions Tons per cap (tCO2e) Tons per cap (tCO2e) 1950-2000 cumulative CO2 - world T/cap 1950-2000 cumulative CO2 - world T/cap Intensity Kt/MGDP
Excl LUCF Incl LUCF Excl LUCF Incl LUCF Energy Energy Plus LUC Excl LUCF
USA 19.2 19.2 24.3 24.3 0.70
EU 25 13.2 13.2 10.5 10.5 0.46

Annex I 48.4 39.3 14.1 13.9 73.8 456 T/cap 52.6 457 T/cap 0.64
World 5.9 7.2 122 T/cap 171 T/cap 0.80
Non-Annex I 43.7 54.2 3.3 4.9 27.1 42 T/cap 47.6 103 T/cap 0.91

China 13.6 3.9 3.9 0.98
India 4.5 1.6 1.6 0.67
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Effectiveness, fairness, responsibility,
potential (Data for 2000, 6 KP gases - except
1950-2000)Source CAIT
World emissions World emissions Tons per cap (tCO2e) Tons per cap (tCO2e) 1950-2000 cumulative CO2 - world T/cap 1950-2000 cumulative CO2 - world T/cap Intensity Kt/MGDP
Excl LUCF Incl LUCF Excl LUCF Incl LUCF Energy Energy Plus LUC Excl LUCF
USA 19.2 19.2 24.3 24.3 0.70
EU 25 13.2 13.2 10.5 10.5 0.46
Russian Fed. 5.3 5.3 13.0 13.0 1.86
Japan 3.8 3.8 10.8 10.8 0.41
Annex I 48.4 39.3 14.1 13.9 73.8 456 T/cap 52.6 457 T/cap 0.64
Non-Annex I 43.7 54.2 3.3 4.9 27.1 42 T/cap 47.6 103 T/cap 0.91
China 13.6 3.9 3.9 0.98
India 4.5 1.6 1.6 0.67
Brazil 2.7 5.3 5.5 13.4 0.76
Indonesia 1.4 7.0 2.4 14.9 0.84
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Strategic parameters

• Aim avoid dangerous interference
• Two aspects Mitigation Adaptation
• To limit climate change to safe (tolerable)
  levels
• So that the challenge of adaptation is manageable
• sustainable devt. and food security not
  impaired
• Criteria
• Inclusiveness (gt effective, fair)
• Solidarity
• Urgency .but
• Question safe, tolerable, manageable
• but for whom?

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Shared vision differentiated future

• Long-term mitigation goal (5050)
• Low-carbon future technology, markets and
  finance
• 2020 peak with current technologies (efficiency)
• New technologies market share or shared
  remedies? (IPRs)
• Market incentives vital but not enough
• Need for green FDI and more public finance
• Differentiated commitments in common framework of
  accountability

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Practicalities
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Main actors Parties and coalitions

• Parties
• Coalitions
• Non-actors
• Lobbyist
• NGOs
• Media

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Major negotiating groups

• The Association of Small Island States AOSIS
• The European Union
• Umbrella Group, which emerged at Kyoto and
  afterwards, brings the JUSSCANNZ countries except
  Switzerland together with the Russian Federation
  and Ukraine.
• JUSSCANNZ consists of Japan, the Unites States,
  Switzerland, Canada, Australia, Norway and New
  Zealand
• G-77/China
• Environmental Integrity Group Swiss, Mexico,
  Korea
• BASIC - Brazil, South Africa, India and China

The Secretariat of the UNFCCC
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Negotiating groups G-77, China

• Negotiating groups within the G77 China
• African Group which consists of 53 African
  countries, which is mainly concerned with the
  impacts of climate change
• Group of Latin America and the Caribbean which
  has 33 members and is primarily concerned with
  economic development opportunities
• Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) which
  consists of 42 members which are the especially
  vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and
• Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries
  (OPEC) the members of which have a mutual concern
  regarding the impact on the oil export revenue as
  a result of reduced use of fossil fuel.
• Least Developed Countries - countries with the
  lowest income

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Regional groups

• Africa
• Asia
• Central and Eastern Europe
• Latin America and the Caribbean States (GRULAC)
• Western Europe and Others (WEOG)

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Bodies of the Convention

• Five bodies are established by the UNFCCC
• The supreme body of the UNFCCC is the Conference
  of Parties (COP)
• which meets every year and
• it is a supreme body of the UNFCCC.
• comprised of all Parties that have ratified the
  Convention
• The COP is supported by the Secretariat,
  Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical
  Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body for
  Implementation (SBI)
• SBSTA provides scientific, technical and
  methodological advice to the COP
• SBI assist with the assessment and review of the
  implementation of the Convention
• The two bodies (SBSTA and SBI) also work on
  compliance, mechanisms and capacity building.

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Bodies of the Protocol

• Conference/Meeting of the Parties similar role
  as COP under UNFCCC
• The COP/MOP is supported by the Secretariat,
  Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical
  Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body for
  Implementation (SBI)
• SBSTA provides scientific, technical and
  methodological advice to the COP/MOP and
• the SBI assist with the assessment and review of
  the implementation of the Protocol
• JISC, CDM EB, Compliance committee

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Innovations of Bali

• AWG-LCA something new
• Extension of mandate in Copenhagen
• AWG-KP post 2012 structure of the Protocol
• Extension of mandate in Copenhagen

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Negotiating rules

• Submissions
• Interventions
• Informal meetings
• Coalition formation
• Horse trading
• Chairing

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Decision making process

• Formal rules of engagement
• Bodies, bodies and bodies
• UNFCCC
• Kyoto Protocol
• Regional representation
• Levels of negotiation
• Behind the curtains (off-record)

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Meetings the iceberg
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Practicalities

• Information sources
• Daily Programme
• ENB
• Screens
• Documents
• Deciphering abbreviations
• When to get what?
• What to read, leave aside
• Dramatic arrangements
• Food and drink, logistics

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Daily Programme

• Official meetings
• Informal groups
• Groups other than Convention and Protocol bodies
• Contact information
• Status report of consideration of agenda items
• Events

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Issues where to get the info?

• Annotated agenda
• Background information on the site of the
  Convention (www.unfccc.int)
• Document counter
• Ask the neighbour, whoever comes.
• The Screen
• Earth Negotiations Bulletin (www.iisd.ca) (Eco)
• Daily Programme

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Types of documents

• FCCC/CP or FCCC/CMP Provisional or regular
  documents/agenda
• INF.docs Information documents
• Misc.docs Miscellaneous documents
• Add. Addendum
• CRP Conference room papers
• L. Documents Limited documents
• Non-papers Informal documents
• TP Technical papers

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• Thank you!
• Jozsef Feiler
• feiler_at_obh.hu