Why did the 1993 Oslo Accords Fail?

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Why did the 1993 Oslo Accords Fail?
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Before Oslo

• End of the Cold War and collapse of the Soviet
  Union
• Unchallenged hegemony of United States
• Gulf War
• Rise of radical Islamic organizations

3
Prior Attempts at Peace

• Madrid 1991
• 3 day conference
• Early attempt at peace
• Multi-lateral
• No open PLO association
• 2 stage formula
• Symbolic

4
Israeli Motives

• Realisation of a need to change policy after 1987
  Intifada
• Remove low-cost policies following 1967 war
• Israeli identity
• Not sure about territories
• Damaging affect of occupation

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Motives continued

• Rabin
• Campaigned against Shamir and Likud
• In power ridicules Right Wing and attempts to
  remove religion and ideology from state policies

• Israel and United States
• Israel requests 10 billion in 1991
• Money conditional on non West Bank activities
• US/Israel relationship strained

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Palestinian Motives

• Return of refugees
• Recognition of a independent Palestine and return
  of Occupied land
• Removal of colonial ties
• PLO- weakened isolated
• Decline of Arabism, frustration and support for
  Iraqs invasion of Kuwait

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Oslo/ Declaration of Principles

• Not a peace treaty- mutual recognition
• Negotiations over a 5 year period
• Installation of Interim Self-Government and
  Israeli withdrawal from Gaza Jericho
• Leading to a permanent solution based on UN
  Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338
• Structure- Articles- Permanent Issues

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Reaction in Israel and Palestine

• Hard line opposition to the accords in both
  Israel and Palestine
• Both leaders accused of betrayal and
  selling-out
• 65 of Israeli citizens in favour of the accords
• Majority in favour of the accords within the
  Palestinian Executive Committee

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Failure to Address the Key Issues

• Status of Jerusalem
• Security arrangements
• Refugee situation
• Borders
• Palestinian sovereignty
• Palestinian dependence upon the Israeli economy

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Netanyahus Animosity Towards Peace

• Initial Progress and Oslo II
• Rabin assassinated by Israeli extremist in
  November 1995
• Netanyahu becomes Israeli leader in May 1996 and
  had little desire for peace
• Netanyahu intent to block all progress of peace
• United States pressure on Israel to concede
  territory to the Palestinians led to the Hebron
  Protocol and the Wye River Memorandum

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Baraks Inability to Generate Peace

• Ehud Barak became Israeli leader in May 1999 and
  this brought some renewed hope for peace
• Failure of the Camp David Summit
• Peace was not forthcoming

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The Palestinian Contribution

• Palestinians distrust of the Oslo accords
• It was Arafat who lacked a clear
• strategy and his political management
• has been marked by a high degree of
• improvisation and short termism
• (Sayigh 2001)
• Palestinian militants bombing Israel
• Failures of the PNA
• Frequent resort to violence

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The Role of the United States

• Took an active role in promoting peace
• Manipulated by both the Israelis and Palestinians
• Palestinians blamed for the collapse of the 2000
  Camp David Summit, however this undermined the
  United States neutrality

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Conclusion

• The Oslo accords provided the opportunity to make
  a real difference and generate peace in a bitter
  and protracted conflict
• There are a number of reasons why the accords
  collapsed including
• The failure to fully address many of the core
  issues, the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin
  derailing the peace process, Netanyahus refusal
  to support the accords, Israel continuing its
  policy of land confiscation and building new
  Jewish settlements in the occupied territories,
  and as such political violence has remained
  widespread and culminated in a full scale
  Palestinian uprising known as the Al-Aqsa
  intifada