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BQuelle Michael Düren, Uni Gießen .
Energieseminar SS 2007
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BQuelle Michael Düren, Uni Gießen .
Energieseminar SS 2007
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Neueste Version
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0. The process and the people 1. Emission of
GHG 1970 -2004 AD 2. Future Emissions and
how to reduce them What is the potential
for reducing emissions? How to reduce
emissions? Changes in Lifestyle 3. What
are the costs What are the costs in 2030?
There are also co-benefits of mitigation
4. Long-term mitigation and Stabilization
levels Long-term mitigation (after 2030)
Stabilization and global mean
temperatures 5. Policies to realize mitigation
of climate change 6. Sustainable development
climate change mitigation
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0.
from
Danke !
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1.
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CO2 is the largest contributor
Fig.SPM 1
Quelle http//www.ipcc.ch/ AR4wg3 SPM Fig.1

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Notes 1. Other N2O includes industrial
processes, deforestation/savannah burning,
waste water and waste incineration. 2. Other
is CH4 from industrial processes and savannah
burning. 3. CO2 emissions from decay
(decomposition) of above ground biomass
that remains after logging and deforestation
and CO2 from peat fires and decay of drained
peat soils. 4. As well as traditional biomass
use at 10 of total, assuming 90 is

from sustainable
biomass production. Corrected for 10 carbon
of biomass that is assumed to remain as charcoal
after combustion. 5. For large-scale forest and
scrubland biomass burning averaged data for
1997-2002 based on Global Fire Emissions
Data base satellite data. 6. Cement production
and natural gas flaring. 7. Fossil fuel use
includes emissions from feedstocks.
Notes to Fig.SPM 1
Quelle http//www.ipcc.ch AR4-wg3 _SPM p.6
, Notes to Fig. SPM1
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2. Future Emissions and how to reduce them
ltlt 2030 AD gtgt
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Mitigation in the short and medium term (until
2030)
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Concept of Mitigation Potential
0. The concept of mitigation potential has been
developed to assess the scale of GHG
reductions that could be made, relative to
emission baselines, for a
given level of carbon price (expressed in cost
per unit of CO2equ emissions avoided or reduced).
Mitigation potential is further differentiated
in terms of
market potential and economic
potential. 1. Market potential is the
mitigation potential
based on private costs and private discount
rates, which might be expected to occur under
forecast market conditions,
including policies and
measures currently in place,
noting that barriers
limit actual uptake. 2. Economic potential
is the mitigation potential,
which takes into account social costs and
benefits and social discount rates assuming
that market efficiency is improved by
policies and measures and barriers
are removed.
Quelle http//www.ipcc.ch AR4-wg3 _SPM p.9
, Box SPM2,
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Both bottom-up and top-down Studies
indicate that there is substantial
economic potential for the mitigation of
global GHG emissions over the coming decades,
that could offset the projected
growth of global emissions
or reduce emissions below current
levels
Quelle http//www.ipcc.ch/WG3_press_presentation.
pdf and SPM Statement 5, p.10
Table SPM 1 Bottom up Studies
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Definitionen aus Box SPM 2 Bottom-up studies are
based on assessment of mitigation options,
emphasizing specific technologies and
regulations. They are typically sectoral studies
taking the macro-economy as unchanged. Sector
estimates have been aggregated, as in the TAR, to
provide an estimate of global mitigation
potential for this assessment. Top-down studies
assess the economy-wide potential of mitigation
options. They use globally consistent frameworks
and aggregated information about mitigation
options and capture macro-economic and market
feedbacks.
Quelle http//www.ipcc.ch AR4-wg3 _SPM p.9
, Box SPM2,
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AR4-wg3 _SPM p.12
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only World
Based on end-use allocation
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Fig. SPM 6 from bottom up stufies
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in insulation and appliances.
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Wörtlich zitiert
Renewable energy generally has a positive effect
on energy security, employment and on air
quality. Given costs relative to other supply
options, renewable electricity, which accounted
for 18 of the electricity supply in 2005, can
have a 30-35 share of the total electricity
supply supply in 2030 at carbon prices up to 50
US/tCO2-eq
Nuclear power Given costs relative to other
supply options, nuclear power, which accounted
for 16 of the electricity supply in 2005, can
have an 18 share of the total electricity supply
in 2030 at carbon prices up to 50 US/tCO2-eq,
but safety, weapons proliferation and waste
remain as constraints.
AR4wg3 _ SPM p.1718
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3. Costs
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Definitionen (p.17 of SPM) 24 Spill over effects
of mitigation in a cross-sectoral perspective are
the effects of mitigation policies and measures
in one country or group of countries on sectors
in other countries. 25 Carbon leakage is
defined as the increase in CO2 emissions outside
the countries taking domestic mitigation action
divided by the reduction in the emissions of
these countries.
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4. Mitigation and Stabilisation Levels
Statement 18
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AR4wg3 _ SPM , Statement 18 p.21
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2050 -2000 AD
at equilibrium
AR4wg3 _ SPM , Table SPM5 selection p.22
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Emission pathways of mitigation scenario
Example category B
Pathway is for CO2 emissions only.
Pink shaded areas give the CO2 emissions for the
post-TAR emissions scenarios. Green shaded areas
depict the range of more than 80 TAR
stabilization scenarios.
AR4wg3 _ SPM , Fig SPM7 selection p.23
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Figure SPM 7 Emissions pathways of mitigation
scenarios for alternative categories of
5 stabilization levels (Category I to VI as
defined in the box in each panel). The pathways
are for CO2 emissions only. Pink shaded (dark)
areas give the CO2 emissions for the
post-TAR emissions scenarios. Green shaded
(light) areas depict the range of more than 80
TAR stabilization scenarios. Base year
emissions may differ between models due to
differences in sector and industry coverage. To
reach the lower stabilization levels some
scenarios deploy removal of CO2 from the
atmosphere (negative emissions) using
technologies such as biomass energy production
utilizing carbon capture and storage. Figure
3.17
AR4wg3 _ SPM , Fig SPM7 Bildunterschrift p.23
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Categories A1,D,E
AR4wg3 _ SPM , Figure SPM8 p.24
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Categories A1,D,E
Erläuterung
AR4wg3 _ SPM , Figure SPM8 p.24
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Statement 19
Technologie steht bereit, allerdings fehlen
Anreize
Statement 19 The range of stabilization levels
assessed can be achieved by
deployment of a portfolio of technologies
that are currently available
and those that are expected to be
commercialised in coming decades. This assumes
that appropriate and effective incentives are in
place for development, acquisition,
deployment and diffusion of technologies
and for addressing related barriers (high
agreement, much evidence).
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Statement 20
Macro-economic Costs in 2050
In 2050 global average macro-economic costs
for multi-gas mitigation towards
stabilization between 710 and 445 ppm CO2-eq,
are in the range between a 1 gain to a
5.5 decrease of global GDP

(see Table SPM.6). For
specific countries and sectors,
costs vary considerably
from the global average.
AR4wg3 _ SPM , Statement 20 p.26
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AR4wg3 _ SPM ,Table SPM 6 p.26
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Statement 21
21. Decision-making about the
appropriate level of global mitigation over time
involves an iterative risk management
process
that includes mitigation and adaptation,
taking into account actual and avoided CC
damages,
cobenefits,
sustainability,
equity, and
attitudes to risk. Choices about the scale and
timing of GHG mitigation involve balancing
the economic costs of more
rapid emission reductions now against
the corresponding medium-term and
long-term climate risks of delay high
agreement, much evidence.
Das wussten schon die alten Römer Quidquid
agis, prudenter agas et
respice finem.
In dieser Abstraktheit überall vollste
Zustimmung. (eigentlich sogar ziemlich trivial)
AR4wg3 _ SPM , Statement 21 p.26
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Statement 22
5.Policies
AR4wg3 _ SPM , Statement 22 p.27
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Statement 23
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Reste
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alt
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2. Future Emissions and how to reduce them
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only World
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5.Policies
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6.
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