MAIRS

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MAIRS MONSOON ASIA INTEGRATED REGIONAL STUDIES
J Srinivasan NC-INDIA
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• Rationale
• Region as an entity
• Quantitative understanding of global-regional
  linkages

Key Questions

• Consequences for the region
• Land Transformation
• Regional Atmospheric composition
• Local eco-system structure and functioning
• Marine and coastal ecosystems
• Vulnerability assessment (food, water health)
• Effects of direct/indirect feedbacks on
  biosphere/sustainability of the region

• What region will be like in 50 years?
• Land use cover change/intensification
• Urbanization
• Industrial practices
• Energy production
• Dam construction
• Consequences for the Earth System
• Biogeochemical cycles
• Physical climate system
• Hydrological cycle

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Root drivers (population, consumption)
Aerosols
Upstream linkages, or drivers
Land use land cover
GHG emissions
Development pathways
Global climate
Monsoon system
Water
Downstream linkages or effects
Hazards
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Human dimensions linkages

• Monsoon variability has significant consequences
  for water resources, agriculture and health
  outcomes
• Extent and dynamics of aerosols and land use
  change determined by human activities, economic
  transitions and development pathways
• Substantive work needed to identify drivers,
  control points and policy levers

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Examples of research questions

• What is the relationship between emissions of
  aerosols and GHG emissions?
• Will GHG and aerosol emissions increase at the
  same rate?
• Will decoupling happen, and if so, when, and
  under what conditions?
• How do particular economic, environmental, social
  and cultural factors in Monsoon Asia combine to
  affect development choices, especially those
  involving land use and energy?
• Can rapid transitions offer points of
  intervention and windows of opportunity for
  altering development pathways?
• How will GHG emissions and regional aerosol
  emissions and land use / land cover affect the
  monsoon system and its variability?
• What are the impacts of monsoon variability on
  climates in other parts of the world?

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Initial Planning Workshop 22-24 March 2003, SEA
START RC, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok

• Identified ongoing and proposed regional
  activities that might be construed as integrated
  regional studies
• Considered various sub-regional activities that
  could form the basis for sub-regional integrated
  regional studies
• Considered various frameworks for such regional
  studies
• Suggested Transitional Project Steering Group
• Identified as a major theme Human well-being,
  vulnerability and sustainability in a rapidly
  changing region

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NEXT STEPS

• Transitional Steering Group
• Project Office
• Sub-regional Workshops

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NEXT STEPS
Project Office

• Place Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Sponsored by CAS, Ministry of Science
  Technology (China), and National Science
  Foundation of China
• Funding support to cover
• Operations
• Staff
• Search for a Project Officer

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Regional Workshops and Rapid Assessment Projects
NEXT STEPS

• East Asia (late 2003/early 2004)
• Southeast Asia (2004)
• South Asia (2004)

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South Asia component of the IRS of Monsoon Asia
project

• Focus on the summer monsoon and
• Regional perturbations of the monsoon system by
• Aerosols
• Land-use / land cover change
• Consequences of monsoon variability
  (interseasonal, intraseasonal) for key elements
• Emphasis on process understanding
• Socio-economic processes
• Natural processes

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Next steps

• Small scoping / planning meeting to define a
  research agenda and project scope
• Commission state-of-science white papers
• Launch workshop
• Consolidate papers into book
• Project development and identification of funding
  sources, proposal writing
• Anticipate mix of activities modeling,
  observational, process studies

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East Asia Sub-regional Integrated Assessment
Report- A Draft Outline -
NEXT STEPS
Prepared by FU Congbin and colleagues

• Unique characteristic of the region
• Critical Issues for the Sustainable Development
  of the Region
• Regional response and adaptation to global
  warming
• High frequency of climate-related disasters
• Pollution of atmosphere, ocean, water, soil and
  biota in the region, and their impacts on climate
  and human health
• Shortage of water resources, and aridification