Agenda December 6, 2005

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Agenda December 6, 2005

• 9.00 Opening, update
• 9.20 Update modeling effort
• 10.00 Plenary on Demand Side issues
• 10.30 Coffee break
• 10.45 Small groups on designing scenarios
• 11.30 Small group reporting identify the gap in
  consensus
• 11.45 - 12.00 Closing

2
Mediated Modeling process overview
1. Introduction, Framing Questions 2. Tour of the
big picture 3. Focus on Supply and Demand,
Investment Decision-Making
4. Supply and Customer Resources
2/06 Environmental and health issues 2/06 4/06
Socio-economic issues 5/06 Regulations, Markets,
Policy 6/06 Running Scenarios
9/06 Drawing Conclusions 10/06 Presentations
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Modeling Program
System Precision
Management level
Research level
Scoping level
Acceptance
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This is NOT an optimization model.This is a
system dynamics model.
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The shortest distance between people is a story
Model building is story building A good story
needs
Pieces (who)
Patterns (what, when, where)
Processes (why and how)
Understanding the interplay of extremes and
driving factors
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Until next workshop

• Prepare environmental and health issues
• Post informational resources What would
  participants want others to know?
• Use message board to (1) Follow up on details
  from the meeting (2) Discuss ways to reflect
  issues in the model (3) Discuss useful data and
  terminology
• Ad hoc meetings

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Phase 2 - Six workshops

• Workshop format sample
• 9 AM - 12.15 Model update, longer plenary and
  processing.
• 12.15 - 1.30 Lunch
• 1.30 - 3 PM More small group sessions and time
  to review data and assumptions.
• 3.15 - 4 PM Optional ad hoc groups model
  building