PS 142 War and Peace

1
PS 142War and Peace

• Lecture 3
• System Structure and War

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What is the International System?

• Set of actors that are
• Self-Contained
• Interactive
• Interdependent
• Most theories focus on states as the actors in
  the system
• Increasing emphasis on non-state actors
• IOs, NGOs, transnational groups

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What is System Structure?

• Two (relatively) unchanging aspects of structure
• Anarchy is the ordering principal
• States are the central actors
• Theories of system structure and war largely
  ignore non-state actors
• Three variable aspects of structure

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What is System Structure?

• Polarity
• Number of major actors in the system
• Capability concentration
• Distribution of power across major actors
• Alliance Tightness
• Reinforcing or cross-cutting ties

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What is Polarity?

• Number of Great Power states in the system
• Bipolar US USSR in Cold War
• Multi-polar UK, Germany, France, Japan, Italy,
  US, USSR in 1930s
• Today uni-polar?
• Number of Great Power alliances groups in the
  system
• Bipolar vs. multi-polar

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Examples of PolarityPre-WWI Europe

• May differ for states alliances
• Pre-WWI multi-polar in terms of states

UK
Germany
France
Austria-Hungary
Russia
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Examples of PolarityPre-WWI Europe

• But largely bipolar in terms of alliances
• Neither is wrong capture different parts of
  system

UK
Germany
France
Austria-Hungary
Russia
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What is the Concentration of Capabilities?

• Distribution of power across Great Power states
  in the system
• Even vs. Uneven
• Distribution of power across Major Power
  alliances groups
• Capability aggregation model

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The Concentration of Capabilities

• Concentration may vary when polarity is constant
• Concentration is even across states, but uneven
  across alliances

UK 20
Germany 20
France 20
Austria-Hungary 20
Russia 20
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The Concentration of Capabilities

• Now it is even is even across alliances, but
  uneven across states

UK 30
Germany 45
France 10
Austria-Hungary 5
Russia 10
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Alliance Tightness

• Ties reinforcing or cross-cutting
• NATO WTO
• Pre-WWI
• Here alliances are tight

UK
Germany
France
Austria-Hungary
Russia
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Alliance Tightness

• No change in polarity but alliances are looser

UK
Germany
France
Austria-Hungary
Russia
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How does System Structure cause war?

• Leaders initiate wars, not the system
• Any systemic theory of war must explain how
  system alters leader calculations
• Key concept Systemic Uncertainty
• Who will oppose whom with how much capability?

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How Does System Structure Create Systemic
Uncertainty

• Polarity many actors high uncertainty
• Need many predictions
• Concentration of Capabilities even distribution
  high uncertainty
• More predictions are relevant
• Tightness Loose alliances high uncertainty
• More difficult to predict behavior based on
  alliances

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How Does Systemic Uncertainty Relate to War?

• Waltz Uncertainty causes errors
• Buckpassing
• Entrapment
• War is a result of reckless errors
• Certainty allows states to avoid war

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How Does Systemic Uncertainty Relate War?

• Singer Deutsch Uncertainty creates caution
• War is a result of confidence in victory
• Fear of possible defeat deters war

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How Does Systemic Uncertainty Cause War?

• What does the evidence show?
• Very mixed results
• Data suggest no relationship
• Why?
• Is systemic theory a waste of time?

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The Contingent Effects of Systemic Uncertainty

• Key to argument is the impact of risk
• Individuals respond to risk in different ways
• Risk-Propensity
• Risk Acceptance
• Risk Aversion
• Effect of systemic uncertainty depends on risk
  propensity of leaders

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The Contingent Effects of Systemic Uncertainty

• For risk-acceptant leaders Waltz should be
  right
• For risk-averse leaders Singer Deutsch should
  be right
• Huth, Bennett Gelpi (1992) show this effect

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What States Are Risk Takers?

• States facing problems
• Poor economy
• Declining power
• Internal unrest
• Non-democracies
• Leaders personalities
• Driven to take risks?