AFET YNETIMI

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Hazard Risk Management in TURKEY Achievements
Challenges Ahead
Murat Sungur BURSA Director Prime
Ministry-PIU October 26, 2004
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What is a natural disaster?

• is a geophysical, hydrological or atmospheric
  event
• impacts vulnerable communities or geographical
  areas,
• causes substantial damage, disruption and
  casualties
• leaves the affected communities unable to
  function normally.

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TURKEY is prone to mainly three types of natural
disasters.

• One of the most seismically active region in the
  world
• 70 of the population lives in areas highly
  vulnerable to earhtquakes.
• 66 of the country is located on active fault
  zones.
• 75 of damaged buildings and 64 of total
  disaster losses in the last century are due to
  earthquakes
• Vulnerable to floods
• Mostly in coastal plains and exacerbated by
  deforestation, erosion and ignorant development.
• 15 of total disaster losses are due to floods.
• Annual average losses exceed 100 million US
• Landslides
• 25 of country area is exposed to landslide
  hazard.
• 11 of total population is located in landslide
  areas.
• 16 of total disaster losses are due to
  landslides.

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• EARTHQUAKE TOLL IN TURKEY
• Avarege annual direct economic costs exceeded
• 1 billion US in the last decade.
• Average annual number of earthquakes equal or
  greater than a magnitude of 5.5 on the Richter
  scale 0.76
• (6th in the world)
• Number of people killed per year due to
  earthquakes 950
• (3rd in the world)
• Average number of people killed per million
  inhabitants 15.58 (4th in the world)
• Average physical exposure per year 2 745 757
  people (8th in the world)
• Killed per million exposed relative
  vulnerability 346 people (4th in the world)

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In the last decade Turkey faced heavy natural
disasters

• Erzincan Earthquake, 1992
• Flood in Black Sea Region, 1998
• Adana-Ceyhan Earthquake, 1998
• Marmara Earthquake, 1999

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Erzincan Earthquake, 6.8 Richter , 1992

• 500 people died, 700 were injured
• 6500 houses were destroyed.
• direct loss is about 650 million US

Flood in Black Sea Region, 1998

• area of 37.000 km2 with a population of 2.2
  million suffered
• the worst flood of the last century
• direct loss is about 500 million US

Adana-Ceyhan Earthquake, 6.3 Richter, 1998

• 150 people died and 1000 injured
• 74.300 houses collapsed, heavily or lightly
  damaged.
• direct loss is about 1 billion US

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1999 Marmara Earthquake, 7.4 Richter

• 18000 lives lost
• 113.000 housing units and business premises were
  completely destroyed, 264.000 damaged to varying
  degrees
• Up to 600.000 people were forced to leave their
  homes.
• 10-15 billion US direct cost

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Lessons learned from Marmara Earthquake

• Communication
• Communication failed
• Telephone lines were out of order in first 48
  hours
• Mobiles did not function

• First Aid Rescue
• Lack of organization and coordination in search
  rescue activities
• Caotic situation
• Bureaucracy inhibiting efficiency and
  effectiveness
• Insufficient logistic supports
• Voluntary efforts were not trained and organised

• Losses / Problems
• Public buildings and infrastructure seriously
  damaged
• Sub-standard buildings and infrastructure
• Hazard ignorant development
• Lack of code enforcement
• Improper inspection during construction
• Corrupted permitting and licensing

• Serious Resource Gap
• 10-15 billion as direct cost
• 5-7 of Turkeys GNP

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Distribution of Government Expenditures After
1999 Marmara Earthquake
  Source OECD and Ministry of Finance of TURKEY
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Resource Gap

• World Bank has been a leading lending institution
  together with European Investment Bank after
  major natural disasters in the last decade
• ERZINCAN Earthquake Rehabilitation and
  Reconstruction Project (ERRP)
• Turkey Emergency Flood and Earthquake Recovery
  Project (TEFER)
• Marmara Earthquake Emergency Reconstruction
  Project (MEER)

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Cost / Benefit Analysis

• Cost of structural system is around 35 of total
  construction.
• Spending an additional 15 in the structural
  system should save the buildings from collapsing.
  Accordingly

• For every additional 1 spent during
  construction, savings are up to 40
• For every 1 spent for retrofitting, savings
  are up to 8

No rational business-mind can resist such a high
rate of return
What about BUREAUCRACY??? We have the luxury of
not having business, mind But we have the
RESPONSIBILITY
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Cost / Benefit Analysis
Saving LIVES ???

• During Marmara Earthquake
• 18.000 people lost their lives.
• There were 70.000 casualties.
• 600.000 people were forced to live their homes

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Policy Shift in TURKEY

• STRATEGIC
• Choice
• Proactive
• Mitigation
• Anticipate and prevent
• Ex-ante
• Risk management
• Comprehensive approach
• Sustainable development

• CONVENTIONAL
• Fate
• Reactive
• Recovery
• Wait and see
• Ex-post
• Crisis management
• Ad-hoc efforts
• Development at risk

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Developments in Turkey

• Five Year Development Plan of TURKEY for the
  period 2001-2005 envisages
• Minimization of hazard risks
• Establishment of appropriate legal, social,
  institutional and technical structures with
  effective measures for disaster mitigation
• Turkish Catastrophic Insurance Pool established
  after 1999 Marmara Earthquake to enable
  catastrophic risk transfer and risk financing
  (nearly 2 million housing units insured)
• Local Government and Public Sector Reforms
  support serious decentralization of central
  governments functions and responsibilities
  including disaster management.
• Sensitivity of citizens and NGOs for disaster
  mitigation is increasing
• Disaster mitigation is a new challenge for
  municipalities
• Candidates in the last municipal elections,
  competed with their disaster mitigation projects
  as part of their election campaigns.

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Istanbul

• Comparable seismic risk degree with San
  Francisco, Los Angeles and Tokyo cities
• Probability of occurence of a large earthquake
  in next 30 years is greater than 50.
• Probability of occurence of a large earthquake
  in next 10 years is greater than 20.
• Impacts after a probable 7.5 Richter scale
  earthquake in Istanbul
• Approximately 70.000 dead people,120.000
  injured-heavily injured people, 400.000 light
  injured people
• direct economic loss 30 billion US

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Istanbul Earthquake Master Plan
a road map....
Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality
Governorate
Objective Reducing the effects of probable
Istanbul Earthquake
District Municipalities
Institutions
Enterprises
NGOs
a social contract....
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District Municipalities

• Bakirköy Municipality
• Vulnerability Assessment of 10.362 buildings
• 3.500 buildings are high to very high risk
• Feasibility study for retrofitting of 350
  residential buildings in Bakirköy is near to
  start.

• Zeytinburnu Municipality
• Vulnerability Assessment of 15.000 buildings
  have been completed
• Framework for urban regeneration project of
  Zeytinburnu has been prepared. Operational models
  are under discussion.

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Main Challenges Ahead

• Regulatory Issues
• Development Law
• Condominium Law
• Urban Regeneration Law
• Building Code
• Building Inspection Law
• Retrofitting Regulation
• Soil Improvement Regulation

• Organizational Issues
• Finalizing reorganization of disaster management
  functions
• Between Prime Ministry / Ministries
• At central / local government levels

• Technical Studies
• Microzonation
• Cadastre Renovation
• Risk Identification Assessment
• Vulnerability Assessment

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Main Challenges Ahead

• Enforcement and Implementation
• Effective code enforcement
• Risk financing
• Enlarging the risk insurance base
• Capacity Building in all organizations
• Awareness raising
• Training at all levels
• Public private partnerships
• Citizen participation
• Urban regeneration
• Implementing risk mitigation measures and
  retrofitting of existing building stock
• Sine-qua-nons
• Technically feasible
• financially affordable
• economically justifiable
• socially acceptable

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Who has the POWER?
The POWER is in the hands of decision makers and
practitioners

• If we are committed and engage our societies to
  take preparedness and mitigation measures at the
  adequate level,
• many potential disasters will turn to be natural
  events.

THE POWER IS IN YOU!!!
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Invitation for Cooperation
TRADITIONAL
NEW VISION

• Humanitarian
• Search and Rescue
• Reactive
• Ex-post
• Recovery
• Wait for the incident
• Doctors,
• nurses
• Donor meetings
• We will

• Humanitarian
• Search and Rescue
• Proactive
• Ex-ante
• Mitigation
• Continuous
• Development planners, politicians, engineers,
  doctors, decision makers etc.
• Risk management workshops
• Let us

TURKEY welcomes cooperation with all countries
under this new vision and invites you all to
contribute to this process. RSVP
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NEW VISION Cooperation
TRADITIONAL Cooperation
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Let us all be pro-active, strategic,
comprehensive try to prevent or mitigate
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7.5 Richter scale pleasure...
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Thank you...