Pakistan: A Country on the Brink

1
Pakistan A Country on the Brink

• IAFS 1000

2
Pakistans Creation

• Originally part of British India. The British
  initially widened the divide between the Muslims
  Hindus in a strategy to maintain control.
• There were ethnic, political religious disputes
  between the Muslims Hindus in British India.
• Pakistan was formed in 1947 out of partition from
  British controlled India.
• During the split from India, there was a mass
  migration of over 15 Million. The Muslims were
  going to Pakistan as the Hindus were leaving for
  India.
• The creation of Pakistan was tumultuous,
  resulting in chaos, riots, deaths crimes
  against humanity. This deepened the rift between
  Muslims and Hindus.

3
Partition

• Partition left both India Pakistan devastated
  socially economically.
• Some of the atrocities committed between the
  Muslims Hindus were widespread rape, pillaging
  murder, bordering on genocide.
• This included the bombing of trains of immigrants
  by Hindus and even filling trains full of the
  dismembered bodies sending them across the
  border into Pakistan.

4
The Early Years

• After Partition there was Pakistan East
  Pakistan on the other side of India.
• East Pakistan rebelled and succeeded from
  Pakistan in the 1971 India/Pakistan was to become
  Bangladesh.
• Pakistan itself is divided into four main areas
  Balochistan, North-West Frontier Province (NWFP),
  Punjab, Sindh.
• Another province, Kashmir, is still under dispute
  with India has been the cause of war between
  the countries in 1947, 1965, 1971 1999.

5
Jammu and Kashmir

• Dispute between Pakistan India over the
  territory of Jammu and Kashmir goes back to the
  partition of 1947.
• Initially, the princely state of Kashmir was to
  join with Pakistan, but the Hindu Maharaja, Hari
  Singh, refused. Pakistan tried to scare him with
  military force.
• In response, Singh signed an article of
  accession, Kashmir would join India if India
  helped repel Pakistani forces.
• Territory has been disputed ever since.

6
Pakistan and India

• India Pakistan have been archrivals since the
  partition and disputes over Kashmir have
  propagated this.
• They compete politically, economically and
  militarily.
• They are both nuclear nations with limited first
  strike ability.
• Given the mutual hatred and history of war
  between these two nations and Indias rising
  prosperity, there is a high level of instability
  in the region.

7
Pakistan Today

• Although the 4 provinces in Pakistan are
  officially united, each one has its individual
  culture and identity.
• Some even have strong separatist sentiments such
  as the NWFP which harbors Al Qaeda.

8
Politics

• Pakistan goes back and forth from being a
  democracy and being ruled by a military dictator
  after a coup.
• Pakistani politics have a tradition of being
  underhanded, violent, and volatile.

9
History of Pakistans Political Leaders

• 1948 Muhammad Ali Jinnah, founding father of
  Pakistan, dies
• 1951 Jinnahs successor, Liaquat Ali Khan is
  assassinated.
• 1956 Constitution proclaims Pakistan as Islamic
  Republic.
• 1958 General Ayyub Khan becomes president.
• 1969 General Yahya Khan takes over.
• 1973 Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto (Benazirs father)
  becomes PM.
• 1979 General Zia ul-Haq overthrows and hangs
  Bhutto in a military coup becomes president.
  Benazir goes into exile, returns in 1986.
• 1988 Gen. Zia dies in mysterious plane crash.
  Bhuttos Pakistans Peoples Party wins election
  she becomes PM.
• 1990 Benazir Bhutto is dismissed as PM on
  charges of incompetence corruption.

10
History of Pakistans Leaders Continued

• 1991 PM Nawaz Sharif begins economic
  liberalization.
• 1993 PM Sharif resigns under pressure from
  military. General election brings Bhutto back to
  power.
• 1996 President Leghari dismisses Bhuttos
  government amid corruption allegations.
• Nawaz Sharif returns as PM after his Pakistan
  Muslim League wins elections.
• 1999 Bhutto and her husband are convicted of
  corruption and sentenced. Benazir flees to exile.
  Later that year Sharif is overthrown by General
  Pervez Musharraf in a military coup.
• 2002 Musharraf grants himself new powers
  including the right to dismiss parliament.
• 2007 Bhuttos and Sharifs parties protest
  Musharraf. Musharraf takes over media and
  communication networks.

11
Benazir Bhutto's Timeline
12
The Musharraf Era

• Musharraf came to power in 1999 after a military
  coup and was self appointed as president in 2001.
• Musharraf has enjoyed western support due to his
  announced intentions in 2002 to combat extremists
  in Pakistan.
• However the legitimacy of his rule is dubious. In
  2007 he suspended the constitution and jailed
  several supreme court members right before they
  were about to evaluate the constitutional
  validity of his 2007 election.
• During Musharrafs time Pakistan enjoyed
  impressive economic performance.
• However, Musharrafs approval rating has
  plummeted to a low of 15.

13
Pakistan, The U.S. and the War on Terror

• The US has supported Pakistan and Musharraf ever
  since he pledged to be an ally to the US in the
  war on terror.
• The US has placed its faith in Musharraf by
  appropriating over 10B in foreign aid since
  9/11.
• This is in stark contrast to the sanctions the US
  had against Pakistan before Musharraf pledged his
  support.
• However, the question now is whether or not the
  US should continue to support Musharraf since he
  is now widely unpopular.

14
Should the US continue to support Musharraf?

• YES The US is familiar with him, he offers
  continuity. A different leader could be worse
  politically. He is more moderate than Sharif and
  the PPP.
• NO The aid given him has done little. He is
  undemocratic and vastly unpopular. By continuing
  to support him the US loses the credit it has
  gained in the Middle East by supporting an
  Islamic nation.

15
Pakistans Political Parties

• PML (Q) - Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-I-Azam)
• Kings Party - staunch supporters of Musharraf,
  overall very close to military
• Very Conservative, right wing
• PML (N) - Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)
• Split from PML (Q) after 1999 coup Nawaz Sharif
  was exiled
• Led by Sharif, centered in Punjab

16

• PPP - Pakistan Peoples Party
• Led by Benazir Bhutto until assassination
• Now headed by Asif Zardari Bilawal Bhutto
  Zardari
• Centered in Sindh, also strong in Punjab
• Socialist, democracy advocates
• MMA - Majlis-i-Amal
• Alliance of 6 major religious parties
• Formed after Musharraf joined War on Terror
• Controlled Baluchistan NWFP fm 02-08
• Supportive of a theocracy

17

• ANP - Awami National Party
• Secular, nationalistic Pashtuns
• Centered in NWFP
• Close ties to Afghanistans president Hamid
  Karzai
• Want to reform tribal political systems
• MQM - Muttahida Quami Movement
• Based in Sindh
• Member of pro-Musharraf coalition
• Considered militant and unreliable

18
Election Outlook

• Elections scheduled for Jan. 8th
• Bhutto assassinated Dec. 27th
• Two alternative versions to assassination
• Election Delayed
• PPP and PML (N) wanted elections held as planned
• Electoral Commission decides to push election
  back to Feb. 18th
• Supposedly independent, likely controlled by
  Musharraf

19
Army withdrawal from politics

• Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani now in charge
• Kiyani ordered withdrawal from politics
• 300 army officers told to leave their ministerial
  positions
• Kiyani ordered soldiers, officers not to take
  sides in election
• U.S. has demanded military stay out of political
  affairs, threatening to slow aid if it doesnt
  (5.4 bil to fight militants so far)

20
February 2008 Election Results

• 268 total seats
• PML (Q) - 42
• PPP - 113
• PML (N) - 85
• MMA - 3
• ANP - 10
• MQM - 19

21
Muree Declaration

• PPP and PML (N) make deal to share power in
  Punjab, federal government
• PPP accepts Sharifs demands to restore 60 sacked
  judges
• PML (N) drops campaign pledges to rewrite
  constitution, impeach Musharraf

22
Secularism in NWFP

• After Feb. elections, ANP forms coalition with
  PPP to control NWFP
• MMAs mullahs ousted from power
• Hopefully close ties to Hamid Karzai will lead to
  greater border cooperation
• Hoping to reform politics in region to reduce
  mullahs control

23
What has new coalition done ?

• Freed all 60 sacked judges
• Pledged to reinstate them, but no date set
• Appointed Raza Gillana as PM
• PPP loyalist, likely to pass off post to Zardari
  after by-elections
• Zardari not completely alienating Musharraf
• Brought MQM into coalition in Sindh

24
The Future in Pakistan

• Pakistan will crumble into 4 states
• Islamists like Taliban leader Meshud will turn
  Pakistan into an Iran-like theocracy
• Pakistans nuclear weapons will fall into the
  hands of Islamists or worseterrorists.
• Can the army prevent these doomsday scenarios or
  will the army succumb to Islamist elements as
  well?