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Istituto di Metodologie di Analisi Ambientale CNR
- Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche C.da S.Loja,
Zona Industriale, I-85050 Tito Scalo (PZ), Italia
Approaching the Kyoto targets key strategies for
local communities.
Monica Salvia, C. Cosmi, F. Pietrapertosa, V.
Cuomo, M. Macchiato salvia_at_imaa.cnr.it
Annual Meeting of the International Energy
Workshop jointly organized by EMF/IEA/IIASA at
the Conference Center Laxenburg 25 June 2003
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Summary
Context of the research
Methodology
Case study
Results
Conclusions and further developments
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Context of the research
Methodology
Case study
Results
Conclusions and further developments
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Context of the research
The committments of the Kyoto Protocol (KP)
Italy must reduce its overall GHG emission level
by at least 6.5 below 1990 levels (as concerns
CO2, CH4, N2O) and 1995 levels (as concerns HFCs,
PFCs, SF6) in the committment period 2008-2012
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Context of the research
The normative framework
The 1998 Italian Guidelines for national policies
and measures aimed to the reduction of greenhouse
gases emissions require the implementation of
many measures in different economic and
technological sectors
Delibera CIPE n. 137 del 19 novembre 1998 Linee
guida per le politiche nazionali di riduzione
delle emissioni di gas serra
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Context of the research
The normative framework
The Italian Law no. 120 of 1 June 2002 ratifies
the KP and confirms the key-role of technology
innovation in the reduction of GHGs on
medium-long term.
Approaching the national Kyoto Protocol (KP)
targets involves a re-definition of the actual
configuration of local energy systems.
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Context of the research
The new role of local government bodies
The Italian Regions and local government bodies
signed on 5 June 2001 an Agreement Protocol aimed
at reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases
into the atmosphere. In particular, they are
involved in

• defining, in the framework of Air Quality Plans,
  optimal strategies for GHG emissions reduction
• elaborating an Energy Environmental Plan aimed
  at increasing the use of renewable energy sources
  and technological innovation the rationalization
  of electricity production and energy uses
• valorizing the role of technological innovation
  by suited support policies

Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Context of the research
Methodology
Case study
Results
Conclusions and further developments
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Methodology
A methodology for local energy systems analysis
Purpose To find a path towards an economic and
ecological sustainable local energy system while
also taking into account limited financial and
human resources as well as incomplete insight
into the future development of economic,
technical and social conditions.
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Methodology
More information on the ALEP project
can be found in the ALEP website and Guidebook
http//www.iea-alep.pz.cnr.it
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Methodology
ALEP
? ALEP is based on the integration of different
tools databases, comprehensive models, auxiliary
tools ? its results serve as the basis for a
group-dynamic approach to achieve consensual
solutions among the different actors who are
involved in the implementation of this plan
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Methodology
The comprehensive model
The MARKAL (MARKet Allocation) linear programming
models generator was developed 20 years ago
within the international IEA/ETSAP framework.
It has originally been used as an energy system
analysis tool at national level and now most of
the OECD Countries use it for strategic
environmental planning on local and national
scale. MARKAL, in comparison to other energy and
materials flow optimisation models has the
availability of a worldwide set of databases and
the expert support group ETSAP
www.etsap.org www.ecn.nl/unit_bs/etsap www.iea.or
g
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Context of the research
Methodology
Case study
Results
Conclusions and further developments
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Case study
The case study
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Case study
Main issues
_at_ to perform a comprehensive analysis of the
regional energy system, evaluating the
feasibility of - reductions in fossil fuels
consumption, - improvements of technological
efficiency, - promotion of renewable energy
sources.
_at_ to analyse the effects of environmental
constraints on the model solutions, in terms of
- changes in technological choice, -
repercussions on the system costs - effects on
local air pollutants.
_at_ to provide local energy planners with an
assessment of strategies, measures and
interventions on the local energy system, aimed
at coping with the national KP targets.
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Case study
The Regional MARKAL
Use of the Regional MARKAL variant (R-MARKAL), to
implement a two-region model which emphasizes the
links between supply side and demand side .
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Case study
The regions of MARKAL-Basilicata (I)
Region 1 ? Conversion technologies Fossil
fuels and renewables ? Waste management system
municipal solid waste (MSW)
plastic films from Agriculture secondary
raw materials industrial waste streams
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Case study
The regions of MARKAL-Basilicata (II)
Region 2 ? Agriculture ? Civil
Residential, Commercial and Services ?
Industry Food and Drink Paper
Chemical Mining Building materials
Mechanic Iron and steel Textile
Glass-Ceramics Buildings Other
industries ? Transport Railway Road
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Case study
Work hypotheses and scenarios
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Context of the research
Methodology
Case study
Results
Conclusions and further developments
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Results
The BASE scenario (I)
Waste management system
In absence of superimposed constraints the
optimisation routine reproduces the actual
configuration of the system, in which landfilling
is the marginal option
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Results
The BASE scenario (II)

• a 13.7 reduction in the energy use of Civil
  sector due to technological turnover (8 ktoe) and
  insulation (about 12.4 ktoe)
• this means an overall 4 reduction of the fossil
  fuels use for the regional system.

Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Results
The POST-KYOTO scenario (I)
The CO2-4.4 case a 21 reduction of fossil fuels
use is achieved by promoting relevant changes in
the waste management system as well as in the
technology configuration of both supply and
demand side.
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Results
The POST-KYOTO scenario (II)
The CO2-4.4 case a substantial reduction in the
total energy use compared to the BASE scenario.
Energy supply

• a further 6 of energy saving can be achieved
  saturating the insulation level of existing
  buildings and carrying out district heating grids
  for new residential areas
• start up of incinerators from the III period
  the heat recovered induces a 11 reduction in the
  use of natural gas

Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Results
Cost analysis Trade-off curves and shadow prices
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Results
Cost analysis reduced costs (I)
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Results
Cost analysis reduced costs (II)
Residential thermal energy demand
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Results
Environmental effects
GHGs
LAP
Comparison among 2010 and 1997 emission levels
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Context of the research
Methodology
Case study
Results
Conclusions and further developments
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Conclusion and further developments
Conclusions and recommendations
important role of technologies efficiency and
renewables
important role of the waste management system
GHGs constraint is not a driving parameter for
local air pollutants reduction
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Conclusion and further developments
Further developments
Assessing policies and price mechanisms in
order to derive recommendations for policy
makers Introducing external costs in the
energy model Developing a set of
sustainability energy-environmental indicators on
local scale, in order to define quantitative
targets for evaluating the performance of an
energy system
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Grazie
Thanks for your kind attention
GRAZIE
Annual Meeting of the International Energy
Workshop jointly organized by EMF/IEA/IIASA at
the Conference Center Laxenburg 25 June 2003
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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(No Transcript)
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Methodology
The MARKAL models generator (I)
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Methodology
The MARKAL models generator (II)
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Methodology
Mathematical features
Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Results
The BASE scenario (III)
Civil sector
Technology choice for thermal energy production

• from year 2000 combined single-family LPG and
  natural gas boilers replace most of the existing
  devices about 80 (55 ktoe/year) of the energy
  demand.
• considerable reduction in the use of central
  heating plants (from 11.6 ktoe/year in 1997 to
  1.8 ktoe/year in the last periods) because these
  technologies (most of them diesel oil fuelled)
  are also characterised by higher maintenance
  costs and a lower versatility with different
  users requirements.

Technology choice for water heating

• the most widespread technologies are electric
  boilers (61) and natural gas boilers (21).

Technology choice for the Commercial and services

• large use of natural gas devices for thermal
  energy production, which substitute the existing
  diesel oil and LPG technologies

Dr Monica Salvia IMAA
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Results
The POST-KYOTO scenario (III)
Civil sector
Technology choice for thermal energy production

• The average contribution (calculated on the last
  seven time periods) of technology options is
• 47 combined single-family natural gas boilers,
• 19 heat exchangers,
• 18 other devices (stoves, fireplaces),
• 5 combined single-family LPG boilers (-29
  compared to the actual situation),
• 10 centralised heating plants.

importance of promoting interventions aimed to
the improvement of buildings insulation, which
allows a 16.6 ktoe reduction in the fossil uses
(CO2-4.4)
Technology choice for water heating

• electric water heating systems are substituted
  by other options (68 solar collectors, 16 comb.
  s-f natural gas boilers, 14 comb. s-f LPG
  boilers, and 2 heat exchangers)

Dr Monica Salvia IMAA