NOAA Climate Program: Status and Directions

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NOAA Climate Program Status and Directions

• Dave Goodrich
• NOAA Climate Program Office
• NOAA Fisheries Leadership Council
• November 30, 2004

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Program Plan OverviewMission Goal 2 - Climate

• Understand climate variability and change
• to enhance societys ability to plan and respond.
• OUTCOMES
• A predictive understanding of the global climate
  system with quantified uncertainties sufficient
  for making informed and reasoned decisions on
  timescales of weeks to decades.
• Climate-sensitive sectors and the
  climate-literate public effectively incorporating
  NOAAs climate products into their decisions and
  plans.

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Program Plan Objectives

• Describe and understand the state of the climate
  system through integrated observations, analysis,
  and data stewardship.
• Reduce uncertainty in climate projections through
  timely information on the forcing and feedbacks
  contributing to changes in the Earths climate.
• Improve climate predictive capability from weeks
  to decades, with an increased range of
  applicability for management and policy
  decisions.
• Understand and predict the consequences of
  climate variability and change in marine
  ecosystems.
• Increase number and use of climate products and
  services to enhance public and private sector
  decision making.

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Climate Program Structure

• Climate Program Director Chet Koblinsky
• Climate Program Element Program Manager
• Observations and Analysis Tom Karl/NESDIS
• Climate Forcing Dan Albritton/OAR
• Predictions and Projections Ants Leetmaa/OAR
• Climate and Ecosystems Ned Cyr/NMFS
• Regional Decision Support Bob Livezey/NWS

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Argo Status - November 2004
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Observations and AnalysisObjectives

• Describe and understand the state of the climate
  system through integrated observations, analysis,
  and data stewardship
• A tiered and integrated observational network
  that provides sustained global and U.S.
  monitoring of key climate related parameters
• An end-to-end data stewardship system to provide
  climate quality information and respond to the
  projected data growth rates
• Provide sophisticated analyses to differentiate
  climate variability and change as a result of
  natural processes and human activities.
• Desired End-State Integrated and complete ocean
  and surface, upper air and space observing
  systems in support of the mission outcome a
  predictive understanding of the global climate
  system
• FY07 Improve climate forecast through observing
  and data systems with full coverage of
  continental US atmosphere and sparse coverage of
  global ocean, as well as atmospheric reanalysis
  of 1920s to 2000.
• FY11 Significantly improve global climate
  forecast with integrated observing and data
  systems for US atmosphere and global oceans and
  atmosphere-ocean reanalysis and attribution
  studies of the 20th century.

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Climate Forcing Objectives

• Reduce uncertainty in climate projections through
  timely information on the forcings and feedbacks
  contributing to changes in the Earth's climate
• Attain a timely understanding of atmospheric and
  oceanic carbon dioxide trends, both natural and
  human, that may be directly applied to climate
  projection and to policy decisions regarding
  climate management that are related to limiting
  unwanted effects of future climate change.
• Provide timely and adequate information on the
  climate roles of the radiatively important trace
  atmospheric species (e.g., fine-particle aerosols
  and ozone) that is needed to broaden the suite of
  non-carbon options available for policy support
  regarding the climate change issue.
• Desired End-State The understanding needed to
  link emissions to the radiative forcing of
  climate change for science-based decision support
  in support of the mission outcome a predictive
  understanding of the global climate system
• FY07 Improve long-term projections on the future
  state of the climate understanding of aerosol
  impacts on Earths radiative balance and
  monitoring carbon over most of North America at
  coarse resolution.
• FY11 Improve projections of the future state of
  the climate through better understanding of North
  American carbon sources and sinks and improved
  parameterizations of aerosol and water vapor
  impacts on the Earths radiative balance

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Predictions and ProjectionsObjectives

• Develop a predictive understanding of the global
  climate system on timescales of weeks to decades
  with quantified uncertainties sufficient for
  making informed decisions
• Improve intraseasonal and interannual climate
  predictions to enable regional and national
  managers to better plan for the impacts of
  climate variability and change
• Provide improved regional, national, and
  international climate assessments and projections
  to support policy decisions with objective
  information.
• Desired End-State A seamless suite of forecasts
  (e.g. outlooks and projections) on intraseasonal,
  seasonal, interannual, and multi-decadal
  timescales and applications using ensembles of
  multiple climate models in support of the mission
  outcome a predictive understanding of the global
  climate system
• FY07 Provide regional resolution forecasts to
  decision makers through increased computer and
  model capacity.
• FY11 Provide a broader suite of climate forecast
  products and services through development of
  Earth System Model.

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Climate Impacts on EcosystemsObjectives

• Understand and predict the consequences of
  climate variability and change on marine
  ecosystems
• Predict the probable consequences of global
  climate change on ecological systems and their
  living resources
• Deliver to fisheries and coastal zone managers
  the knowledge and tools needed to incorporate
  climate variability into the management of living
  marine and coastal resources.
• Develop indicators of climate variability that
  affect coastal and marine living resources.
• Desired End-State An ability to predict probable
  consequences of global climate change on
  ecological systems and living resources in
  support of of the mission outcome a predictive
  understanding of the global climate system
• FY07 Increase understanding of climate decadal
  change impacts on North Pacific marine ecosystems
  over a wider geographic extent.
• FY11 Better understanding of place-based impacts
  of climate variability and change on North
  Pacific ecosystems and climate-induced sea level
  inundation on coastal ecosystems in southeastern
  US.

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Regional Decision SupportObjectives

• Increase number and use of climate products and
  services to enhance public and private sector
  decision making
• The climate literate public effectively
  incorporating NOAAs climate products into their
  regular operations.
• Enhanced public and private sector performance
  through better access, understanding, and use of
  climate information in planning and decision
  making.
• An operational infrastructure to continually
  infuse information to decision makers through
  product development and delivery.
• A responsive research enterprise focused on
  identifying the nations principal climate
  sensitive resource challenges and opportunities
  and creating knowledge and tools useful to
  expanded options for decision makers.
• Desired End-State A mature and efficient system
  for understanding and responding to stakeholder
  needs for products and services in support of
  mission outcome 2 to incorporate NOAA products
  into plans and decisions
• FY07 Improve coordination of research,
  transition, and operational products and services
  and begin to evaluate outcomes
• FY11 Expand and improve regional and national
  services, based on evaluation, such that
  operations and management in climate sensitive
  sectors is markedly improved