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EuroScanner Pilot-Site Lisbon
Alfred Wagtendonk / Rui Pedro Julião / Joost
Buurman
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• Contents
• Introduction
• Choice and objectives of pilot-studies
• Historical and geographical background Pilot
  site-Lisbon
• Policy-plans and driving forces
• Planned simulations with Euroscanner

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Objectives of the pilot-studies
Provide examples of the spatial analysis possible
in EuroScanner. Translation of theoretical
knowledge about rural-urban interactions into
spatial transition rules Assist policy makers in
evaluation of different policies and scenarios.
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Choice of the pilot-sites
Rotterdam/Randstad Metropoliton
region Paris-region Global city Lisbon-regi
on Capital city
Problem definition pilot-site Lisbon What
rural-urban land use developments took place in
the Lisbon area the last decades, how can these
developments be explained and translated to land
use rules and what will be the effect of
different scenarios and spatial strategies?
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• Contents
• Introduction
• Choice and objectives of pilot-studies
• Historical and geographical background Pilot
  site-Lisbon
• Policy-plans and driving forces
• Planned simulations with Euroscanner

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Lisbon and Tagus Valley Region (LTVR)
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Agriculture and forest in LTVR
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Population and Economic activity

• Most dynamic and densely populated area of
  Portugal
• population density of 276 inhab/sqKm (105.9
  inhab/sqKm for the mainland)
• peek between 25 and 45100 inhab/sqKm
• North/South dualism
• EC support (1989-1993)
• 35.4 of total support
• 70.7 of industrial support
• Exclusion from Objective 1 regions for the next
  framework

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Pilot-site area of Lisbon

• The choice of the boundary of the pilot-site area
• interaction urban/rural is more intense in Lisbon
  Metropolitan Area and surrounding area
• the localisation in Ota of the proposed new
  international airport of Lisbon
• the regional plan for the LMA that is being
  developed
• the available satellite images.

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Satellite images
1984
1998
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Urban Development 1970-1990
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• Contents
• Introduction
• Choice and objectives of pilot-studies
• Historical and geographical background Pilot
  site-Lisbon
• Policy-plans and driving forces
• Planned simulations with Euroscanner

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Urban Development Axis and Accessibility
1 - Cascais 2 - Sintra 3 - Loures 4 - Vila Franca
Xira 5 - Almada-Fogueteiro
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Urban Development Axis
1 - Cascais Structured by the railway along the
coast with the support of A6 and N6 First area to
have a urbanisation plan Middle and high income
residents Self sustainable region that is
attracting outside investment 2 - Sintra Major
urbanisation axis of Lisbon Structured along
railway and IC19 Highly dense and compact
urbanisation or chaotic urbanisation 500.000
inhabitants (25 of LMA) mostly middle and low
income Industrial and distribution activities 3 -
Loures Only supported by road access Densely
occupied near Lisbon with some chaotic
urbanisation Middle and low income residents
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Urban Development Axis
4 - Vila Franca Xira Structured by the railway,
N10 and A1 Heavy industry axis connected with
former Lisbon industrial area Low income
residential area mixed with industrial locations
between A1 and Tagus Large clandestine
urbanisation above A1 5 - Almada-Fogueteiro Only
South side axis Supported by A2 and N10 after
1966 Oldest part corresponds to the Almada City,
Pragal and Cacilhas that were connected to Lisbon
by boat Reinforcement of this axis is expected
due to the recently train connection to Lisbon
and light railway. This area has one of largest
clandestine occupation of the LMA Radial
development centred in Lisbon with a railway and
road radial configuration Accessibility to
Lisbon Absence of planning
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Fragmentation
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Urban and Regional Plans

• Total absence of planning
• The exception is the Master Plan for Estoril
  Coast (from the 40s)
• First law of municipal planning is from 1982, but
  only in the 90s plans were made
• All plans were concluded between 92 and 99
• Regarding the proposals it is relevant
• Urban development on the North
• consolidation of the fifth development axis
• new recreation areas on Benavente

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LMA Regional PlanStrategic Schema

• Objectives
• Promote LMA as Atlantic capital of Europe
• Re-centre the LMA in Tagus estuary
• Poli-centre the urban development
• Preserve and promote territorial diversity and
  environmental quality
• Territorial Strategy
• Create a dual zone core
• Create a ring of service centres
• Push industrial locations out
• Create Internationalisation poles
• Recover and integrate illegal urbanisation
• Create gateways to national and international
  networks
• Preserve and link natural areas

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• Contents
• Introduction
• Choice and objectives of pilot-studies
• Historical and geographical background Pilot
  site-Lisbon
• Policy-plans and driving forces
• Planned simulations with Euroscanner

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Ways to use Euroscanner

• 1. Future exploration. Simulation of
  (alternative) spatial perspectives based on
  expert judgement.
• 2. Extrapolation of historic trends. Simulation
  of a future reference-image or base-scenario
  based on statistical analysis.
• 3. (Short-term) simulation of the effects of
  planned interventions in landscape or
  infrastructure. Based on expert judgement or
  statistically based transition rules.
• 4. Comparison of different national or regional
  spatial strategies. What happens if the spatial
  strategy of zone A is carried out in zone B
  (including transition rules) ?
• 5. Combination of one or more methods.

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Simulation of spatial perspectives, Netherlands
2030

• Netherlands Country of Cities
• Netherlands Landscapepark
• Netherlands Country of Flows
• Netherlands Palette.

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Netherlands landscapepark
Base maps (not all of them...)
Gravity-map of transitions in landscape patterns
Valuable man-made landscapes
Gravity-map to water-areas
Attractivity residential areas (5 (if
pk.landscape gt -0.4) and pk.landscape lt
-0.1)) then 1 else 0 endif
)) (5 pk.water)) (2
manmade.wcl)
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Ways to use Euroscanner

• 1. Future exploration. Simulation of
  (alternative) spatial perspectives based on
  expert judgement.
• 2. Extrapolation of historic trends. Simulation
  of a future reference-image or base-scenario
  based on statistical analysis.
• 3. (Short-term) simulation of the effects of
  planned interventions in landscape or
  infrastructure. Based on expert judgement or
  statistically based transition rules.
• 4. Comparison of different national or regional
  spatial strategies. What happens if the spatial
  strategy of zone A is carried out in zone B
  (including transition rules) ?
• 5. Combination of one or more methods.

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Our approach
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Your approach ?
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References
1 CCRLVT, 1999 PROTAML, Ante-Projecto, CCRLVT,
Lisboa 2 Hilferink, M., P. Rietveld, 1998
Land-use Scanner, discussion paper 98-108/3,
Tinbergen Institute. YUSE GSO Object Vision /
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. 3 Julião, R. P.
(Coord.), 1998 Atlas de Lisboa e Vale do Tejo,
UNL/FCSH - Dep. de Geografia e Planeamento
Regional, Lisboa 4 Schotten, C.G.J., W.T.
Boersma, J. Groen en .J. van de Velde, 1997
Simulatie van de ruimtelijke perspectieven
Nederland 2030. RIVM-rapport 711901 004. RIVM,
Bilthoven.