The agricultural component of Poles

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The agricultural component of emission scenarios

• The Agri-Pol model (Proposal)
• A.Fallot - D.Deybe

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Objectives

• Estimate Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves for
  agricultural and forestry activities in the 17
  IMAGE regions
• Close the linkage with IMAGE results, so that MAC
  curves integrate the impact of different
  scenarios hypotheses
• Organise the results for POLES
• Be transparent

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Two options

• Estimate land allocation and technical choices
• Make the land allocation and technical choices a
  function of C price
• The second option is implemented for the sake of
  consistency within GECS project

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On which basis?

• The starting point for each simulated year is
  the scenario generated by IMAGE (initial land
  allocation, productions, available resources)
• Additionally, we are collecting data on the
  alternative technical options for each activity
  and region

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• The decision-making results from a cost-benefit
  analysis that includes carbon price and a risk
  coefficient for each technique for each activity
• This coefficient allows to  calibrate  the
  model
• The objective function maximises agricultural
  return less the risk premium associated with
  the decision

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The model

• s.t.

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Activities

• 8 categories
• Dairy livestock
• Non-Dairy livestock
• Rice
• Cereals
• Oil seeds
• Pulses, roots and tubers
• Pastures
• Forestry

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Resources

• Land
• Feed for live stocks, inputs for crops
• Labour Managerial capacity
• Capital
• Forage for live stocks

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Possible transfers expected

• Forestry - Deforestation - Reforestation
• Pasture - Agricultural land - Pasture

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The outcomes are

• Degree of intensity of each activity at different
  technological levels
• Land use
• Total C emission

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Example of preliminary results
Non CO2, OECD Europe
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Non CO2, OECD Europe
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Problems

• Data collection
• Some trends
• Risk coefficients
• Check with experts
• 17 IMAGE regions to 38 POLES regions
• Estimates with FAO data base?
• K, feed and inputs
• check consistency ?

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Questions

• C sinks (the model is prepared for forestry and
  soils, but we lack data on soils)
• Climate influence?
• What about CO2?
• Crop/forest burning?

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