The WCRP in support of the IPCC

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The WCRP in support of the IPCC

• David Carson
• Director WCRP
• SBSTA17, New Delhi, India
• 28 October 2002

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Research priorities

• Detecting, attributing and projecting the
  magnitude and extent of human induced climate
  change, regional variations and related sea-level
  rise
• input to the IPCC, UNFCCC and other Conventions

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CLIVAR 1995 ?
SPARC 1992?
WGNE WGCM
WOCE 1990-2002
TOGA 1985-1994
GEWEX 1988 ?
ACSYS/CLIC 19942003/2000 ?
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CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability)
CLIVAR is an interdisciplinary research effort
within the World Climate Research Programme
(WCRP) focusing on the variability and
predictability of the slowly varying components
of the climate system. CLIVAR investigates
the physical and dynamical processes in the
climate system that occur on seasonal,
interannual, decadal and centennial time-scales.
http//www.clivar.org
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Change of Atlantic circulation

• A FULL SHUT-DOWN CANNOT BE EXCLUDED BEYOND 2100

Stocker et al, IPCC, 2001
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GEWEX PHASE IIOverall guiding goals (JSC-XXII,
March 2001)

• production of consistent descriptions of Earths
  energy budget and water cycle and their
  variability and trends, and data sets for
  validation of models
• enhancing understanding of how energy and water
  cycle processes contribute to climate feedbacks
• developing improved parametrizations
  encapsulating these processes and feedbacks for
  atmospheric circulation models

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Why a CEOP ?
Timing of new satellites and GEWEX CSEs provides
opportunity for significant benefit from a more
coordinated observation period.
North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)
Monsoon Experiment in South America (MESA)
(MDB)
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Cloud-climate forcing and feedback

• representation of cloud-climate forcing and
  feedback in models - one of the most uncertain
  areas in climate simulations and projections of
  climate change
• key to progress - combination of modelling and
  observations to establish a (predictive)
  understanding of relationship between clouds and
  the circulation, and of many other feedbacks/
  relationships involved

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CHANGES IN MONSOON PRECIPITATION between the
present day and the middle of the 21st century
Global climate model Regional
climate model
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Predictability Assessment of the Climate
SystemFoci

• The determination of the temporal and spatial
  patterns of climate variations
• The determination of the extent of useful skill
  in predicting monthly to decadal variations in
  climate
• The determination of the extent to which we can
  design global models to correctly reproduce the
  pdfs of sub-decadal variability in climate

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Predictability Assessment of the Climate
SystemFoci

• The determination of the temporal and spatial
  changes in these pdfs in a changing climate
  regional manifestations of climate change
• The development of data management and analysis
  systems and of predictive models, and
  contribution to the development of observational
  data systems

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IPCC WGI TARHigh-priority areas for action

• Modelling and process studies
• - Improve understanding of the mechanisms and
  factors leading to changes in radiative forcing
• - Understand and characterise the important
  unresolved processes and feedbacks, both
  physical and biogeochemical, in the climate
  system

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IPCC WGI TARHigh-priority areas for action

• Modelling and process studies (ctd.)
• - Improve methods to quantify uncertainties of
  climate projections and scenarios, including
  long term ensemble simulations using complex
  models
• - Improve the integrated hierarchy of global and
  regional climate models with a focus on the
  simulation of climate variability, regional
  climate changes and extreme events
• - Link more effectively models of the physical
  climate and the biogeochemical system, and in
  turn improve coupling with descriptions of human
  activities

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