Global Warming Response Legislation: Need and Prospects

1
Science audit for
Legislation to Balance Energy Policy and Climate
Policy Need and Prospects A PowerPoint
Presentation by Robert M. Simon Democratic Staff
Director Senate Committee on Energy and Natural
Resources
Prepared by
The Center for Science and Public Policy,
Washington, D.C. www.scienceandpolicy.org,
(202-454-5249)
2
Global Surface Temperatures Have Greatly
Increased Since the 1800s
Simon Says
3
Observations Say
An extension of the observed temperature trend
during the past 30 years leads to only a small
warming by 2100 that lies near the low end of the
IPCC projections. The impact of the Kyoto
Protocol is virtually negligible. Domestic
legislation even less.
4
Slide 3 Background Surface temperatures have
risen by about 0.8ºC during the past century, and
during the past 30 years, they have been rising
at a rate of 0.17ºC/decade. Some of this
long-term temperature rise has been due to
variations in the output of the sun, but most of
it, at least during the past 30 years, has likely
arisen from changes to the earths greenhouse
effect. The current warming rate of 0.17ºC/decade
has been remarkably constant during the past 3
decades, apart from short-term variations from
periodic El Niños/La Niñas and volcanic
eruptions. This constancy has been observed
despite ever-growing greenhouse gas emissions and
indicates that the earths climate is responding
in a well-behaved way to greenhouse emissions.
Given this knowledge, we are able to better
understand the direction and magnitude of
temperature changes in the coming decades. The
graph on the following slide combines the
observed history of global average temperatures
during the past century with the projections of
temperature rise made by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 2001 Third
Assessment Report. Notice that the observed
temperature rise during the past 30 years, if it
continues into the future, will lie along the low
end of the IPCC projections. Such a rise produces
only minimal global impacts some of them
positive, although attempting to avoid it
produces major economic costs. The effects of
emissions reductions efforts, such as the Kyoto
Protocol, on slowing the projected temperature
rise is minimal and virtually undetectable.
5
Global Surface Warming Has Been Greatest in Polar
Regions In Agreement with Global Warming Model
Predictions
Simon Says
6
Observations Say
Global Surface Warming Has Been Greatest in Polar
Regions In Agreement with Global Warming Model
Predictions???
Observed Changelargest warming over Siberia and
northwestern North America (incl. Alaska).
Cooling over much of Antarctica.
Modeled Future Changelargest warming over the
Arctic Ocean
This is not a match!!
7
The Oceans Have Warmed At All Levels Over the
Past 50 Years
Simon Says
8
Observations Say
Ocean temperatures have unexpectedly declined the
past several years.
(Source Lyman et al., 2006, GRL)
9
Slide 8 Background According to a recent study
by Lyman et al. The updated time series of
ocean heat content presented hereand the newly
estimated confidence limitssupport the
significance of previously reported large
interannual variability in globally integrated
upper-ocean heat content.... However, the
physical causes for this type of variability are
not yet well understood. Furthermore, this
variability is not adequately simulated in the
current generation of coupled climate models used
to study the impact of anthropogenic influences
on climate.
10
Simon Says
Polar Ice Caps Have Shrunk Dramatically from 1979
to 2003
11
Observations Say
Long-term Arctic Temperature History
(Polyakov et al., 2002)
????? (no measurements) Ice extent, 1935
Ice extent, 1979
Ice extent, 2003
12
Slide 11 Background A good temperature history
of the Arctic begins before long before 1979
(corresponding to the first image in Slide 9), in
fact, it can be traced fairly reliably back into
the late 1880s. In examining that record (for
instance from Polyakov et al., 2002), you see
that during the 1930s, temperatures averaged over
the Arctic were about as high as they are today
before large man-made CO2 emissions. And that
the warmth of the 1930s gradually declined into
the coolness that characterized the 1960s and
1970s. Since then, temperatures have gradually
been rising again. It should come as little
surprise that there is less sea ice in the Arctic
summer presently than there was in the late
1970sa time that was known to be cooler than
today. However, it would have been interesting
to have satellites orbiting the earth and
recording Arctic sea ice extent back in the
1930s, because if temperatures are the cause of
the sea ice declines during the past several
decades, than certainly there must have been
similarly low amounts of sea ice in the Arctic
during the 1930s. This would be strong evidence
that the current extent of Arctic sea ice is not
unusual in the long runbut instead, simply
reflects the incomplete information that is
contained in a short period of record.
13
Observations Say
What about the other PoleAntarctica?
Antarctic Sea Ice Trendsgoing up!
(Source National Snow and Ice Data Center)
Antarctic Land Ice Trends going up over most of
the continent
Source Vaughn, D.G., 2005. How does the
Antarctic ice sheet affect sea level rise?
Science, 308, 1877-1878.
14
Slide 13 Background And what about sea ice
trends around Antarctica, the earths other pole?
Well, it turns out that there, the amount of sea
ice has been increasing during the same time that
sea ice declines have been observed in the Arctic
Ocean. We can only wonder why the trends in
Antarctic sea ice were not shown alongside the
trends in Arctic sea ice. Further, there is
evidence that the amount of snow and ice over a
large portion of the continent of Antarctica is
also increasing, as demonstrated by Davis et al.
(2005).
15
Observed Winter Surface Cooling over Arctic-whole
and Central Arctic Ocean for 1982-1999 by polar
AVHRR Contradicts warming predictions from GCMs
Note the observed winter surface cooling over the
Eastern and Central Arctic Ocean from 1982-1999
by AVHRR instruments are in sharp CONTRADICTION
to the predicted CO2-induced warming trends
Alaska
Greenland
Wang and Key (2003) Science, vol. 299, 1725-1728
16
Greenland Ice-sheet is growing at interior and
high-elevation regions (1992-2003)
Ice accumulating at interior and
high-elevation sites of Greenland
Ice ablating at coastal and lower elevation
sites of Greenland only
spatially- averaged rate 5.4 0.2 cm/year
areas with greater than 1500 meter elevation
(interior)
areas with less than 1500 meter elevation
(coastal)
Ice-sheet elevation change rate cm/year
Johannessen et al. (2005) Science, vol. 310,
1013-1016
17
The 1995-2005 warming in Greenland is probably
natural and unexceptional when compared to the
warming of the 1920-1930
Chylek et al. (2006) GRL, in press (preprint
dated May 5, 2006)
18
Power Dissipation by Atlantic Hurricanes Has
DoubledOver the Past 30 Years
Simon Says
19
Observations Say
Power Dissipation by Atlantic Hurricanes Has
DoubledOver the Past 30 Years??
As published by Emanuel, 2005
As corrected by Landsea, 2005
These factors indicate that instead of
unprecedented tropical cyclone activity having
occurred in recent years, hurricane intensity was
equal or even greater during the last active
period in the mid-twentieth century. (Landsea,
2005)
It is misleading to characterize Emanuels
results as indicating an increase in
destructiveness or as an indication of future
increases in destruction resulting from changes
in the power-dissipation index. (Pielke, Jr.,
2005)
20
Slide 19 Background In August 2005, Nature
magazine published a scientific research article
authored by Dr. Kerry Emanuel that concluded that
there had been an unprecedented large upswing
in Atlantic hurricane activity that probably
reflects the effect of global warming. However
a subsequent re-examination of Emanuels data and
methodology by hurricane researcher Dr.
Christopher Landsea showed (also in Nature
magazine) that there were major errors in
Emanuels original calculations, and that when
these errors were properly accounted for, much of
the long-term trend purported by Emanuel was
eliminated as well as his unprecedented large
upswing during the past ten years. Emanuel
(2005a) wrote Note that total Atlantic
hurricane power dissipation has more than doubled
in the past 30 years... The large upswing in
the last decade is unprecedented, and probably
reflects the effect of global warming. However,
soon after publications, major problems in the
methodology used by Emanuel to produce his
results were uncovered by scientists who
attempted to reproduce Emanuels seemingly
unbelievable results. The errors that were
uncovered were of a large enough magnitude that
Nature magazine published a Comment on
Emanuels results by hurricane climatologist
Christopher Landsea (2005) pointing out the
problems. Landsea uncovered two major problems
with Emanuels work, one was a major
computational error, the other concerned the
veracity of the data used in the early part of
Emanuels study. Correcting for both issues
virtually eliminated the long-term trend
purported by Emanuel as well as his
unprecedented large upswing during the past ten
years. Landsea ultimately concluded after
correcting for everything that he found that is
wrong with Emanuels results These factors
indicate that instead of unprecedented tropical
cyclone activity having occurred in recent years,
hurricane intensity was equal or even greater
during the last active period in the
mid-twentieth century.
21
Based on data over the last twenty years, no
significant increasing trend is evident in the
global number of Category 45 hurricanes.
The recent destructive Atlantic hurricane
seasons and several recent publications have
sparked debate over whether warming tropical sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) are causing more
intense, longer-lived tropical cyclones. This
paper investigates worldwide tropical cyclone
frequency and intensity to determine trends in
activity over the past twenty years during which
there has been an approximate 0.20.4C warming of
SSTs. The data indicate a large increasing trend
in tropical cyclone intensity and longevity for
the North Atlantic basin and a considerable
decreasing trend for the Northeast Pacific. All
other basins showed small trends, and there has
been no significant change in global net tropical
cyclone activity. Klotzbach, 2006, Trends in
global tropical cyclone activity over the past 20
years (1986-2005), Geophysical Research Letters.
22
The global intensity and longevity of tropical
cyclones, averaged over all ocean basins (global
ACE), is definitely not increasing rapidly as the
tropical SST warms dramatically in the past 16
years
is not increasing rapidly in the past 16 years!
Tropical SST warms significantly from 1990-2005
Source Gray (2006) AMS April 06 paper Global
Warming and Hurricanes and Klozbach (2006) GRL,
in press
23
The North Indian Ocean shows no correlation
between Sea Surface Temperatures and ACE. The
South Indian Oceans correlation is actually
negative.
Data courtesy of Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State
University
24
The Atlantic storms are reduced in number in
particular the stronger ones, while the storms in
the eastern Pacific are virtually unchanged
though there is some indication of fewer extreme
storms. In the western Pacific there is little
change. It is interesting to note that the change
in SSTs by between 2-3C has not had any
influence on the numbers and intensities of the
more powerful tropical storms original
emphasis. Bengtsson et al. (2006) Journal of
Climate, accepted
25
Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index Across the
Worlds Tropical Oceans
Is the selective focus on the recent events in
North Atlantic basin in Figure 1 of Emanuel
(2005) scientifically defensible or justifiable?
Chart courtesy of Dr. David Levinson, NOAA (March
28, 2006)
26
Its Not Changes in the Sun That Are Warming the
Globe
Simon Says
27
Observations Say
Simon completely ignores, misunderstands or
discounts the historical and present influence of
our variable star, the sun, on earths climate.
Sunspots
Solar flares
28
Observations say
Its the sun, stupid!
The energy output from the Sun has increased
significantly during the 20th century, according
to a new study... By analyzing the amount of
titanium 44, a radioactive isotope, the team
found a significant increase in the Sun's
radioactive output during the 20th century. Over
the past few decades, however, they found the
solar activity has stabilized at this
higher-than-historic level.    --Jeanna Bryner,
Space.com, 26 September 2006
29
Observations Say
NASA STUDY FINDS INCREASING SOLAR TREND THAT CAN
CHANGE CLIMATE (http//www.nasa.gov/centers/goddar
d/news/topstory/2003/0313irradiance.html)
ACRIM Composite Showing Total Solar Irradiance
Trend Between Solar Minima. This graphic shows
the recent trend of a .05 percent per decade
increase in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) in watts
per meter squared, or the amount of solar energy
that falls upon a square meter outside the
Earths atmosphere. The trend was measured
between successive solar minima that occur
approximately every 11 years. Credit ACRIM3
Science Team (R. Willson)
30
Slide 29 Background According to a March 20,
2003 NASA press release (http//www.nasa.gov/cente
rs/goddard/news/topstory/2003/0313irradiance.html)
since the late 1970s, the amount of solar
radiation the sun emits, during times of quiet
sunspot activity, has increased by nearly 0.05
percent per decade. "This trend is important
because, if sustained over many decades, it could
cause significant climate change," said Richard
Willson, a researcher affiliated with NASA's
Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia
University's Earth Institute, New York. He is the
lead author of the study recently published in
Geophysical Research Letters. "Historical
records of solar activity indicate that solar
radiation has been increasing since the late 19th
century. If a trend, comparable to the one found
in this study, persisted throughout the 20th
century, it would have provided a significant
component of the global warming the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports
to have occurred over the past 100 years," he
said. Furthermore, a paper by Duke researchers
Nicola Scafetta and Bruce West published in the
journal Geophysical Research Letters in March
2006 concluded We estimate that the sun
contributed as much as 4550 of the 19002000
global warming, and 2535 of the 19802000
global warming.
31
Solar Intensity
All spectrums of solar irradiance are very high
today relative to the most recent past cold
period.
32
Sunspot activity
There is good correlation between solar sunspot
and temperature variability.
Modern warm period
33
The cause of much of the temperature variation in
the earths climate is natural fluctuations in
the output of the sun. Changes in solar output
can be tracked by variations in sunspot numbers.
Below, is a reconstruction of sunspot numbers for
the past 1,000 years. Notice the increase during
the last 100 years or so. This recent increase
is probably responsible for much of the global
temperature rise in the early 20th century, and
some of the rise sustained in the latter half of
the 20th century.
Maunder Minimum (Little Ice Age)
Dickens Winters
Sunspot Number (reconstructed) 1,000 to 2000 A.D.
Medieval Warm Period
Modern Warm Period
Sporer Minimum
34
Sun-climate relations The Sun has impacts on
atmospheric circulation and hydrology of the past
2000 years
Solar activity
Maasch et al. (2005) Geografiska Annaler, vol. 87
A, 7-15
35
Solar irradiance correlates better with global
surface temperatures than does CO2 levels.
36
Solar activity (left panel), not CO2 levels
(right panel), highly correlate with Arctic
temperature anomalies
37
Solar Activity Modulation of Centennial-to-Multide
cadal-scale Changes in Indian Monsoon Rainfall
and Tropical Circulation(Neff et al., Nature,
2001)
Another solar correlation
Solar Activity
2000 years
Climate
Solar Activity
200 years (high resolution)
Climate
38
A positive and significant correlation between
our SST record from the North Icelandic Shelf and
reconstructed solar irradiance, together with
modeling results, supports the hypothesis that
solar forcing is an important constituent of
natural climate variability in the northern North
Atlantic region.
Icelandic winter SST
solar insolation
Icelandic summer SST
solar insolation
Jiang et al. (2005) Geology, vol. 33, 73-76
39
Solar variability correlated to temperature
variability in Central Alps on multidecadal and
centennial scale
proxy of temperature from a staglamite in
Spannagel cave in Central Alps
14C proxy of solar variability
(Mangini et al. 2005, EPSL, vol. 235, 741-751)
40
Solar variability correlated to past temperature
changes in Beijing, China
Magnetically active and brighter Sun
Sun
Magnetically inactive and fainter Sun
Estimated temperature in China
M. Tan et al. 2004 E. Bard et al., 2000
41
Simon Says
42
Observations Say
The observed rise in CO2 concentration lies at
the low end of the IPCC projections. The impact
of the emissions reductions under the Kyoto
Protocol is negligible.
IPCC Projections of Future CO2 Concentration
43
Slide 42 Background Indeed, atmospheric levels
of carbon dioxide have been increasing, likely
since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.
However, the recent rate of increase (during the
past 25-30 years or so, the time of greatest
human carbon dioxide emissions) has been fairly
steady indicating that components of the earths
natural systems are absorbing an increasing
amount of carbon dioxide each year. Many of the
processes behind this increasing natural carbon
dioxide sink are poorly understood and thus
poorly modeled. Thus, instead of models of the
future behavior of atmospheric carbon dioxide
levels (which are tied to the future emission
ratesan unknown quantity), it is best to turn to
observationswhich fully and correctly integrate
all processesto best understand the course of
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in the
near future. If we extend the trend of
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations
established during the past 30 years into the
future, we find that the build-up of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere progresses along the
low end of the projections made by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in
their 2001 Third Assessment Report. Associated
with low-end carbon dioxide increases are only
modest temperature increases and modest sea level
rise. Further, it has been shown (Wigley, 1998)
that emissions reductions efforts, such as the
Kyoto Protocol, would have negligible effects on
the rate of future carbon dioxide increase. But
surely, they would have negative economic impacts.
44
The graphic below illustrates temperatures from
the famed Vostok, Antarctica ice core over the
past 400,000. What is so dangerous about being
2C lower than the peak warmth of all four
preceding interglacials?
45
Reconstructed CO2 mixing ratios based on stomatal
frequency counts on Tsuga heterophylla needles,
presented in the graphic below, clearly indicate
that atmospheric CO2 concentrations have reached
above 300 ppm eight times in the past 1200 years.
Source Kouwenberg et al. 2005. Geology 33
33-36.
46
In addition, McElwain et al. (2002, Journal of
Quaternary Science 17 21-29) derived another
high-resolution CO2 history based on stomatal
frequency counts, spanning the period of time
from approximately 13,000 to 10,500 years ago,
and also found numerous times when the
atmospheric CO2 concentration was above 300 ppm.
47
Simons world upside-down?
Can we demonstrate that greenhouse gas rises
precede temperature rises, thus inferring
temperature as driving CO2 levels?
48
Historic CO2 and temperature correlation is more
complicated than Mr. Simons says
The reason why the relationship is complicated
is because peer-reviewed scientific studies
clearly demonstrate a decoupling between historic
temperatures and atmospheric CO2. Contrary to
Mr. Simons inference that changes in CO2 drive
changes in temperature, real world data indicate
CO2 is a follower, not a leader, of climate
change. For example, Indermuhle et al. found
that changes in atmospheric CO2 lagged changes in
temperature by 900 to 1,200 years during the most
recent glacial-interglacial transition
(Geophysical Research Letters 27
735-73) Fischer et al. reported that air
temperature rose 400 to 1,000 years before CO2 in
all three of the last glacial terminations
(Science 283 1712-1714)
49
Furthermore, Fischer et al. also reported
instances in which (1) atmospheric CO2 values
remained unchanged while air temperatures dropped
and (2) atmospheric CO2 content dropped while air
temperature remained unchanged or rose (Fischer
et al., Science 283 1712-1714), while Steig
reported instances in the historical record where
atmospheric CO2 values rose while air
temperatures dropped (Steig, Science 286
1485-1487) If CO2 was the all-important driver
of climate, then none of these relationships
would appear in the real world data but they do!
50
Can an effect appear before its cause?
Historic CO2 levels follow temperature changes,
not precede them!
Ice core samples indicate there is an average of
400 -1600 years lag of cause after effect.
51
Historic CO2 levels and temperature changes are
not well correlated for the entire Northern
Hemisphere either.
52
A CO2 rise and USA temperature fluctuation
mismatch
Period of lower human CO2 release
USA temperatures were high before 1940 when CO2
levels were lower, and then cooled through the
1970s when CO2 levels were far higher.
Period of higher human CO2 release
53
National Academy of Sciences (2002)Abrupt
Climate Changes Are Not Only Possible, But Likely
Simon Says

• Recent scientific evidence shows that major and
  widespread climate changes have occurred with
  startling speed.
• Abrupt climate changes were especially common
  when the climate system was being forced to
  change rapidly.
• Greenhouse warming and other human alterations
  of the Earth may increase the possibility of
  large, abrupt, and unwelcome regional or global
  climatic events.
• Possible non-linear responses to global warming
• Changed ocean circulation -- Rapid glacier
  melting
• Changed patterns of rainfall and drought
• Decline in forest health

54
Observations Say
National Academy of Sciences (2002)Abrupt
Climate Changes Are Not Only Possible, But
LikelyThis statement is completely out of
context. The NAS merely reports that scientific
research into the past climates of earth has
found that climate is not static and smooth, but
that it is variable and can jump around quite a
bit. They write The earths climate system is
characterized by change on all time and space
scales, and some of the changes are abrupt even
relative to the short time scales of relevance to
human societies. Paleoclimatic records show that
large, widespread, abrupt climate changes have
affected much or all of the earth repeatedly over
the last ice-age cycle as well as earlierand
these changes sometimes have occurred in periods
as short as a few yearsThere is no reason to
believe that abrupt climate changes will not
occur again. Thus, it is likely that in the
future, just as has been the case in the past
(prior to any human influences), that the earths
climate (primarily at the regional level) will
naturally abruptly fluctuate. When and where
these fluctuations may occur is entirely unknown.
Human activity has not been tied to them.