Draft Slides for WG3

1
Slides for Communicating IPCC
IPCC Working Group III Summary For Policymakers
Mitigation of Climate Change

• May 4, 2007
  

www.ucsusa.org
2
Figure Courtesy of IPCC
3
The Call to Immediate Action Options for
Reducing Emissions Economic Considerations Roles
of Developed and Developing Countries Policy
Structures
4

• Global emissions will increase 25-90 by 2030
  (compared to 2000 levels), unless we take
  immediate action.

Source IPCC Climate Change 2007 Mitigation of
Climate ChangeSPM
5

• If the world reduces emissions of heat trapping
  gases to 50 to 85 of 2000 levels by mid
  century, we could prevent dangerous warming by
  limiting temperature increase to about 2C above
  pre- industrial levels.

Source IPCC 2007 Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation and VulnerabilitySPM
6
The Call to Immediate Action Options for
Reducing Emissions Economic Considerations Roles
of Developed and Developing Countries Policy
Structures
7

• The good news is that there are plenty of
  currently available and affordable (low-hanging
  fruit) technologies and policies that can level
  off and even
• reduce global warming emissions.

Source IPCC 2007 Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation and VulnerabilitySPM
8

• Renewable energy is a win-win-win. Besides
  fighting global warming, renewables create jobs,
  enhance energy security, and clean the air.

Source IPCC 2007 Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation and VulnerabilitySPM
9

• Technology exists today to begin reducing
  emissions from cars, trucks, and other vehicles,
  which contribute a major share of global warming
  pollution. Growth in the sector will make net
  reductions challenging, but vitally important.

Source IPCC 2007 Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation and VulnerabilitySPM
10

• It is both cheaper and faster to improve energy
  efficiency to meet growing demand than to build
  typical power plants.

Source IPCC 2007 Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation and VulnerabilitySPM
11

• Bio-fuels have the potential to play a role in
  reducing global warming emissions from the
  transportation sector, especially as high fossil
  fuel prices make these fuels more
  cost-competitive.

Source IPCC 2007 Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation and VulnerabilitySPM
12

• Dirty fuels will also become more cost-effective
  when fossil fuel prices rise. Liquid coal,
  synthetic fuels and other high-carbon oil sources
  will lead to significant increases in global
  warming emissions. The high costs to mitigate
  climate change impact of carbon-laden fuels must
  be considered up front.

Source IPCC 2007 Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation and VulnerabilitySPM
13
The IPCC mentions that nuclear power is one
option for achieving emission reductions.
However, they note that constraints remain due to
safety, weapons proliferation and waste disposal
concerns.
From U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational
Safety Health Administration
Source IPCC 2007 Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation and VulnerabilitySPM
14
The Call to Immediate Action Options for
Reducing Emissions Economic Considerations Roles
of Developed and Developing Countries Policy
Structures
15

• The costs of addressing global warming could be
  much smaller than the costs of inaction.
• o Based on Table SPM.4 (p.15), for trajectories
  towards stabilization levels between 445 and 535
  ppmv CO2eq costs are lower than 3 global GDP
  loss, i.e. the reduction of average annual GDP
  growth rates is less than 0.12.
• o This refers to loss in GDP in 2030 compared to
  the baseline, i.e. in 2030 the growth in GDP
  would be 3 less with mitigation costs than
  without them.
• o From table SPM.6 (p. 26), in 2050, GDP loss
  would be lower than 5.5 and the reduction of
  average annual GDP growth rates is less than
  0.12.

Source IPCC 2007 Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation and VulnerabilitySPM
16
The Call to Immediate Action Options for
Reducing Emissions Economic Considerations Roles
of Developed and Developing Countries Policy
Structures
17

• Emissions from some developing countries are
  growing rapidly, and curtailing them will need to
  be part of the solution.
• However, the U.S. and other developed countries
  bear a historical responsibility for most of the
  emissions in the atmosphere

Source IPCC 2007 Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation and VulnerabilitySPM
18

• Currently, they still have a much higher per
  capita emissions than developing countries and
  developing countries have much lower incomes and
  capacities to undertake mitigation and adaptation
  activities.
• Therefore, the U.S. and other developed nations
  must lead the world in reducing emissions.

From City of Bradford Metropolitan District
Council, UK
From United Visual Artists
Source IPCC 2007 Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation and VulnerabilitySPM
19

• An additional way developing nations can help
  fight global warming is by slowing emissions from
  tropical deforestation, which currently amount to
  about 20 of total global emissions.

From Greenpeace
Source IPCC 2007 Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation and VulnerabilitySPM
20

• Unfortunately, a certain amount of warming is
  already unavoidable due to past emissions (WG2
  SPM). As the WG 1 and 2 SPMs made clear,
  developing countries will face a disproportionate
  burden of the costs of climate change.
  Investments for climate adaptation must be an
  integral part of international climate change
  policy.

Source IPCC 2007 Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation and VulnerabilitySPM
21

• The WG3 report also highlights the importance of
  international cooperation in tackling the
  challenge of global warming.

Source IPCC 2007 Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation and VulnerabilitySPM
22
The Call to Immediate Action Options for
Reducing Emissions Economic Considerations Roles
of Developed and Developing Countries Policy
Structures
23

• Standards, mandates and regulations can help
  ensure that we achieve the emission reductions
  needed to prevent dangerous warming.

Source IPCC 2007 Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation and VulnerabilitySPM
24

• Carbon taxes and marketable carbon permits are
  cost-effective ways to reduce global warming
  pollution, especially if revenues generated are
  used to invest in clean technologies and replace
  existing carbon-inducing tax schemes. However,
  carbon taxes alone cannot guarantee emission
  reductions.

Source IPCC 2007 Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation and VulnerabilitySPM
25

• Voluntary programs, while they have some
  benefits, are not enough on their own to ensure
  emission reductions below business as usual
  levels.

Source IPCC 2007 Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation and VulnerabilitySPM
26
UCS Resources on IPCC AR4
IPCC Background www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/scie
nce/the-ipcc.html Powerpoint presentations, web
seminars, and highlight brochures http//www.ucsu
sa.org/ssi/ipcc Regional Climate
Impactshttp//www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/scien
ce/regional-effects-of-global.html Questions
ssi_at_ucsusa.org
27

• THANK YOU!

28
U.S. Global Warming Policy Solutions

• We need a comprehensive approach that ensures
  needed emission reductions and spurs clean energy
  technology deployment.
• Three Critical Federal Policies
• Establish a mandatory policy that ensures
  emissions reductions of at least 80 below 2000
  levels by 2050.
• Establish a strong Renewable Electricity
  Standard.
• Increase Vehicle Fuel Economy Standards and
  low-carbon fuels for cars and light trucks.

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Long Term Emission Reduction Targets

• Must stabilize atmospheric carbon concentrations
  at 450 parts per million to avoid worst effects
  of global warming.
• Means cutting global emissions in half by 2050,
  more in U.S.
• Bills introduced by Senator Sanders (I-VT) and
  Rep. Waxman (D-CA) would reduce U.S. emissions to
  80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.
• Both bills call for a greater reliance on clean,
  renewable energy sources, improved energy
  efficiency, and clean cars.

Alden Meyer (center, second row), director of
strategy and policy at UCS, applauds at the
introduction of the Senate bill last session.
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Other Leaders Supporting 80 Target

• 80 target is consistent with those announced by
  British Prime Minister Tony Blair, California
  Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, New Mexico
  Governor Bill Richardson, and six Northeastern
  states.

\

• UCSs Peter Frumhoff stands to the left of
  Governor Schwarzenegger as he commits to the 80
  percent reduction target that was later passed as
  AB 32.

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Growing Support for 80 Target
Bernard Sanders (I-VT) Global Warming Pollution
Reduction Act (S.309) 12 Cosponsors

• Boxer (D-CA)
• Akaka (D-HI)
• Dodd (D-CT)
• Feingold (D-WI)
• Inouye (D-HI)
• Kennedy (D-MA)

• Lautenberg (D-NJ)
• Leahy (D-VT)
• Menendez (D-NJ)
• Reed (D-RI)
• Whitehouse (D-RI)

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Waxman Safe Climate Act (HR 1590) 137 Cosponsors
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Renewable Electricity Standard Campaign History

• Senate has thrice passed a Renewable Electricity
  Standard (RES) requiring utilities to obtain 10
  percent of their electricity from renewable
  energy sources such as wind, solar, and bioenergy
  by 2020.

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Benefits of an RES

• A 2004 UCS analysis found that a strong 20 by
  2020 RES would
• Reduce global warming pollution by 15 percent
  from business as usual.
• Create billions in new farm income.
• Save consumers tens of billions of dollars.
• Create hundreds of thousands of jobs.

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House Reps Tom Udall (D-NM) and Todd Platts
(R-PA) 20 by 2020 RES (HR 969)

• HR 969 Currently has 73 Cosponsors

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Senate RES Prospects
Senator Jeff Bingman (D-NM) is Chair of the
Energy Committee and a long-time RES champion.
He will work to pass a stong 15 standard this
session.
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Reducing Vehicle Emissions Senate

• Diane Feinstein (D-CA)Ten-in-Ten Act (S. 357)
  Increases fuel economy to 37 mpg by 2017. 12
  Cosponsors
• Other senators have introduced or cosponsored
  fuel economy bills, including several former CAFE
  opponents such as Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK),
  Senator Joseph Biden (D-DE) and Senator Byron
  Dorgan (D-ND). 

• Lieberman, Joseph I. (D-CT)
• Menendez, Robert (D-NJ)
• Nelson, Bill (D-FL)
• Reed, Jack (D-RI)
• Sanders, Bernard (D-VT)
• Snowe, Olympia J. (D-ME)

• Akaka, Daniel K. (D-HI)
• Boxer, Barbara (D-CA)
• Cantwell, Maria (D-WA)
• Dodd, Christopher J. (D-CT)
• Inouye, Daniel K. (D-HI)
• Lautenberg, Frank R. (D-NJ)

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Reducing Vehicle Emissions House

• Ed Markey (D-MA)- Todd Platts (R-PA) Fuel Economy
  Reform Act (HR 1506) Increases fuel economy to
  37 mpg by 2017.
• Currently has 113 cosponsors. Original cosponsors
  include Hilda Solis (D-CA), Mike Castle (R-DE),
  and Bill Young (R-FL) to introduce H.R. 1506, the
  Fuel Economy Reform Act. 

Todd Platts 
Ed Markey 
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Will Congress Pass Comprehensive Climate Policy
This Session?

• Polling shows that energy security is among top
  interests of U.S. voters, and global warming is a
  growing concern.
• Congressional leaders are emerging from both
  parties, and not just the usual suspects.
• BUT, Bush administration has yet to support
  mandatory emission reductions.

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Looking Ahead2008 Presidential Election

• Need to ensure that ALL candidates of ALL parties
  have a plan to address global warming.

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Renewable Fuels

• Biofuels continue to receive broad support, with
  early action likely to focus on increasing the
  renewable fuel standard (RFS).
• UCS is working with both the environmental
  community and agricultural representatives to
  ensure that global warming and other
  sustainability criteria are considered as part of
  any effort to expand biofuels use.
• Although biofuels can be an important tool to
  help reduce our dependence on oil, if not
  carefully managed biofuels could have unintended
  consequences.
• By building support within the agriculture
  community for low-carbon renewable fuels and for
  smart management practices, we can help to ensure
  that the promise of biofuels is met.

42
Renewable Fuel Standard

• Several legislative proposals to increase the
  Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) have been
  introduced, with the Senate likely to act first
  on Senator Bingaman's (D-NM) proposal to raise
  the annual requirement for renewable fuels from
  7.5 billion gallons to 36 billion gallons.
• Unfortunately, the Senator's bill contains few
  protections for the environment, and no
  requirement that biofuels reduce global warming
  emissions.
• Although the most contentious issue is likely to
  be attempts to add liquid coal fuel to the
  standard, we are working with our champions
  to add in global warming and sustainability
  standards.

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Low Carbon Fuel Standard

• Senator Feinstein (D-CA), along with Senators
  Collins and Snowe (both R-ME), introduced a bill
  that would require a reduction in global warming
  emissions from fuels, by implementing a federal
  low carbon fuel standard like the one recently
  adopted in California.
• This would require fuel suppliers beginning in
  2015 to increase the percentage of low-carbon
  fuels biodiesel, ethanol, hydrogen,
  electricity, and others in the motor vehicle
  fuel supply with a goal of reducing emissions
  from motor vehicle fuels by 10 percent below
  projected levels by 2030. The bill also includes
  a mandate to reduce tailpipe emissions 30 percent
  below 2002 levels by 2016.
• We will continue to work with Senator Feinstein
  and others to ensure that our fuel policies
  maximize reductions in global warming pollution.

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UCS Resources on IPCC AR4
IPCC Background www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/sci
ence/the-ipcc.html Powerpoint presentations,
web seminars, and highlight brochures http//www.
ucsusa.org/ssi/ipcc Regional Climate
Impactshttp//www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/scien
ce/regional-effects-of-global.html Questions
ssi_at_ucsusa.org