Oil Sands Investment Under Uncertainty

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Oil Sands Investment Under Uncertainty

• Michael Fujda

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Decision to Install CCS Equipment on Gasifiers
under Uncertainty

• Previous studies focus on Coal power generation
  PC vs. IGCC
• Build CCS now with uncertain carbon future
• Do nothing and build CCS when carbon a certainty
• Pre-invest now to enable easier retrofit later
• Assess cost of regulatory uncertainty

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Key Questions

• Parameters of Carbon Prices
• Stringency?
• Growing over time?
• Date of implementation?
• Probabilities around different scenarios?
• Use EU ETS data?
• Carbon Price Impact on Oil Gas Prices
• Adjust prices based on carbon content?
• Adjust based on substitution?
• Other items to look at
• Storage and Pipe costs?
• EOR revenue?