CliC CLIVAR SSG15

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Climate and Cryosphere Project (CliC) NAS
Climate Research Committee Fall 2007
Meeting November 5-6 2007 Washington, D.C Dr.
Barry Goodison, Chair, CliC SSG
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WCRP Climate and Cryosphere Project CliC Goal
and Themes

• Principal Goal
• To assess and quantify the impacts that climatic
  variability and change have on components of the
  cryosphere and the consequences of these impacts
  for the climate system.
• In addressing this aim, CliC also seeks to
  determine the
• stability of the global cryosphere
• CliC focuses its activities through the following
  themes (previous CPAs)
• Terrestrial cryosphere and hydro-meteorology of
  cold regions (TCHM)
• Ice Masses and Sea Level (IMSL)
• Marine Cryosphere and Climate (MarC)
• Global Prediction of the Cryosphere (GPC)

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The cryosphere collectively describes elements of
the earth system containing water in its frozen
state and includes sea ice, lake and river ice,
snow cover, solid precipitation, glaciers, ice
caps, ice sheets, permafrost and seasonally
frozen ground. The cryosphere exists at all
latitudes and in about one hundred countries.
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Media and Policy Perspectives Socio-economic
Impacts
Inuit say spring in the Arctic is becoming more
dangerous
No turning back on arctic warming
Warning for the North Polar bears could face
extinction as global climate change warms the
Arctic
Thawing permafrost, GHG emission and coastal
erosion
Melting Ice sheets, glaciers and global sea level
rise
Tourism at risk
Disappearing Glaciers Menace Water Supplies
Farmers worried about absence of snow
Damage to buildings and infrastructure
Floods feared as glaciers melt
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Cryospheric Information and Knowledge
Importance of the Cryosphere for Society
Disasters Health Energy Climate Water
Weather Ecosystems Agriculture Biodiversity
Transport
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CliC-Led Activities Contributing to Advancing the
Goals of USGCRP/CCSP (1)

• Goal 1 Extend knowledge of the Earths past and
  present climate and environment, including its
  natural variability, and improve understanding of
  the causes of observed changes
• Coordinate and facilitate climate network in
  Polar Regions to monitor changes in the Arctic
  climate (CliC OPP/IGOS cryo, IPAB, with ICARPII,
  ACP/SAON)
• Facilitate data sets for future Arctic reanalysis
  through IGOS-Cryosphere (CliC GPC, MarC, OPP,
  IPY/GIIPSY, SAON).
• Participate in new field activities in Greenland
  (NEEM ice core) to derive past climate
  variability (CliC IMSL).
• Participate/lead in IPY projects on the State and
  Fate of the Cryosphere
• Creation of regional cryospheric data sets using
  regional capacity building and data sharing to
  assess climate trends as state and fate of the
  cryosphere (Asia-CliC)
• Establish WMO Global Cryosphere Watch
• Goal 2 Improve understanding of the forces
  bringing about changes in the Earths climate and
  related systems
• Initiate hydrological balance, freshwater fluxes,
  and dynamic response of ice sheet studies and
  assessments in Polar Regions (CliC TCHM, IMSK,
  IPY, ICARPII).
• Coordinate cryosphere program in central Asia,
  with focus on snow, glacier, permafrost and water
  supply through Asia-CliC (CliC TCHM).
• Cryospheric influences on high latitude carbon
  cycle (CliC TCHM, with ESSP Carbon)

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CliC-Led Activities Contributing to Advancing the
Goals of USGCRP/CCSP (2)

• Goal 3 Reduce uncertainty in projections of how
  the Earths climate and environmental systems may
  change in the future
• Facilitate and coordinate modeling and in-situ
  observations of cryosphere response to accelerate
  warming in Polar Regions (CliC IMSL, MarC,
  ASPeCt, TCHM, GPC, ICARPII).
• Contribute and coordinate CCSP SAP 3.4 on abrupt
  climate change (cryosphere chapter).
• Contribution to much more reliable sea-level rise
  projections (IMSL)
• Increased knowledge on stability of ice shelves
  and sheets and associated modelling (IMSL, with
  SCAR and IASC)
• Goal 4 Understand the sensitivity and
  adaptability of different natural and managed
  systems to climate and associated global changes
• Incorporation of traditional knowledge in
  understanding climate and cryosphere variability
  and change (CliC IPY)
• increased understanding of freshwater and sea ice
  responses to changing climate in context of
  economic development, eg transportation (TCHM,
  MarC)
• Goal 5 Explore the uses and identify the limits
  of evolving knowledge to manage risks and
  opportunities related to climate variability and
  change
• CLIPS in polar regions climate product
  generation, user liaison and training (IPY, with
  WCRP)

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CRC Questions

• 1. Funding
• Yes, operating resources are scarce for an
  international, global program like WCRP/CliC (IOC
  reduced over time ICSU flow through from
  countries WMO had zero nominal budget growth
  for over a decade contributions in US)
• Future funding will likely be affected by WMO
  restructuring and/or change in IGBP/WCRP
  relationship.
• Yes, core projects have been significantly
  affected. We cannot be strong partners or
  scientific leaders if we can't put our share into
  meetings that we lead or are part of, either with
  national agencies or external scientific
  partners, let alone initiate new ventures that
  would require funding. For CliC, our budget
  evolved from ACSYS and never recognized that we
  are a global program. CliC is co-sponsored by
  SCAR, but that means only limited funding and
  there is no guaranteed annual contribution from
  them.
• Project offices are funded by countries - how
  secure is that funding in the long term? These
  contributions are a significant of the WCRP
  budget. The CliC office in Norway depends on
  funding from NPI and NRC, and there is a desire
  for the arrangement to continue, but it is not
  yet finalized.
• 2. Leadership
• I believe the JSC is more active now and that is
  positive for us
• With JPS staff changes, it is more difficult for
  projects to have direct contact/support from
  Geneva
• There has been downloading to project offices -
  they were not staffed to do the extra tasks. For
  CliC, it means other things get delayed.
• Telecons with the offices is a positive step
• Future depends on new Director and ultimate WCRP
  structure

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CRC Questions

• 3. Coordination
• Although project offices have regular
  communication, project interaction still has room
  to grow. This was happening when we had Chairs
  and Directors meetings and there was time for
  CDs to discuss areas of co-operation and
  cross-cuts.
• The projects are invited to other's SSG and
  provide an update. The Task Force on Seasonal
  Prediction is the direct route used by CliC to
  interact on the prediction issue with the
  projects. It participates in WGCM. For ice sheets
  and modelling, the interaction has been
  especially through the sea level rise crosscut
  The current follow-on after IPCC Sydney is a new
  joint ice sheet modelling initiative with SCAR
  and IASC.
• A recent workshop to determine priorities for
  theme on Global Prediction of the Cryosphere will
  help set the future wrt modelling needs
• WCRP-WWRP - really this is pushed by WWRP.
  However in the ICARPII process, CliC on behalf of
  WCRP co-ordinated preparation of the chapter on
  modelling of climate and weather in the arctic.
  The chapter explicitly includes the concept of
  seamless prediction and that COPES (WCRP) and
  THORPEX (WWRP) are the most appropriate
  mechanisms to advance improvements in modelling
  in the arctic.

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CRC Questions

• 4. Crosscuts
• CliC is responsible for coordinating WCRP IPY
  crosscut
• Given the nature of international selection and
  funding for IPY, WCRP can try to co-ordinate some
  activities, but expect many of the appropriate
  syntheses will occur after the 2 year observation
  period.
• Cryosphere is a crosscut. Re IGBP, they chose not
  to have a specific high latitude project because
  CliC Science and Co-ordination plan included many
  of their interests.
• Since the crosscuts require funding, those funds
  are not available for the projects themselves
• COPES provided a framework for crosscut
  activities and hence they do offer a mechanism to
  address key issues. Sea level, precipitation in
  cold climate regions, regional predictions/downsca
  ling are issues that need cooperation
• 5. WMO Reorganization
• Climate is split apart - some to observations,
  WCP largely to new Climate and Water group, and
  WCRP into research group with WWRP. So climate
  interaction will be even more difficult as leads
  for these new groups may not have climate as a
  priority
• Impact will only be seen after re-org implemented
• Although the 4 bureaus are meant to bring groups
  together that have common goals, there will still
  be a real need for organizational crosscut
• Future of how we conduct/organize observing and
  field experiments is unclear.
• CliC is holding SSG in Geneva to initiate
  increased interaction with WMO programs

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CRC Questions

• 6. Other Activities
• WCC3 how does CLIVAR final conference link to
  this?
• IPY came upon the scene after the US CSSP
  strategic plan was created. How does CRC adjust
  their priorities to such international
  initiatives. US has been slow in funding.
• CliC is very active in working with developing
  countries, especially China and the Asian region
  to determine state and fate of the cryosphere.
  Asia-CliC brings together 15 countries to
  co-operate as they never have before. Led by
  these countries within CliC framework and
  strategic direction. Seeking funding
  opportunities, START?
• CliC is also very active in working with other
  organizations with cryospheric/cold climate
  interests, including SCAR, IASC, Arctic Council
  AMAP/CEG, and through the new proposed Global
  Cryosphere Watch there will be an opportunity to
  work with developed and developing countries.
• For ESSP, CliC had some co-operation with Carbon
  project when seeking funding for permafrost
  workshops, but limited lately. Not yet
  established link with water. MAIRS is a regional
  ESSP project, and CliC has initiated discussion
  to look for areas of cooperation

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IPY 2007-2008 SCOPE OF THE SCIENCE FOR IPY AN
URGENT NEED FOR POLAR RESEARCH

• SHRINKING SNOW AND ICE RAPID CHANGE IN POLAR
  REGIONS
• GLOBAL LINKAGES INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE POLES
  AND THE REST OF THE EARTH
• NEIGHBOURS IN THE NORTH
• A SENSE OF DISCOVERY
• Observational Initiatives
• Data Management
• Education, Outreach Communication

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WCRP-affiliated IPY proposals (33)
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IPY Legacy Observing Systems

• Arctic
• Sustained Arctic Observing Network (SAON)
• Arctic Ocean Observing System (iAOOS)

• Antarctic
• Pan-Antarctic Observing System (PANTOS)
• Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS)

• Bipolar
• IGOS-Cryosphere Observing System

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Legacy Establishment of sustained observation
and monitoring networks
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www.arcticobserving.org
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• Guiding Principles
• Arctic system and global connections Build on
  existing networks
• Pan-Arctic view and comprehensive Arctic
  coverage
• Coordination, collaboration and communication
• Data and information standards and management
• Inclusiveness

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• Sustaining Arctic Observations Key Questions
• What Arctic observing sites, systems and
  networks (activities) currently exist?
• What spatial, temporal and disciplinary gaps
  exist?
• How will gaps be filled and the entire effort
  sustained?
• How are these activities to be coordinated and
  integrated?
• How are free, open and timely access to data to
  be achieved?

?
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Global Observing
www.arcticobserving.org
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Theme Initiatives

• Ice Mass/Sea Level (IMSL) (Koni Steffen)
• Report from Sea Level Workshop from Paris meeting
  in summer 2006
• International Larsen C project (US, Chile, UK,
  Netherlands)
• stability of the ice sheet along west coast of
  Greenland with in-situ, aircraft, satellite and
  models (Denmark, Switzerland, the US, and
  others).
• follow-on after IPCC Sydney is a new joint ice
  sheet modelling initiative with SCAR and IASC.
• Marine Cryosphere (MarC) (Tony Worby)
• In Antarctic, the SIMBA (Sea Ice Mass Balance of
  Antarctic) program was conducted by the US in
  Oct-Nov in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Sea
  region, while the SIPEX (Sea Ice Physics and
  Ecosystem eXperiment) program was carried out by
  Australians in East Antarctica near 110-130E.
  Both made extensive in situ observations of sea
  ice and snow cover properties, and contributed to
  the cal/val of ICESat.
• Sea Ice town hall meeting planned for Fall AGU in
  Dec 2007
• Global Prediction of Cryosphere (GPC) (John
  Turner)
• Workshop to
• review ability to predict the evolution of the
  cryosphere over the 21st century at the global
  scale
• identify gaps in our current understanding
• propose research activities in the framework of
  CliC.
• 2nd Workshop on Recent High Latitude Climate
  Change, Seattle

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• Working Group 7 Terrestrial Cryosphere
  Hydrology
• Terry Prowse
• a focus on CliC Terrestrial Cryo theme
• (with IASC, EPB, AOSB, AC/AMAP)
• IPY Arctic Hydra
• freshwater flux

Working Group 9 Modeling and Predicting Arctic
Weather and Climate Klaus Dethloff Weather
Prediction in Polar Regions Seasonal to
Interannual Predictability for the high
latitudes Arctic climate projections for
2025-2035 and until 2100 New Arctic climate
models
facilitate integration of model output and
observations and production of high quality
datasets
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Report
Preface Foreword Executive Summary to be
amended 1. The Cryosphere Theme 2. Applications
of Cryospheric Data 3. Terrestrial Snow 4. Sea
Ice 5. Lake and River Ice 6. Ice Sheets 7.
Glaciers and Ice Caps 8. Surface Temperature and
Albedo of Snow and Ice 9. Permafrost and
Seasonally Frozen Ground 10. Solid
Precipitation 11. An Integrated and Coordinated
Observing System 12. Implementation App. A.
References App. B. Observational Capabilities and
Requirements App. C. Satellite Missions in
Support of the Cryosphere Theme App. D.
Acronyms App. E. Contributors
- Final document approval IGOS-P-14 May
2007 - IGOS being transferred to GEO - Report
being published by WMO
Team Jeff Key (Chair)Mark Drinkwater
(Vice-Chair) Don Hinsman (link to IGOSP) Ken
Jezek and 50 contributors from 14 countries

http//igos-cryosphere.org/
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Ch 11 An Integrated and Coordinated System
Related polar observing systems
CliC, Arctic-HYCOS
CLIVAR, CliC, SCAR,
IASC, AOSB, CliC,
Arctic-HYDRA
CASO
iAOOS
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• Cryosphere  
• is undergoing dramatic changes, mostly as a
  consequence of climate change, and provides best
  indicator for it
• is one of the most under-sampled elements within
  the climate system
• is important (water, climate, transport, etc.)

• User-requirement product driven
• Has a 10 year time frame
• Goal 1 resources for observations
• Goal 2 stronger commitment by observing system
  operators to sustain the observing system
• Goal 3 better coordination

Approved by IGOSP-11, Rome, Italy, 27 May 2004
WMO Congress-XV (May 2007) supported IPY/CliC
proposal to establish a GLOBAL CRYOSPHERE WATCH
(GCW)
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Global Cryosphere Watch A WMO Initiative The
15th WMO Congress (May 2007) supported the
proposal made in the IPY deliberations (and
supported by many countries thereafter) from the
CliC Scientific Steering Group Chairman, Dr B.
Goodison (Canada), to establish a Global
Cryosphere Watch (GCW).

• GCW would act as a component of the WMO
  Integrated Global Observing and Information
  Systems (WIGOS and WIS) and GCOS network, like
  the Global Atmosphere Watch, and cover all
  aspects of the cryosphere.
• unite key stations/sites working on a coherent
  agreed program on monitoring of changes in all
  element so the cryosphere, producing valuable
  long-term records, covering key areas of the
  globe with cryospheric observations.
• intergovernmental mechanism for supporting key
  cryospheric in situ and remote sensing
  observations implementing the recommendations of
  the IGOS Cryosphere Theme
• Work with, and build on existing programs, eg
  GTN-G, GTN-P
• one-stop portal for certified cryosphere data
  and products/information
• GCW is also required to ensure better quality
  of data and metadata, comparison of algorithms,
  agreement of key environmental indicators.

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GLOBAL CRYOSPHERE WATCH

• Proposed mission would include
• To implement the IGOS Cryosphere Theme
• To make reliable, comprehensive observations of
  the elements of the cryosphere through an
  integrated observing approach on global and
  regional scales, in collaboration with other
  international programmes and agencies
• To provide the scientific community with the
  means to predict the future state of the
  cryosphere

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GLOBAL CRYOSPHERE WATCH..2

• To facilitate assessment of changes in the
  cryosphere and their impact, and to use this
  information to aid the detection of climate
  change
• To organize assessments of changes in regional
  and global components of the cryosphere to
  support decision making and policy development in
  support of formulating environmental policy.
• To provide authoritative information on the
  current state and projected fate of the
  cryosphere for use by the media, public, decision
  and policy makers

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GLOBAL CRYOSPHERE WATCH

• GCW would require collaboration among WMO
  programmes, as the cryosphere directly affects
  weather, climate and water.
• This initiative would link to the WMO Integrated
  Observing System, EC Working Group on Antarctic
  Meteorology, scientific programmes of WCRP, WCP,
  AREP, WWRP and Commissions including CIMO, CCl,
  CHy, CAS.
• External partners are numerous and essential
  build on those relationships, e.g. space
  agencies, World Data Centers for Glaciology
• Ideally, data and products would be produced
  nationally or regionally - how can WMO Regional
  Climate Centres contribute?

IPY legacy, partnerships, cross-cutting, We are
in feasibility stage
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A New Opportunity
WMO Initiative Global Cryospheric Watch
Thank you