Groupthink and Risky Shift/Group Polarization

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Groupthink and Risky Shift/Group Polarization

• By Mr Daniel Hansson

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Observation

• Observe the group on the following behaviour
• Leadership in group?
• To what extent do group members agree in their
  decisions?
• Any group polarization or conformity?
• How could the group have improved the decision
  process?

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Risky Shift/Group polarization

• Risky shift The tendency for the group decision
  to involve greater risk than the average of the
  decisions made by individuals

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Empirical support Risky Shift

• Bray and Noble (1978), a highly authoritarian
  person sentencing a guilty defendant to a prison
  sentence who individually recommends 56 years (on
  average) recommends 68 years (on average)
  following deliberation in a group of highly
  authoritarian peers and the low authoritarian
  decreases the sentence from 38 years
  pre-deliberation to 29 years after deliberation
  with a group of like-minded peers.
• Stoner (1961) found that in considering moral
  dilemmas, a group's decision will be
  significantly more risky than the mean decision
  of the members of the group prior to the group
  interaction. Stoner found that the individuals'
  decisions after leaving the group tended towards
  greater risk than earlier decisions

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Evaluation Risky Shift

• Subsequent research has lead to the conclusion
  that, rather than the group making riskier
  decisions all the time, the initial leanings of
  the individuals is accentuated by group
  discussion. For instance, if the only way out of
  a difficult situation is to do something risky,
  the effect of the group is to advocate greater
  risk. If, however, the current situation is
  satisfactory and action would be risky, the
  effect of the group is to advocate caution.

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Group think (Janis 1982)

• Group feels invulnerable and optimistic
• The group comes to a decision without allowing
  members to express doubts about it
• The group deny outside information that may
  undermine the decision
• The group believes the decision is unanimous

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Explanations of Groupthink

• Occurs in cohesive groups with authoritarian
  leaders
• Group members do not disagree out of fear of
  lowering group morale or fear of being rejected

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Strengths of Groupthink model

• Valuable insights of historical incidents
  (Challenger fiasco, invasion of Pig bay
• Some empirical support (Janis and Tetlock
  historical case studies)
• Research high in validity (Content analysis of
  records of real political decisions)

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Weakness of groupthink theory

• Limitations of research (generalisability
  problem, content analysis may be subjective)