A Dying Creed?

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A Dying Creed?

• The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal
  Capitalism

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The Rise of Demography

• Where does demography fit in to social theory
  (vs. economy, culture, politics)?
• Technology-Mortality mechanism in the past
• Values-Fertility mechanism in modernity?
• Demographic Transition Uneven
• Ethnic differentials have had political
  ramifications, but are declining
• Ethnic Makeover Accepted. What about religious
  makeover?
• Are religious populations more resistant to
  transition than secular?

3
Demography and Politics?

• Early Christianity, spread from some 40 converts
  in 30 A.D. to over 6 million adherents by 300
  A.D.
• Mormon church 40 percent growth in past century,
  widening fertility gap
• Evangelical Protestant growth in the 20th c. US
  ¾ demographic. 'Red states' have 12-point TFR
  advantage over 'Blue' in 2004 election
• Implications of the liberal-democratic-capitalist
  'End of History' model

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Q1 Secularisation

• "As this book will demonstrate
• 1. The publics of virtually all advanced
  industrial societies have been moving toward more
  secular orientations during the past fifty years.
  Nevertheless,
• 2. The world as a whole now has more people with
  traditional religious views than ever before--
  and they constitute a growing proportion of the
  world's population." (Inglehart Norris 2004)
• Which will dominate religious fertility or
  secularisation?

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"Conservative, religiously minded Americans are
putting far more of their genes into the future
than their liberal, secular counterpartsheavily
Mormon Utah annually produces 90 children for
every 1,000 women of child-bearing age. By
comparison, Vermont -- the only state to send a
socialist to Congress and the first to embrace
gay unions -- produces only 49Fertility
correlates strongly with religious conviction"
Philip Longman, The Empty Cradle (2004)
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Conclusion Secularisation

• Variation in Patterns of Secularisation
• Europe has secularised in terms of church
  attendance, but not in terms of religious feeling
• In Europe, more religious (Catholic) countries
  are secularising faster, less religious (mainly
  Protestant) countries have flatlined at very low
  (5-10) levels of church attendance
• USA has not secularised

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Conclusion Fertility

• After marital status, church attendance and
  religiosity among the strongest predictors of
  individual fertility
• Seems to be increasing its predictive power in
  secularising (Catholic) countries
• In secular (Protestant) countries, church
  attendance insignificant, but religiosity
  significantly predicts fertility
• Future Research USA, Islamic world, demographic
  predictions, 2000-2050

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http//www.sneps.net/RD/religdem.html
http//www.sneps.net/RD/religdem.html