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Kein Folientitel

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Estimation Continual * * Crop activites. ... Pigs Chicken a11,5 a12,5 a13,5 – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Kein Folientitel


1
Programing models 1
  • Motivation
  • Basic Elements
  • A Simple Example
  • General Assumptions
  • Lagrangean Method of Solving LP-Problems
  • Comparison with Behavioural Models

2
Why Use LPs in Sectoral Analysis?
  • Proven instrument individual farm planning and
    controlling.
  • Long Tradition gt Experience, Trust
  • Multiproduct interdependencies in agriculture
    are captured in the explicit
    representation of technologie (e.g.
    competition for scarce ressources...)
  • Simple representation of policy instruments
    (e.g. quotas, premiums, set-aside...)
  • Can be built upon technical Information

3
Basic Elements of LPs
  • Objective funktion Economic objective which
  • is to be optimized (Revenues, Costs...)
  • Restrictions describe the possible application
    and
  • combination of activities (e.g. Application of
    fix factors
  • such as Area, Barns, Quotas Interproduct
    relationships such as Fodder use,
  • crop rotation, etc.)
  • Activities Production, sale,purchase,onfarm
    usage...
  • Limitation fix factors, quotas, ..

4
Presentaion of LPs
  • as a tableau with rows and columns (for
    example in EXCEL)
  • in mathematic notation
  • with sumation signs
  • Vektors/Matrices

5
Structure of an examplary farm LP
RHS constraints
6
Example 1 mathematical presentation
7
Example 1 Solution Space
X1
6
5
X2
6
4
8
Example 1 Objective function
X1
6
5
X2
6
4
9
Example 1 Optimum
X1
6
5
X2
6
4
10
Solutions for different cs
X1
6
C1
5
X1
X2
6
4
11
Deducting Supply and demand functions
  • Parametrical price changes
  • leaping reaction
  • Supply function resembles a stairway

12
Basic Assumptions
  • Objective function is linear for volume of
    activities
  • Volume of activities can be fractioned
  • Constraints are linear for volume of activities
  • Adding up is fulfilled for rows
  • proportionality in columns
  • constant returns to scale
  • and regarding a single activity, substitution
    elasticity of zero

13
Lagrangean function (1)
14
Lagrangean function (2) activities
  • complementary slackness
  • If the contribution of the objective value covers
    the
  • opportunity costs of using fixed factors, then
    the activity
  • can be introduced
  • Should the objective value fall bellow, the
    volume of
  • the activity must be zero (i.e. it will not be
    introduced)

15
Lagrangeansatz (3) constraints
  • complementary slackness
  • If the constraint is binding, the dual value
    can be positive
  • if the constraint is not binding, the dul
    value must be zero

16
  • Questions up to this point?

17
Comparison LP and Behavioural Model
Theoretic foundation
Profit maximization
Profit maximization
?
?
Technology
Explicit, linear
Implicit
Estimation
Estimation
Generation
Literatur
Solving behaviour
Leapin
Continual
Continual
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