RE and the Climate Change Challenge:

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RE and theClimate Change Challenge
Can RE Technologies Deliver?
Steven Guilbeault, Greenpeace International
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Defining the Challenge

• UNFCCC Article 2
• Millions at Risk

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UNFCCC Article 2 Objective

• The ultimate objective of this Convention is
  to
• prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with
  the climate systemin time to
• allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate
  change, to
• ensure that food production is not threatened and
  to
• enable economic development to proceed in a
  sustainable manner.

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Additional millions at risk in 2050s
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Additional millions at risk in 2080s
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Thats Quite A Challenge

• Can RE technologies deliver ALL of that?

NO!
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What RE cant do

• Cope with IEA projected increases in electricity
  consumption
• Reverse global deforestation trends
• Energy efficiency MUST play a major role
• Unsustainable patterns of consumption and
• production must be transformed
• Transport

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What RE technologies CAN Do

• By the end of the century, renewables have the
  potential to provide nearly 100 of our energy
  needsindeed they must if we are to meet the
  climate change challenge.
• Existing RE technologies can provide a
  significant share of global electricity demand by
  2020, and a very large share by 2040.

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Working with the Industry

• Greenpeace working with industry?
• European Wind Energy Association
• European PV Industry Association
• Solar Thermal Power Industry Association
• And others

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Wind Force 12

• Wind Force 10 to Wind Force 12
• 27 fold increase in a decade

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WHAT CAN WIND DELIVER?

2020 11 of world electricity 2040 22 of
world electricity
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WIND FUTURES
Global Wind Power will be equivalent to reducing
...
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Global Wind Power will be equivalent to reducing
...
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SOLAR GENERATION

• Enormous technical potential, but expensive so
  far, although costs are coming down
• Growth is fast, but starting from a very small
  base.

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WHAT CAN SOLAR pv DELIVER?
2020 1 of global demand 2040 26 of
global demand

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SOLAR THERMAL

• New report
• Feasibility study like WF12 and SG
• Working with BOTH European and US industry
  associations
• Results

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Solar Thermal Can Deliver
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Three Technologies

Today 2020 2040
Wind 64.5 (twh) 3021 (twh) 12 8100 (twh) 22
Solar pv Ca. 2,5 TWh 276 (twh) 1 9113 (twh) 26
Solar Thermal Ca. 0,7 TWh 43 (twh) .16 3174 (twh) 5
Total 3340 (twh) 13 20,387 (twh) 53
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Next (for us)

• Geothermal technical potential w/existing
  technology 1 X current global energy demand
• Modern Biomass technical potential w/existing
  technology 40 of current global energy demand
• Marine Energy technical potential w/existing
  technology 5 of current global energy demand

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Meeting the Challenge?

• Role for government, industry and civil society
• Growth rates achievable similar to other energy
  technologies (Fax machines, PC, mobile phones,
  etc).

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An Important Step on The Road to Avoiding
Dangerous Climate Change and A Clean Energy Future
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• Steven Guilbeault
• Greenpeace International
• G
• www.greenpeace.org