Folie 1

1
ECODRIVE Ecosystem Change in the North Sea
Processes, Drivers, Future Scenarios 2009
2012

Overarching Theme Impact of Climate
2
http//www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/
3
NAO winter index
North Sea
Baltic Sea
NAO winter index, annnual temperature
minimum in the Intermediate Winter Water
(IWW) of the Bornholm Basin, Station K2, (solid
line) and annual SST anomalies at Helgoland
Roads (dashed line) Alheit et al. 2005

4
North Sea
Central North Sea, anomalies SST, phytoplankton
colour, dinoflagellates, diatoms Edwards and
Johns 2006
5
Regime Shift Nordsee
Edwards et al., SAHFOS Techn. Rep. (in press)
CPR data
6
Surface air temperature anomalies (Johannessen et
al. 2004)
AMO Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Kerr, Science, 2005


7
Relative SST anomalies, plotted as five-year
averages from 1910 to 2005. ICES Zooplankton
Status Report 2006/07 (OBrien et al. 2008)
8
Decadal changes in distributions of Northeast
Atlantic calanoid copepods, based on rate of
occurrence in CPR samples. Beaugrand (2005).
9
Anchovy catch rates courtesy D. Reid
1990 1995
2004
10
(No Transcript)
11
Fischereiwelt (1950)
Helgoländer Meeresunters. 4 (1953)
12
Sardine egg abundance, Engl. Channel (Hawkins et
al. 2002)
13
Spawning stock biomass (SSB) of Norwegian
spring-spawning herring and the longterm-averaged
temperature (the AMO signal) (Toresen og
Østvedt 2000)
Long-term averaged temperature
Stock collapse caused by overfishing under a
cooling climate
Start of the new herring period after 17 years of
fishing moratorium and the formation of the
outstanding 1983 year class
14
What is impact of interactions of NAO, AMO and
Global Warming on marine ecosystems?
Four winter climate regimes in SLP (Hurrell and
Deser, in press)
AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) (Kerr,
Science 2005)
15
ECODRIVE
Focus on Climate ? Impact of climate
variability ? North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO) ? Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
(AMO) ? Impact of Global Warming
Methods ? Field sampling ? Retrospective time
series analysis ? Continuous Plankton Recorder
? Helgoland Roads Series ? Modeling
16
Hering Clupea harengus
Sprotte Sprattus sprattus
Sardine Sardina pilchardus
Sardelle (Anchovis) Engraulis enchrasicolus
17
In this conceptual diagram, EVERYTHING is
inter-related. The colors denote
interactions. Approach discussed at IHF. Mike
sees stoplight approach as an important
visualization of ecosystem state (past, present
future). The approach shown can be used for
everything, or all ecosystem components or just
selected key species... The latter might be
better, but selling both is likely
worthwhile. WP1 compiles information on field
data and basic species-specific interactions
(trophic coupling between key species) and
includes basic ecophysiology (abiotic controls on
species groups, etc). Basically, this is a WP
where we assemble what is known. Additional
cruises (proposed field data collection) can be
added here. Knowledge from WP1 is then combined
with modelling efforts in WP2 that produce time
series (red blue purple). WP2 delivers time
series (e.g., stratification, temperature,
turbulence physical factors that influence
biology). The informed proxies come out of this
retrospective analysis (WP1 Wp2) along with
model improvement (NPZD groups better defined
based upon work from WP1. Yellow chosen here as
the third primary color. The combination of
yellow blue green (future scenarios).
Drivers like eutrophication and exploitation
levels/patterns should be included. Regional
downscaling based on IPCC scenarios can be used
to run hydrodynamics models... That drive future
change based upon work in WP4. The big circle is
project intergration WP (6)....
System Description (WP1)
Time Series (field data)
Ecophysiology (abiotic)
Trophic Coupling (biotic)
(WP6) project integration
(WP3) Past / Present Responses
(WP4) Informed Proxies
(WP5) Future Senarios
MSVPA ( Tertiary Exchange )
NPZD ( phyto- Zoopl )
Hydro- Climate (physics)
System Modelling (WP2)
18
Egg and larvae distribution of anchovies and
sardines in German Bight

1951
2003
19
Regime Shift Baltic Sea
Diatoms Dinoflagellates
Wasmund and Uhlig 2003
Changes on 3 trophic levels -
phytoplankton - zooplankton - fish
Alheit et al. 2005