EU Climate Change Policy

1

• Baseline developments for NEC Directie revision
• Projections Expert Panel
• 25 October 2007
• Dublin, Ireland
• Eduard Dame
• DG Environment C5, Energy Environment

2
Baselines

• 2005 CAFE Baseline
• 2006 NECD Member States baseline
• EU-wide baselines based on PRIMES 2005 model
• no carbon constraint
• 0 per ton CO2 in 2020
• low carbon constraint / with or without CCS
• 12 per ton Co2 in 2012 and 20 per ton CO2
  in 2020
• high carbon constraint / with or without CCS
• 90 per ton CO2 in 2020
• Coherent scenario
• - 22 CO2 reduction
• EU-wide baselines based on PRIMES 2007 model
• Business as usual baseline
• Greenhouse gas burden sharing baseline scenario

3
Cost implications of a more ambitious climate
scenario
4
GHG emission projections by Member States 2010
-2020

• EU27 2005 GHG emissions
• 7.9 below 1990 levels
• EU27 2010 GHG emissions
• Existing measures 5.0 below 1990 levels
• Additional domestic policies and measures under
  preparation 9.5 below 1990 levels
• Including EU ETS, Kyoto mechanisms and carbon
  sinks 14.2 below 1990 levels
• EU27 2020 GHG emissions
• 5.5 below 1990 levels

5
New baseline CO2 projections with PRIMES

• Primes is a partial-equilibrium energy model
• ? market clearing in the energy system taking
  into account individual behaviour of economic
  agents
• Baseline includes no new policies
• Assumptions used
• Annual EU27 GDP growth for the period 2005-2020
  of 2.4
• Annual EU12 GDP growth for the period 2005-2020
  of 4.5
• Includes EU ETS with carbon price
• 2010 20 /t CO2
• 2020 22 /t CO2
• ? previous run assumed carbon price of 5 in
  EU ETS

6
New baseline CO2 projections with PRIMES

• Global Energy prices are revised upwards in the
  new baseline compared to the baseline of 2005!
• Annual energy intensity
• Improved with 1.4 annually between 1990-2005
• Projected to improve with 1.8 annually between
  2005-2020!

7
Result Carbon intensity energy mix remains flat
in baseline
Source PRIMES
8
Result CO2 emissions increase again by 2020
Source PRIMES
9
Overall GHG baseline projections 2020 without
additional policies

• Non-CO2 gases (CH4, N2O and F-gases) from the
  GAINS model
• are estimated using National projections for the
  NEC directive that estimate future activity data
  from sources of non-CO2 gases
• CO2 from PRIMES (includes outbound aviation!)
• Projections 2020 compared to 1990 5.2
• Projections 2020 compared to 2005 7.9
• Non-CO2 from GAINS
• Projections 2020 compared to 1990 -25.3
• Projections 2020 compared to 2005 -5.8
• All GHG from PRIMES-GAINS
• Projections 2010 compared to 1990 -5.9
• Projections 2020 compared to 1990 -1.4
• Projections 2020 compared to 2005 5.4

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Compare different projections
Source Member States projections, PRIMES-GAINS
11
Energy consumption EU-272000, National
projections and PRIMES baseline 2020
12
Baseline emission projectionsEU-27, Current
legislation
13
Impact indicators for the baseline projections
14
Conclusions

• The new PRIMES baseline scenario has been
  implemented in GAINS.
• While for the EU-27 overall CO2 emissions are
  very similar, there are still discrepancies to
  national energy and CO2 projections.
• In total, air pollution emissions are similar to
  the national projections, and consequently the
  (baseline) air pollution impacts too.