Chapter 9. Understanding presidential Elections Elections

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Chapter 9. Understanding presidential Elections
Elections

• Bob Botsch -- Fall 2012

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Why predict ?

• entertainment -- like point spreads in sports
  media horse race
• helps candidates as the run
• exit polls help interpret vote

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Formal Mathematical Models

• Based on economic factors GDP, growth,
  inflation, real disposal income, interest rates,
  unemployment
• Attitudes job approval of incumbent, right/wrong
  track
• Pol Cycle of terms a party has held White
  Househard to win 3 straight!
• Example See PollyVote Ray Fair
  fivethirtyeight Princeton Consortium
• Work pretty well, but campaigns matteraffect
  undecided split

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Tracking Polls -- early efforts

• Literary Digest correct in 1924, 28, 32
• 1936 disaster with 2 million surveys sample
  bias
• Gallup/Roper/Crossley correct with small samples
• 1948 stopped too earlyquota sampling was biased

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How accurate?

• Snapshot in time limitation
• hardest in close electionssampling error
• hardest when hi make up mind late in
  campaignhow to divide undecideds
• Complicated by turnout estimates (lvs)
• generally good record (pp.299-300)
• Averaging poll results RCP average and Princeton
  Consortium average

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Exit Polls

• Early efforts based on early returns1952 Univac
  predicted Ike had 100 to 1 chance of winning, but
  network too afraid to make call
• First exit poll in 1968
• Media consortium pooling efforts since 1980s
  about 100k interviews 15k tel interviews
• most accurate kind of poll
• problem of competitive pressure to make early
  calls (2000 and Fla)
• Do early calls affect later voters? 1980 not so
  much

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Voter Models major factors

• partisanship -- Critical Election Theory
  growing polarization
• prospective or retrospective view of
  votersgreatly affected by filter of party id
• issues and personality balance in any election
• short term forces critical in close elections
  deviations from the normal vote

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1952, 1956 Personality

• Eisenhower vs Stevenson
• short term forces favors Republicans
• personality was critical I like Ike

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1960 near Normal election

• JFK vs Nixon
• short term favors Rep -- slightly
• Catholicism -- hurts in South -- helps in North
• movement of Af-Am minority to Dem swings election

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1964 Normal Election

• LBJ vs Goldwater
• short term favors Democrats
• Goldwater seen as radical -- issues help LBJ (the
  fraudlent peace candidate)
• Regional realignment starts 1964 Civil Rights
  Act and white South

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1968 Dealignment with regional Relaignment

• HHHumphrey vs Nixon vs Wallace
• short term issues favor Reps
• Issues split Democrats Vietnam and civil rights
  (Stroms role in the South)

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1972 Flip of 1964, More Dealignment

• Nixon (Peace with Honor) vs McGovern
• short term forces favor Reps
• issues and personality -- McGovern loses on both
  (the Eagleton fiasco)
• Dems lose more support in South

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1976 Rebuilding the New Deal Coalition?

• Carter vs Ford
• short term forces favor Democrats economy and
  Watergate
• retrospective judgment on trust
• personality -- Carter (never lie) more trusted
• Carter rebuilds southern base Normal Election?

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1980 Dealignment

• Carter vs Reagan
• short term forces favor Republicans misery
  index (unemployment/inflation/int rate)
• Retrospective judgment -- poor economy, Iranian
  hostage crisis -- the ABC election are u
  better off?
• more regional realignment the rise of the
  Reagan Democrats

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1984 A New Realignment?

• Mondale vs Reagan
• short term forces favor Republicans
• Retrospective judgment -- better economy good
  timing! (fortuna)
• Issues play small role -- voters closer to
  Mondale on issues
• reinforces regional realignment
• Gender gap appears

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1988 Three in a row!

• Dukakis vs Bush
• short term forces favor Republicans
• Retrospective reward to heir apparent -- good
  economy
• Dukakis seen as too liberal on issues

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1992 Rebuilding the New Deal again

• Clinton vs Bush vs Perot
• short term forces favor Democrats
• Retrospective judgment over personality -- poor
  economy -- the ABB election
• Clinton moves to center on issues
  (triangulation) -- New Democrats
• Perot distracts Bush but not a factor in end

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1996 Normal Election

• Clinton vs Dole vs Perot
• short term forces favor Democrats
• Retrospective judgment over personality -- good
  economy -- 1984 de ja vu

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2000 Almost 3 in a row

• Gore vs Bush2 vs Nader vs Buchanan
• Bush runs prospective campaign
• Retrospective judgment on economy favors Gore,
  but Gore disassociates from Clinton
• Personality favors Bush
• Minority winner, thanks 2 Nader and Supreme Court

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2004 Maximize the base

• Bush v Kerry
• Bush uses wedge issues (e.g. gay marriage) to
  turn out Republican base
• Ties Iraq to war on terrorism
• Personality--Candidate image critical wartime
  president vs weak flip-flopper with unpatriotic
  past

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2008 A normal election with short term factors
mostly helping Democrats

• New larger Dem base 51-38
• Retropspective factors help Democrats
• Historical low approval ratings of incumbent, in
  the 20s
• Majority view Iraq as a mistake
• Economic crisis tied to deregulation
• McCains poor response to crisis and vp choice
• Echoes of 1932, 1960, 1980, and 1992
• Get tired effect3 in a row is tough!
• Discipline, organization, , favor Dem
• Two factors hurt Democrats
• Ethnic antipathy depresses white Dem vote
• Divisive Dem primary helps GOP, but HRC helps
  bind the wounds

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2012? A Chance for Realignment Lost

• Democrats could have cemented advantages won in
  2008blown by marginal economic success (summer
  2012 economic numbers)
• Dealignment with rise of independents as
  largest groupsmaller Dem base
• Democratic success(?) was planned to turn on
  personal factors (trust and favorability), but
  lost that advantage
• Retrospective moving toward Obama--Gallup
• Prospective tends to favor Romney wrong track
• Will be remembered as a campaign in which a
  really bad first debate (almost?) decided the
  election
• Turnout is keywhy low turnout favors the GOPsee
  Pew Study of nonvoters

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2012? A Chance for Realignment LostContinued

• Wildcards
• Weather 1 Sandy, leadership image and
  independentsthe Chris Christi effect
• Weather 2 bad weather interacting with the
  enthusiasm gap, esp. wrt young voters
• Tracking Pollsthe rapidly rising refusal rate
  90!?!
• Early warning sign Tuesday evening?
• If Obama loses a state he is supposed to win,
  like Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania or Ohio, then
  all the projections were off.