Migration trends and migration policies in the European Union

1
Migration trends and migration policies in the
European Union

• Conclusions of the EEO from Day One and Summary
  of Background Material
• MISEP Meeting, Prague, 5-6 March 2009

2
Overview

• Migration is a multi-faceted issue focus on a
  number of important issues
• EU initiatives regarding migration
• Main migration trends (intra-EU and third country
  migration)
• Recent key trends in migration policy
• Tackling undeclared work by migrants without work
  permit
• Tackling brain drain
• Assisting the integration of migrants
• What are main challenges?
• Main policy lessons?

3
EU initiatives regarding migration

• Free movement of labour within EU is one of
  fundamental pillars but transition periods
  remain
• Focus on tackling illegal economic activities by
  third country nationals with 2007 Council
  Directive on sanctions for employers of illegally
  staying third country nationals.
• 2008 European Pact on immigration and asylum
• Focus on regulating and facilitating legal
  economic immigration, particularly by highly
  skilled workers (Blue card) and other specific
  groups of workers (e.g. seasonal)

4
Main migration trends

• Migrants active in key shortage areas (pre-
  economic crisis)
• ICT agriculture horticulture construction
  horeca domestic services transport retail
  health and social care.
• EU102 more likely to have shortage in skilled
  sectors (engineers skilled workers for
  manufacturing etc.)
• Shortage sectors vary from country to country
• Crisis is changing position, but some shortages
  remain

5
Main migration trends intra EU

• Intra-EU migration remains modest
• Average population share of EU10 nationals in
  EU15 countries increased from 0.2 0.5 between
  2003-2007 share of EU15 nationals in EU15 up
  from 1.6-1.7 share of non-EU nationals from
  3.7-4.5
• Impact greater on key receiving countries UK, IE,
  ES, IT
• Economic impact generally positive
• Short term negative impact on wages and
  unemployment turning positive in long term
• Some issues of brain drain and skill shortage
• Cultural and language barriers as well as
  recognition of qualifications remain barriers

6
Main migration trends third country

• Third country migration remains dominant trend
• Very different experiences from country to
  country depending on migration history, economic
  and cultural factors
• Net third country migration increased threefold
  between mid-1990s and 2000s.
• New trends include increased number of migrants
  from Central and South America and increased
  migration to Southern European countries
• Generally positive economic effect
• Skills complementary, with migrants entering
  sectors where demand is greatest

7
Main migration trends third country

• More negative effect on wages of low skilled
• Some evidence of brain waste but third country
  migrants in general lower skilled
• Third country migrants have lower employment and
  higher unemployment rates greater exposure to
  precarious employment particular issue during
  crisis
• Integration measures of particular importance

8
Main migration trends impact of crisis

• Most affected sectors some of those with highest
  concentration of migrants
• Shock absorber for host countries, but not
  sending countries context of global crisis?
• Some evidence of return flows
• Reductions in quotas work permits and
  alterations of hard of fill job lists (greater
  impact on third country migrants?)

9
Main migration trends impact of crisis

• Lack of reliable data, but some indications
• Some return of BG workers from ES
• Decline of nearly 8000 foreign workers in CZ
  since crisis a further 4000 foreign workers
  likely to be dismissed in 03/09
• In IE sectors where most EU12 migrants are found
  are those most hit by crisis redundancies and
  short-time working some return flows?
• Adjustments made to catalogue of hard to fill
  occupations reduction in quota by 90
  voluntary return programme (ES)
• 13 decline in number of work permits issued in
  second half of 2008 (LT)
• Decline in work permits to BG and R nationals,
  some indication of PL migrants arriving from UK
  and IE (NL)

10
Main migration trends impact of crisis

• Some evidence of return of R workers from ES and
  IT
• Quota reduced by 25 (SL)
• Some return flow of SK workers third country
  migration likely to be increasingly restricted
• UK workers to get first call on vacancies during
  recession some data on outflow from old
  Commonwealth countries in finance sector
• Increase in workers in agriculture and family
  businesses (TY)
• Significant return flow of migrants to home
  countries fewer work permits issued (ICE)
• Decreasing number of work permits (NO)

11
Recent trends in migration policy

• Easing of access
• Lifting of restrictions for EU102 nationals
• Simplified procedures to recruit in bottleneck
  strategic occupations , certain nationalities or
  seasonal workers
• Salary requirements to protect national labour
  markets or define high skilled segment
• Unified procedures for work and residence permits
  (Green Cards) and simplified entry procedures
• Better integration policies
• Increase in validity (or renewability of work
  permits)

12
Tackling undeclared work by illegal migrants

• More than half of EU countries said it is
  important issue and have introduced policies
• High magnitude
• 30-50 of migrants in Western Europe are illegal
• 2.8 6 million illegal workers in EU (estimate)
• D, UK, F, IT, ES some of most affected countries
• Causes varied
• Economic push and pull factors illegal practices
• Risks for all
• Individuals, sending and receiving countries
• Routes into illegality
• Illegal entry outstayed permit trafficking
  smuggling impact of EU enlargement and crisis

13
Tackling undeclared work by illegal migrants

• Policy failures?
• Understaffing at borders
• Inflexibility of rules bureaucracy
• Entry policies too restrictive
• Lack of enforcement of sanctions
• Lack of focus on push factors

14
Tackling undeclared work by illegal migrants

• Policies too restrictive and focussed on
  criminalisation?
• Impact of regularisation (mass or case by case)?
• Core policy focus is sanctions against illegal
  work trends for most reporting countries is to
  increase inspections, co-operation and penalties
  (CZ, F, CY, LV, LT, NL, A, UK) what is impact
  in long term?
• However, strategic flanking measures are also
  necessary
• For specific groups
• For countries with high number of illegal
  migrants
• Trafficking and other illegal practices
• Specific sectors with high incidence of illegal
  work

15
Tackling brain drain

• Main sectors affected scientists doctors
  nurses ICT specialists engineers experienced
  in building trade
• In some countries causes skill shortages and wage
  rises
• Pull factors experience, better working
  conditions
• Reasons for return personal
• Measures to encourage return include
• Information on job opportunities and working
  conditions at home promotion of business start
  ups (LT, LV, PL, R)
• Circular initiatives (also ethical recruitment)
• Improve opportunities at home (SL, TY for
  researchers)

16
Assisting integration of migrants

• Wide range of measures needed including
• Language
• Training and labour market integration
• Recognition of qualifications
• Housing
• Anti-discrimination
• Cultural integration
• Access to services
• Some not just for legal workers

17
Main challenges

• Intra-EU and third country migration separate
  issues
• Legal and illegal migration separate issues
• What is role of migration is context of
• Demographic change
• Knowledge society
• Lisbon/post Lisbon strategy
• Economic crisis
• Role of EU v. national policies

18
Main challenges

• Key policy concerns
• Address skills gaps and labour shortages
  maximise potential of intra-EU migration
• Address brain drain
• Address illegal migration (causes and impact)
• Integration of migrants
• Avoiding social exclusion
• Avoiding brain waste
• Avoiding 2nd and 3rd generation issues

19
Some policy lessons?

• Migration not only solution to demographic trends
  and skill/labour shortages
• Domestic workforce to be fully utilised in
  context of current and emerging skill needs
• Migration should be demand driven and migration
  policies should allow natural regulation
• Better evaluation of policies to tackle illegal
  working by third country workers without work
  permit
• Illegal practices such as trafficking to more
  effectively addressed
• Ethical recruitment practices to tackle brain
  drain
• Turning brain drain into brain gain by
  encouraging circular migration
• Addressing brain waste through recognition
  policies
• Better integration leads to win-win situation.