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MED-CSP Concentrating Solar Power for the
Mediterranean Region WP1 Sustainability Goals
WP2 Renewable Energy Technologies WP3
Renewable Energy Resources WP4 Demand Side
Analysis WP5 Scenario Market Strategies
WP6 Socio-Economical Impacts WP7
Environmental Impacts
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Assessment of Renewable Electricity
Potentials The threshold for economic
performance is defined by Renewable Energy
Performance Indicators like e.g. the annual full
load hours of Hydropower, the Direct Normal
Irradiation for CSP or Global Irradiation on a
tilted surface for PV. Together with the specific
investment cost, and other costing parameters,
those indicators define the cost of electricity.
Hydropower Technical and economic potentials
were taken from the literature. The annual full
load hours of plants installed at present are
used as performance indicator. The map of gross
hydropower potentials is only used for
illustration. Geothermal Power A map of
temperatures at 5000 m depth was taken to assess
the areas with temperatures higher than 180C as
economic potential for Hot Dry Rock technology.
Conventional geothermal resources are only
available to a small extend in Italy (already
used) and Turkey (about 1 GW). The technical HDR
potential for lower temperatures was not
assessed. For Europe, medium term geothermal
power potentials given in the literature were
taken for cross-checking. Biomass From the
literature, agricultural residues, e.g. bagasse,
which at present are mainly unused for power
purposes were taken as reference. An electricity
conversion factor of 0.5 MWh/ton of biomass was
assumed for the calculations. It was assumed that
80 of this potential will be used in 2050.
Municipal waste was assessed from literature and
from the growth of urban population. A municipal
waste productivity of 0.35 ton/cap/year and a
conversion factor of 0.5 MWh/ton of municipal
waste was assumed. 80 of this potential is used
until 2050. Solid biomass potentials were
assessed from a global map of biomass
productivity in tons/ha/year and from the forest
areas of each country. Only 40 of this
potential is used until 2050. Results were
cross-checked for plausibility with historical
data from European countries. There will be a
competition with traditional fuel wood use.
Annual full load hours are used as performance
indicator. Concentrating Solar Thermal Power
(CSP) High resolution assessment of direct
normal irradiation (year 2002) and of suitable
sites using GIS and satellite data. Until 2025,
the potential is limited by industrial CSP
production capacities. After 2025, demand becomes
the limiting factor. Resources are used only to a
small extend in MENA. In Southern Europe most
resources are concentrated in Spain, only minor
resources in the rest of Southern Europe.
Performance indicator DNI. A threshold of 2000
kWh/m²/year is used for the economic potential.
Wind Energy Wind power resources are given in
the literature for European countries and for
some MENA countries. For other countries, from
the wind map, electricity potentials were derived
taken into account wind speed and areal
restrictions. Areas with an annual production
over 14 GWh/y were considered as economic
potential. Results were cross-checked for some
countries that have made a national resource
assessment. Annual full load hours define the
performance. They are derived from literature,
from the World Wind Atlas and from the map.
Potentials include onshore and offshore. Wave
and Tidal power potentials were taken from the
literature. Performance Indicator are annual full
load hours. Photovoltaic Photovoltaic
applications are in principal unlimited. Using
present growth rates and scenarios for very large
PV systems and distributed applications, PV
potentials were assessed in a relatively
subjective way. For EU states, literature gives
mid term potentials for PV. Performance indicator
is the global irradiation on a surface tilted
according to the latitude (map and meteonorm
database). No economic threshold.
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Renewable Energy Resource Mapping
Biomass
Wind Energy
Geothermal Energy
Hydropower
Solar Energy
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Annual Global Irradiation on Surfaces Tilted
South with Latitude Angle in kWh/m²/year
Source ECMWF, ISET
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Annual Average Wind Speed at 80 m above ground
level in m/s
Source ECMWF, ISET
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Temperature at 5000 m Depth for Hot Dry Rock
Geothermal Power Technology
Source Bestec
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Biomass Productivity /Bazilevich 1994/
Forest Areas /USGS 2002/
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Summary of biomass electricity potentials from
Agricultural and Municipal Waste and Solid
Biomass
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Gross Hydropower Potentials in EU-MENA
per 30 x 50 km Pixel
Source Lehner, B., Czisch, G., Vassolo, S.
(2005) The impact of global change on the
hydropower potential of Europe a model-based
analysis. Energy Policy, Vol. 33/7 839-855 based
on Alcamo et al. (2003), Döll et al. (2003)
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Annual Direct Normal Irradiation on Surfaces
Tracking continuously the Sun in kWh/m²/year
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Renewable Electricity Performance Indicators
The indicators define the representative average
renewable electricity yield of a typical facility
in each country. They define the economic
potential of each country through the available
areas with this or better performance, and the
electricity cost of the average renewable
electricity plants.
Full Load Hours per Year
Annual Global Radiation on Tilted Surface
Full Load Hours per Year
Full Load Hours per Year
Annual Direct Normal Irradiation
Temperature at 5000 m Depth
Full Load Hours per Year
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Assessment of Land Resources The land resources
for the erection of renewable electricity
generating systems are limited by a series of
constraints. A geographical information system
was used to exclude sites with restrictions by
land cover and land use (water bodies, river
beds, swamps, agriculture, forests etc.), by
geo-morphological characteristics (salt pans,
sand dunes etc.), by slope higher than 2.1 , by
protected or otherwise used areas (natural parks,
airports, communities etc.). Such restrictions
where applied to concentrating solar power and
wind power systems. Population density was used
to estimate restrictions with respect to the
visibility and acceptance of wind parks (e.g. in
tourist areas). There are practically no
restrictions for small PV systems, but for large
ones approximately the same as for CSP. The
assessment of hydropower schemes is state of the
art and was not investigated here. No extra areal
restrictions where applied to biomass and
geothermal plants, as their area coverage is
intrinsically limited by technology-inherent
factors like the maximum distance for the access
to biomass or the maximum geothermal energy
density, respectively. Assessment of
Infrastructure Cost The cost of connecting a
power plant depends also on its distance to the
existing infrastructure, especially roads and the
electricity grid. For fossil plants, fuels can
be supplied by truck or pipeline. The
infrastructure costs depend in first place on the
location, only in second order on the size of the
power plant. Therefore, distances and
infrastructure costs are very critical for small
plants, and less critical for very large plants.
Infrastructure costs where calculated with
110,000 /km for roads and 100,000 /km for high
voltage interconnections. Expansion of
renewable energy technologies will start with
smaller units within the proximity of the
existing electricity grid and slowly expand to
larger distances as the unit size of wind parks
and CSP plants will increase. For very large
renewable power export schemes, remote areas with
very high irradiance or wind speed will
subsequently become economically attractive.
Therefore, economic potentials are considered to
be only limited by the renewable energy
performance indicators and not by infrastructure
costs. Access to Water Thermo-electric power
stations can use seawater, river water or air for
cooling the power cycle, depending on the
accessibility of those resources. Air cooled
plants can in principal be build everywhere, but
water cooling might be cheaper if available.
Inland CSP potentials were calculated with air
cooled systems only. CSP plants for combined
seawater desalination will be placed on the
shore. The areas for shore side CSP plants where
assessed separately for each country. They where
limited to sites that are not more than 20 meters
above sea level. The use of inland groundwater
resources for desalination and power plant
cooling was neglected. However, there may be
limited renewable water resources available for
that purpose.
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Exclusion Areas for Concentrating Solar Thermal
Power Plants in Southern Europe and Maghreb
Countries
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Exclusion Areas for Concentrating Solar Thermal
Power Plants in Western Asia and the Arabian
Peninsula
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Infrastructure Cost of Interconnecting a Power
Plant to the Euro-Mediterranean and Maghreb
Electricity and Road Grid
includes planned interconnections
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Infrastructure Cost of Interconnecting a Power
Plant to the Western Asian and Arabian
Electricity and Road Grid
includes planned interconnections
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Renewable Electricity Potentials in TWh/year
for Iran, the CSP potentials are still rough
estimates
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Exploitation Ratio of Renewable Electricity
Potentials until 2050
for Iran, the CSP potentials are still rough
estimates
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Country Analysis of CSP Potentials The following
section shows the CSP potentials for most
countries analysed in the MED-CSP study. The
map shows Direct Normal Irradiance in kWh/m²/y on
all areas that are not excluded from the land
resource assessment. One histogram shows how
much electricity (TWh/y) can be generated in each
class of Direct Normal Irradiance (kWh/m²/y).
This defines the Technical Potential and the CSP
performance indicator of each country. The
second histogram shows the same but only for
coastal areas not higher than 20 meters above sea
level (a. s. l.). This defines the technical
potential for CSP plants with combined seawater
desalination. There is also a list of
indicators that compares the existing CSP
potentials with the demand figures of each
country for the scenario described in WP
5 Technical Potential defined by all
non-excluded areas with a Direct Normal
Irradiance higher than 1800 kWh/m²/yEconomic
Potential defined by all non-excluded areas
with a Direct Normal Irradiance higher than 2000
kWh/m²/y Power Demand 2000 according
to the scenario described in WP 5 Power Demand
2050 according to the scenario described in WP
5 Tentative CSP 2050 according to
the scenario described in WP 5 Coastal
Potential economic potential
defined by all non-excluded areas with a DNI
higher than 2000 kWh/m²/y and 20 m a. s. l. Water
Demand 2050 power demand for
desalination in TWh/y according to the scenario
described in WP 5
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Morocco
Technical Potential 20151 TWh/y (DNI gt
1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential 20146
TWh/y (DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
15 TWh/y Power Demand 2050 235
TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050
150 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal Potential
300 TWh/y (lt 20 m a. s. l.) Water
Demand 2050 1.2 TWh/y (Power for
Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Algeria
DNI kWh/m²/y
Technical Potential 169440 TWh/y (DNI gt 1800
kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential 168971 TWh/y
(DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
23 TWh/y Power Demand 2050 249 TWh/y
(Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050 165
TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal Potential
57 TWh/y (lt 20 m a. s. l.) Water Demand
2050 2.8 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Tunisia
DNI kWh/m²/y
Technical Potential 9815 TWh/y (DNI gt
1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential 9244
TWh/y (DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
10 TWh/y Power Demand 2050 66
TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050
43 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal Potential
352 TWh/y (lt 20 m a. s. l.) Water
Demand 2050 1 TWh/y (Power for
Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Libya
DNI kWh/m²/y
Technical Potential 139600 TWh/y (DNI gt
1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential 139470
TWh/y (DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
19 TWh/y Power Demand 2050 44
TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050
22 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal Potential
498 TWh/y (lt 20 m a. s. l.) Water
Demand 2050 25 TWh/y (Power for
Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Egypt
DNI kWh/m²/y
Technical Potential 73656 TWh/y (DNI gt
1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential 73655
TWh/y (DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
71 TWh/y Power Demand 2050 631
TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050
395 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal Potential
496 TWh/y (lt 20 m a. s. l.) Water
Demand 2050 256 TWh/y (Power for
Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Malta
DNI kWh/m²/y
Technical Potential 2.3 TWh/y (DNI gt
1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential 1.9
TWh/y (DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
1.8 TWh/y Power Demand 2050 2.3
TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050
0.4 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal Potential
0.3 TWh/y (lt 20 m a. s. l.) Water
Demand 2050 lt 1 TWh/y (Power for
Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Portugal
DNI kWh/m²/y
Technical Potential 436 TWh/y (DNI gt
1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential 142
TWh/y (DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
42 TWh/y Power Demand 2050 51
TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050
10 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal Potential
7 TWh/y (lt 20 m a. s. l.) Water
Demand 2050 lt 1 TWh/y (Power for
Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Spain
DNI kWh/m²/y
Technical Potential 1646 TWh/y (DNI gt
1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential 1278
TWh/y (DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
213 TWh/y Power Demand 2050 213
TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050
25 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal
Potential 73 TWh/y (lt 20 m a.
s. l.) Water Demand 2050 3.4 TWh/y
(Power for Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Italy
DNI kWh/m²/y
Technical Potential 88 TWh/y (DNI gt
1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential
5 TWh/y (DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
299 TWh/y Power Demand 2050
256 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050
5 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal
Potential 3 TWh/y (lt 20 m a.
s. l.) Water Demand 2050 1TWh/y
(Power for Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Greece
DNI kWh/m²/y
Technical Potential 44 TWh/y (DNI gt
1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential
4 TWh/y (DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
50 TWh/y Power Demand 2050
56 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050
3.5 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal
Potential 0 TWh/y (lt 20 m a. s.
l.) Water Demand 2050 lt 1TWh/y (Power
for Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Cyprus
DNI kWh/m²/y
Technical Potential 23 TWh/y (DNI gt
1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential 20
TWh/y (DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
3.1 TWh/y Power Demand 2050 4.9 TWh/y
(Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050 0.9
TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal Potential
4.4 TWh/y (lt 20 m a. s. l.) Water Demand
2050 lt 1 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Turkey
DNI kWh/m²/y
Technical Potential 405 TWh/y (DNI gt
1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential 131
TWh/y (DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
121 TWh/y Power Demand 2050 425
TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050
125 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal Potential
12 TWh/y (lt 20 m a. s. l.) Water
Demand 2050 lt 1TWh/y (Power for
Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Israel
DNI kWh/m²/y
Technical Potential 3118 TWh/y (DNI gt 1800
kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential 3112 TWh/y
(DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
42 TWh/y Power Demand 2050 57 TWh/y
(Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050 22
TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal Potential
1.5 TWh/y (lt 20 m a. s. l.) Water Demand
2050 2.7 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Jordan
Technical Potential 6434 TWh/y (DNI gt
1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential 6429
TWh/y (DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
7 TWh/y Power Demand 2050
50 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050
40 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal
Potential 0 TWh/y (lt 20 m a.
s. l.) Water Demand 2050 3.5 TWh/y
(Power for Desalination)
DNI kWh/m²/y
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Lebanon
DNI kWh/m²/y
Technical Potential 19 TWh/y (DNI
gt 1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential
14 TWh/y (DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
9 TWh/y Power Demand 2050
25 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050
12 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal
Potential 0.2 TWh/y (lt 20 m a.
s. l.) Water Demand 2050 lt 1 TWh/y
(Power for Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Syria
DNI kWh/m²/y
Technical Potential 10777 TWh/y (DNI gt
1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential 10210
TWh/y (DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
23 TWh/y Power Demand 2050 166
TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050
117 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal Potential
0 TWh/y (lt 20 m a. s.
l.) Water Demand 2050 42 TWh/y
(Power for Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Iraq
DNI kWh/m²/y
Technical Potential 30806 TWh/y (DNI gt
1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential 28647
TWh/y (DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
31 TWh/y Power Demand 2050 257
TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050
190 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal Potential
61 TWh/y (lt 20 m a. s. l.) Water
Demand 2050 13 TWh/y (Power for
Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Bahrain
DNI kWh/m²/y
Technical Potential 36 TWh/y (DNI
gt 1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential
33 TWh/y (DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
5.8 TWh/y Power Demand 2050
6.9 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050
3.5 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal
Potential 21 TWh/y (lt 20 m a.
s. l.) Water Demand 2050 1 TWh/y
(Power for Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Qatar
DNI kWh/m²/y
Technical Potential 823 TWh/y (DNI gt
1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential 792
TWh/y (DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
9 TWh/y Power Demand 2050
5 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050
2.8 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal
Potential 324 TWh/y (lt 20 m a. s.
l.) Water Demand 2050 1 TWh/y
(Power for Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in UAE
DNI kWh/m²/y
Technical Potential 2078 TWh/y (DNI gt
1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential 1988
TWh/y (DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
36 TWh/y Power Demand 2050
24 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050
10 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal
Potential 538 TWh/y (lt 20 m a. s.
l.) Water Demand 2050 8 TWh/y
(Power for Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Kuwait
DNI kWh/m²/y
Technical Potential 1525 TWh/y (DNI gt
1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential 1525
TWh/y (DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
30 TWh/y Power Demand 2050
30 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050
13 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal
Potential 134 TWh/y (lt 20 m a. s.
l.) Water Demand 2050 2.2 TWh/y
(Power for Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Oman
DNI kWh/m²/y
Technical Potential 20611 TWh/y (DNI gt
1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential 19404
TWh/y (DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
8.5 TWh/y Power Demand 2050
35 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050
22 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal
Potential 497 TWh/y (lt 20 m a. s.
l.) Water Demand 2050 6 TWh/y
(Power for Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Potentials in Saudi
Arabia
DNI kWh/m²/y
Technical Potential 125260 TWh/y (DNI gt
1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential 124560
TWh/y (DNI gt 2000 kWh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000
119 TWh/y Power Demand 2050 305
TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050
135 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal Potential
2055 TWh/y (lt 20 m a. s. l.) Water
Demand 2050 99 TWh/y (Power for
Desalination)
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Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials
in Yemen
DNI kWh/m²/y