Bulgaria Today: Political

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Bulgaria Today Political Economic Issues

• Politics BG Style
• 1. The Slow and Painful Transition (1989-1997)

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The Great Change (1989-1991)

• BG in 1980s - no dissents, Turks, effect of
  perestroika, Russian TV and newspapers
• 1987-89 - human rights activism, PODKREPA
  trade-union, SU club, Zhelju Zhelevs book,
  environmental movement - EcoForum 10/89
• Todor Zhivkov Gone 11/10/89 - CP coup by the
  Loukanov, Dzhurov, Mladenov faction ousted the
  old guard - change from above that preserved the
  power of the CP and started its transformation
  into an economic might
• Controlled process of democratization - free
  speech, depolitization of army, free trade
  unions, rallies, etc.

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The Great Change (1990-91)

• Blue v. Red formation of the anti-Communist
  opposition (Union of Democratic Forces-broad
  coalition of 16 parties and civilian
  organizations of all colours centered on the idea
  of pluralism and peaceful and tolerant
  transition), CP turned BSP (fear of revenge).
  Art. 1 down
• Turkish Minority-Movement RightFreedoms
• Round Table talks bw opposition and BSP -
  power-sharing agreement in spring 1990 - free
  elections for Grand National Assembly,
  newspapersmedia access, rallies, forgotten past

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The Change in Photos
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Searching for the Truth (1990-1991)

• 06/10-17 elections BLUE v. REDS dirty
  campaign, polarization of the electorate(city-rura
  l areas, old-young, educated-uneducated), wishful
  thinking among UDF, disbelief of the results,
  anti-Communist rallies, City of Truth
• Mladenovs resignation Zhelev - President,
  Loukanov Prime minister, start of GNA
• Economic crisis fall 1990 - strikes, A. Loukanov
  resigns, power-sharing compromise under D. Popov
  - security services and economics reforms
  ministers of UDF, work over the constitution

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The Blues on Power (1991-92) - Philip Dimitrovs
cabinet

• Work over the constitution - slow, full of
  compromises, built in flaws in the new political
  system
• Discontent that the ex-Com still on power, split
  within the UDF over the constitution, hunger
  strike of 39 MPs
• July 91 - new constitution and elections
  scheduled
• Fall 91 campaign - UDF program of rapid economic
  reform, privatization, land restitution, NATO, EC
• Radical wing of UDF - won the election, BSP
  strong second, only MRF also present with MPs.

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Dimitrov Substituted with Berov (1992-94)

• Small majority of UDF, internal splits over
  economic reform, privatization, land reform,
  de-communization, role of Zhelev, role of MRF
  A.Dogan brought the cabinet down in fall 92
• Berovs cabinet - slowing down of radical
  reforms, support of BSP for the cabinet, criminal
  privatization, bank decapitalization, role of
  ex-militiamen turned businessmen (rich by the
  Yugoslav embargo)
• Resurgence of ex-Communists - won fall 1994
  elections

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More Photos
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Zhan Videnov Road to Disaster (94-97)

• BSP - absolute majority, 95-also in local
  elections
• Videnov as prime minister-close circle of
  advisers
• Corruption, state financed with loans
  bank-privatization, needed painful reforms
  delayed, stop to land restitution, ties with
  Russia but opposed Russian oil interests,
  distrust of the IMF WB
• Financial crisis second half 1996, rising prices,
  skyrocketing inflation, lack of consumer goods -
  resigns 12/96
• Discontent, anti-government rallies January 97,
  storming of Parliament, national strike,

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1997 On the Road to Reform

• New momentum for the UDF - new leaders Peter
  Stoyanov elected President, Stefan Sofianski -
  caretaker cabinet, Ivan Kostov - leader
• Sofiansky - changes dictated by IMF - monetary
  board
• Elections spring 97 - UDF majority with slogans
  for rapid reforms and economics restructuring,
  rapid privatization, end of land restitution,
  NATO
• Role of other UDF off-springs (National Union),
  MRF, monarchists, local party structures in the
  different coalition partners

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Summing Up BG Transition (89-99)

• Strong ex-Communists, much greater role than in
  CEE, orchestrated change from above, preserved
  economic levers, did not allow lustration
  practices, liked bi-polarization of the
  electorate
• United anti-Com coalition, preserved for longer
  time than in CEE, split bw radicals and
  moderates, coalition and party structures
  advocates, EU and US sympathies
• Painful economic restructuring, no early shock
  therapy, lack of foreign investments,
  pro-inflationary privatization, at the end -
  monetary board

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More Summing Up

• Political system bipolar (UDF_BSP) but with a
  strong check (MRF) with serious flaws highly
  personalized parties, splits and realignments -
  non-accountability to the voter, role of an
  ethnic party, distrust in democratic procedures
  among electorate, generational challenges
• Structural flaws in the system - constitutional
  laws that were required but not drafted, strong
  role of the President, shifting majorities in
  Parliament, corruption, voting system, role of
  media

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Bulgaria Today Political Economic Issues

• Politics BG Style
• 2. The Second Decade of Pluralist Democracy
  (1999-2008)

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The Political Elite the Challenges of the NATO
/ EU Agenda (1999 -2007)

• The Changes in the Political Social Agenda
  the constraints of the Monetary Board (no room
  for socio-political populist measures) the need
  for following the EU agenda the reforms
  overdue the impact of the geopolitical shifts in
  CEE (Kosovo99, 9/11)
• The ending transition elite transformations,
  generational change, business enters into
  politics, intellectuals withdraw from politics
  with moral dilemmas
• Moral challenges corruption, conflicts of
  interests, organized crime as a political factor,
  outside pressures

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Political System Transformations

• Decline of the traditional bi-polar confrontation
  and rise of new political forces and actors
• The Backlash of reforms and the 2001 elections
  Kostovs UDF lost to a powerful new actor
  Simeon of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha the last
  Bulgarian king who won an landslide victory for
  his newly formed NDSF movement
• The resurgence of the Socialists Georgi
  Parvanov defeated the UDF President Petar
  Stoyanov in late 01

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Political System Transformations (2)

• 2001-2005 NDSV MRF coalition for the first
  time MRF participated in government. Reforms on
  the road to the EU and social changes
• 2004 NATOs membership
• Road-map to EU starting 2007
• Chief Problems political fragmentation,
  corruption, reforming the judiciary, use of EU
  funds
• Radicalization of some electoral groups ATAKA
  as a phenomenon

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Bulgaria Within the EU

• Political challenges some anti EU sentiments,
  new political fragmentation (especially in the
  right side of the political spectrum),
• Since 2005 Triple coalition BSP, NDSV, MRF
  853
• Shifts in the electorate GERB of Sofia mayor
  Boyko Borisov (probably leading political force
  now since EUP elections 07), decline of NDSF and
  right wing factions (UDF, DSB), steady vote for
  BSP, MRF, ATAKA 2009 elections

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