Pobreza, Desigualdad, y Pol

1
Pobreza, Desigualdad, y Políticas Sociales en
América Latina Viejos Problemas, Nuevas
Posibilidades .

• Thomas J Trebat
• Institute of Latin American Studies
• Columbia University
• September 2011

2
Pobreza y Desigualdad en la Región
Latinoamericana. Evaluación, Remedios

• Some progress being made Will it continue?
• Better safety nets and social assistance
• Absolute numbers of the poor have declined
• Yet poverty and inequality remain very high in
  Latin America
• And no doubt contributes to the low rates of
  economic growth

• Better, more targeted economic and social
  policies are needed
• Tax and expenditure policies
• Labor market policies
• Credit and insurance markets
• Access to education
• Healthcare policy
• Social safety nets
• Early childhood programs to combat malnutrition
  and begin education

3
Pobreza Conceptos y métodos de mensuración

• Wide range of definitions from lack of resources
  to lack of capabilities or freedom
• Lack of resources (a severe constriction of the
  choice set over commodities (Watts, H.)
• Unmet basic needs (food, shelter, basic services)
• Capability deprivation (Sen, A.).
• Different concepts lead to different measurements
  and policy intervention designs
• Human Opportunity Index (HOI World Bank)
• Human Development Index (UNDP)
• Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI Oxford
  University)
• Unmet Basic Needs Index, others

4
Tomado de CEPAL (2008)
5
Pobreza ha estado en declinio
Evolution of Poverty (4 US per day) and GDP
1980 2008 in LAC
6
Aunque elevada todavía, desigualdad también está
cayendo.(Source World Bank, September 2009)
Gini Coefficient, Latin America (circa
2004-2005)
Sub-Saharan Africa (circa 2005)
OECD (Average- circa 2005)
6
7
Cambios en tasas de desiguladad entre 2002 e
2008 en AL
Tomado de CEPAL (2009)
8
Dos niños latinoamericanos
Probability of completing sixth grade on time
Jamaica
Argentina
Child with four siblings in a rural single-parent
household, with illiterate parent and per capita
income of US1
Mexico
Chile
El Salvador
Venezuela
Panama
Bolivia
Paraguay
Uruguay
Honduras
Ecuador
Child with one sibling in an urban two-parent
household, with completed secondary education and
per capita income of US25
Costa Rica
Dominican Rep.
Colombia
Peru
Guatemala
Nicaragua
Brazil
9
Hiatos enormes en educación básica
10
Dos niños uruguayos Probability of a preventive
dental visit (previous 6 months)
Child with four siblings in a rural single-parent
household, with illiterate parent and per capita
income of US3
Child with one sibling in an urban two-parent
household, with completed secondary education and
per capita income of US30
11
Dos niños argentinos Probability of 2-5yo
children receiving early education
Child with four siblings in a rural single-parent
household, with illiterate parent and per capita
income of US4
Child with one sibling in an urban two-parent
household, with completed secondary education and
per capita income of US25
12
Dos niños paraguayos Probability of having
potable water in the house
Child with four siblings in a rural single-parent
household, with illiterate parent and per capita
income of US1
Child with one sibling in an urban two-parent
household, with completed secondary education and
per capita income of US25
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(No Transcript)
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Índice de Desarrollo Humano (IDH PNUD)

• Desarrollo humano visto como capacidades para
  llevar una vida digna.
• IDH incluye 3 dimensiones
• Ingreso/ nivel de vida (PIB per cápita PPA en
  dólares).
• Longevidad (esperanza de vida al nacer).
• Nivel educacional (tasa de analfabetismo y tasa
  de matrícula combinada).

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Índice de Desarrollo Humano para América Latina
en 2011

• http//hdr.undp.org/en/data/trends/

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Human Opportunity Index
Chile
Uruguay
Argentina
Costa Rica
Venezuela
Mexico
Jamaica
Colombia
Ecuador
Brazil
Dominican Rep.
Paraguay
Bolivia
Peru
Panama
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Nicaragua
Human Development Index
Chile
Argentina
Uruguay
Panama
Mexico
Costa Rica
Peru
Brazil
Venezuela
Ecuador
Colombia
Jamaica
Dominican Rep.
El Salvador
Bolivia
Paraguay
Honduras
Nicaragua
Guatemala
Doing Business
Mexico
Peru
Colombia
Chile
Panama
Jamaica
El Salvador
Dominican Rep.
Guatemala
Paraguay
Argentina
Nicaragua
Uruguay
Costa Rica
Brazil
Ecuador
Honduras
Bolivia
Venezuela

92
91
88
88
87
86
81
79
76
76
73
71
69
69
69
53
51
48
46
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
17
Human Development Index
Norway
Canada
Sweden
France
US
Spain
Italy
UK
Germany
Portugal

89
83
82
81
77
77
73
71
69
67
Human Opportunity Index (Education)
Canada
UK
Sweden
Germany
Norway
France
Spain
US
Portugal
Italy
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Doing Business
US
UK
Canada
Norway
Sweden
Germany
France
Portugal
Spain
Italy
HOY for education calculated as a simple
average of HOIs for reading, mathematics and
science in PISA. For the US average of
mathematics and science only.
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Cuáles son los factores que explican la caída en
tasas de pobreza?

• Macro stability and growth is necessary for
  poverty reduction, but what is required is that
  the poor benefit from that growth.
• Poverty reduction episodes driven by remittances
  or good luck may or may not be sustainable.
• Poverty reduction episodes driven by employment
  or productivity increases seem to be
  characterized by fundamental changes which may be
  long-lasting.
• Social spending help to reduce poverty when well
  targeted but unlikely to be the main driver.
  Evidence of infrastructure investment having
  positive impact on poverty

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Pobreza y crecimento económico- relación estrecha
Poverty and GDP evolution in Latin America and
the Caribbean
19
20
Altas tasas de trabajo informal persisten en la
región

• Extremely high rates in Andes
• Lower rates in Chile and Costa Rica
• About 50 of the labor force is in the informal
  sector
• Mainly in services
• Productivity extremely low in services
• See the graph

21
Gastos expresivos con políticas sociales
Source CEPAL.
22
Brasil ingresos de los más pobres estan
creciendo a tasas altas
Source Brazil Economic Team using data from PNAD
(IBGE)
23
Brasil Factores que explican la caída en la
pobreza

• Most of the reduction in poverty is due to an
  increase in labor income

Source Barros et al (2010).
24
Las cuentas fiscales ayudan a entender la
disminución de la pobreza? Sólo en parte..

• Social spending tends not to be progressive and
  is probably regressive in many respects
• Subsidies to tertiary education, generally high
  in Latin America, benefit the wealthy
  disproportionately
• The same is true for pension payments
• No pension systems for informal workers
• Innovations Conditional Cash Transfers Do Target
  the Poor

25
Efectos redistributivos de diferentes gastos
gobernamentales en América Latina
Social Assistance
Progressive Expenditures
Education
Primary Education
Secondary Assistance
Tertiary Assistance
Regressive Expenditures
Health
Housing
Pensions
Total Social Spending
- 0.3
- 0.2
- 0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Source Americas Quarterly, spring 2008
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Argentina Polítcas sociales mejoran la
distribución del ingreso nacional
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Programas tipo Bolsa Famila en 1997
Source Fiszbein Schady (2009)
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Programas tipo Bolsa Familia en 2008
Source Fiszbein Schady (2009)
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Programas condicionados de transferencia de renta
en America Latina
PROGRAM COUNTRY DATE START
BOLSA FAMILIA (EX-COLSA ESCOLA, BOLSA ALIMENTAÇÃO BRAZIL 1995 AND 2003 (BF)
OPORTUNIDADES (EX-PROGRESA) MEXICO 1997
PROGRAMA DE ASIGNACIÓN FAMILIAR (PARF) HONDURAS 1998
SUPERÉMONOS COSTA RICA 2000
RED DE PROTECCIÓN SOCIAL MI FAMILIA (RPS) NICARAGUA 2000
FAMILIAS EN ACCIÓN COLOMBIA 2001
BONO DE DESARROLLO HUMANO AND BECA ESCOLAR ECUADOR 2001 AND 2003
CHILE SOLIDARIO CHILE 2002
PATH JAMAICA 2002
RED SOLIDARIA EL SALVADOR 2004
FAMILIAS POR LA INCLUCIÓN SOCIAL ARGENTINA 2005
TARJETA SOLIDARIA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 2005
RED DE PROMOCIÓN Y PROTECCIÓN SOCIAL PARAGUAY 2005
PROGRAMA JUNTOS PERU 2005
Source Americas Quarterly, spring 2008
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Familias en Acción

• Education subsidy
• Cash subsidy for households with children 7 -17
  years old, conditioned on enrollment and
  attendance (80 of the time).
• Large cities subsidy is for children between 11
  and 18 yrs old and varies by grade.
• Bimonthly subsidy of 30,000/child in elementary
  school and 60,000/child in secondary school (up
  to 120,000 for youth in 11th grade in some
  cities).

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Programas bien enfocados sobre las necesidades de
los más pobres
Source World Bank 2009
31
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Por qué se expanden los programas condicionados
de tranferencia de renta?

• Success as social assistance good targeting,
  cost effective
• Success in raising service use schools, health
  services
• Improvements in outcomes nutrition, health,
  learning, income gains
• Good governance objective, verifiable targets,
  etc.
• Modest cost for the government 0.4 of GDP
• But not a substitute for jobs

33
Otros enfoques de la politica social contra la
pobreza y desigualdad

• Extending pension benefits more broadly
• Access to healthcare
• The educational system and its impact on
  inequality
• Early childhood programs

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Cobertura de pensiones y jubilaciones todavía
limitada
34
35
Disponibilidad de seguro salud fuera del alcance
de los pobres
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36
Falta de atención adecuada a los problemas de los
más jovenes
Evolution of Chronic Child (lt5 year old)
malnutrition in Peru
36
37
Baja inversión en programas enfocados sobre la
niñez(OECD countries invest up to 1.8 of GDP)
37
Source UNESCO Global Monitoring Report 2007
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Oportunidades humanas nuevas políticas
sociales son necesários

• More Emphasis on Early Childhood
• Pregnant Mothers
• Institutional delivery
• Invest More on Primary Education
• Reading Standards
• Mathematical Skills
• Protect Teenagers
• Detect Talent
• Physical Security
• Open Access to Information
• Libraries
• Local Governments

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En resumen la pobreza y la desigualdad seguirán
en declínio en América Latina?

• Access to higher education remains a huge
  obstacle
• This is significantly lower quality for the poor
• And most poor do not make it to universities
• A large share of public spending is still
  regressive
• Taxes are severely underused as an instrument of
  redistribution
• State capture by elite groups artificial
  monopolies, etc.
• Substantial tax reform is needed
• Income taxation
• Estate taxation
• Of course, expansion in employment opportunities
  most important
• Macroeconomic growth
• Improvements in the business environment

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Debate